New project opportunities

Transcription

1 New project opportunities Extension of the RCMGiS project objectives Tamás Illy, Gabriella Szépszó Hungarian Meteorological Service Closing Event of the EEA Grants Adaptation to Climate Change Programme 19 April 2017

2 OUTLINE 1. RCMGiS summary 2. New projects, opportunities 3. Summary

3 Summary of RCMGiS project RCMGiS (New climate scenarios based on the change in radiative forcing over the Carpathian Basin; EEA-C13-10) Project coordinator: Hungarian Meteorological Service Project partner: Eötvös Loránd University Funding: EEA Grants Time frame: április 21. 3

4 RCMGiS objectives 1. Development of climate model data for NAGiS 2. Evaluation of model results 3. Climate data provision for impact assessments 4. User support, trainings, consultations április 21. 4

5 RCMGiS objectives 1.) Development of climate model data for NAGiS Simulations with ALADIN-Climate (OMSZ), RegCM (ELTE) Historical (past) and projection (future) experiments Two applied scenarios ALADIN-Climate: RCP8.5 RegCM: RCP4.5 Radiation forcing [W/m 2 ] április 21. 5

6 RCMGiS objectives 1.) Development of climate model data for NAGiS Simulations with ALADIN-Climate (OMSZ), RegCM (ELTE) Historical (past) and projection (future) experiments Two applied scenarios ALADIN-Climate: RCP8.5 2.) Evaluation of model results Validation of model data against observations Evaluation of projection results RegCM: RCP4.5 To quantify uncertainties in climate projections based on two simulations Good start, but needs further improvement! április 21. 6

7 RCMGiS objectives 3.) Climate data provision for impact assessments Example studies in topics: Climate change impact on the water budget of lake Balaton (György Varga) Climate change impact on crop growth in Hungary (AGRATéR) Climate change impact on human health, tourism, critical infrastructure (CRIGiS) 4.) User support, training, consultations User workshops (2015 & 2016) Participants: climate scientists; impact researchers from sectors: human health, agriculture, hydrology, forestry; local government representatives Consultation with climate scientist from Norway (2015) Idea of an international climate change workshop at OMSZ április 21. 7

8 International Climate Change Workshop Participants: Climate scientists Impact researchers Copernicus Climate Change Service representatives Aims: from Hungary, Norway and RC-LACE members To discuss experiences, challenges in climate and impact research and climaterelated communication To establish partnerships with donor countries C3SURF To establish partnerships with other European countries DECM április 21. 8

9 Further steps, targets 1. Extension of climate data 2. Uncertainty assessment 3. Climate data provision 4. User support április 21. 9

10 KLIMADAT project KLIMADAT (KEHOP) Az éghajlatváltozás magyarországi hatásainak feltérképezése regionális klímamodell-szimulációk elvégzésével és reprezentatív éghajlati adatbázis fejlesztésével Responsible: OMSZ Objective: To improve the available climate data for Hungary 1.) Further model simulations 2.) Extension of high resolution gridded observational database 3.) Process, evaluate all results 4.) Data provision for climate adaptation system április

11 Budapest 1km x 1km KLIMADAT project 1.) Further model simulations RCM simulations with ALADIN-Climate and REMO Apply both scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) for both RCMs Possibility to quantify uncertainty originating from different sources (model & scenario uncertainty) Impact research on urban climate with SURFEX model High resolution (1 km) downscaling of the RCM results over selected urban areas április

12 KLIMADAT project 2.) Extension of high resolution gridded observational database Improve the gridded meteorological observational database for Hungary: CARPATCLIM-HU Extension in time with data after 2010 Increase output frequency from daily to 6-hourly output 3.) Process, evaluate all results Validation, assessment of climate change signal Quantification of uncertainty (model & scenario) 4.) Data provision for climate adaptation system Training for users április

13 KLIMADAT project Added value to RCMGiS outcome: Results with one more RCM: REMO Both optimistic and pessimistic scenario applied to both models More complex representation of uncertainty! Impact study on urban climate with the SURFEX model Dynamical downscalig of RCM results to 1 km resolution április

14 C3S SURF project Climate monitoring products for Europe based on Surface in-situ Observations (C3S SURF) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) project Objective: to deliver a climate monitoring service as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service based on observed European surface climate variables. Consortium leader: KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Partners: Economic Interest Grouping EUMETNET (EIG EUMETNET), DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst, EDI, Eidgenössisches Department des Innern - MeteoSwiss, Met Norway, Meteorological service of Norway, OMSZ, Hungarian Meteorological Service, GCRI, Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute, UEA, University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, ZAMG, Austrian weather and geophysics service Timeframe: Slide made by: Mónika Lakatos (lakatos.m@met.hu) április

15 DECM project Data Evaluation for Climate Models (DECM) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) project Objective: Mapping user requirements, evaluation and quality control of the climate model data for the C3S Data Store In collaboration with: Finland, Norway, Denmark, Germany OMSZ responsibility: Produce a detailed catalogue of the available global and regional climate model results CMIP5 global model results CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) regional results Timeframe: április

16 Project on agriculture Interdiszciplináris Kutatóműhely Létrehozása a Klímaadaptív és Fenntartható Mezőgazdaságért (GINOP) Led by: Centre for Agricultural Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Objective: Provision of climate model data from a well selected model ensemble for agricultural impact assessments Selection of a representative RCM ensemble from EURO-CORDEX (all sources of uncertainty represented) DECM experience can be utilized Bias adjustment of the most relevant meteorological variables Time frame: április

17 Summary 1. Extension of climate data 2. Uncertainty assessment 3. Climate data provision 4. User support KLIMADAT április

18 Summary 1. Extension of climate data 2. Uncertainty assessment 3. Climate data provision 4. User support KLIMADAT C3S SURF április

19 Summary 1. Extension of climate data 2. Uncertainty assessment 3. Climate data provision 4. User support KLIMADAT C3S SURF DECM április

20 Summary 1. Extension of climate data 2. Uncertainty assessment 3. Climate data provision 4. User support KLIMADAT C3S SURF DECM GINOP április

21 Summary 1. Extension of climate data 2. Uncertainty assessment 3. Climate data provision 4. User support KLIMADAT C3S SURF DECM GINOP All targets pursued in further projects! Thanks for your attention! április