2005 Integrated Electricity Plan. Resource Options Workshop #2 Planning Criteria March 09, 2005

Transcription

1 2005 Integrated Electricity Plan Resource Options Workshop #2 Planning Criteria March 09, 2005

2 Agenda for Presentation Introduction Review industry reliability standards and regulatory Generation Reliability Criteria Dependable Capacity Firm Energy Transmission Reliability Criteria Distribution Reliability Criteria Next Steps: ROR filing and review process 4/15/05 Page 2

3 Objectives of this session Understand industry standards for reliability and BC Hydro s Planning Criteria Understand how reliability is factored into portfolios: dependable capacity firm energy Outline ROR filing set expectations for how stakeholders will input into ROR 4/15/05 Page 3

4 Reliability - definition Adequacy The ability of the electric system to supply the aggregate electrical demand and energy requirements of their customers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system elements Security The ability of the electric system to withstand sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements. 4/15/05 Page 4

5 Why Planning Criteria and how are they used? Ensure BC Hydro has a reliable system Requirement to meet certain planning criteria to be connected to western North America grid Dictate when new resources or upgrades are needed for reliability 4/15/05 Page 5

6 Regulatory and Reliability groups 4/15/05 Page 6

7 Regulatory Authority BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) BCUC has regulatory authority over BC Hydro, and approves BC Hydro s reliability standards. NERC (National Electricity Reliability Council) NERC is a voluntary organization that is responsibility for Transmission reliability standards in the US NERC is promoting the development of a new mandatory system of reliability standards and compliance, backstopped in the United States by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 4/15/05 Page 7

8 Regional Reliability Councils Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Establishes mandatory operation standards and guidelines that describe good planning practices Required by NERC to establish a resource adequacy processes 4/15/05 Page 8

9 Western Interstate Board and CREPC Western Interstate Board is an organization of 3 provinces (including BC) and 12 western states Committee on Regional Electric Power Cooperation (CREPC) Concentrating on resource assessment 4/15/05 Page 9

10 Conclusions for Regulatory All regulatory agencies and governments at all levels are interested in Reliability Due to the interconnection of the bulk electric system, joint planning and co-ordination is required. Questions? 4/15/05 Page 10

11 Reliability : Customers and BCH perspectives Generation Transmission Distribution CHL zero 15% 85% Consequence -severe - severe -local - system wide - wide spread -outages problems blackouts - economic - economic - local impacts impacts impacts Customers Customer Hours Lost (CHL) Time to Restore frequency Duration 4/15/05 Page 11

12 Generation Reliability Planning Capacity Criteria 4/15/05 Page 12

13 Customer Demand and Energy / Capacity Supply Demand 1/3 industry, 1/3 commercial, 1/3 residential variable needs throughout the day and seasonally DEMAND Supply Energy (annual total - GWh) Capacity (instantaneous - MW) 4/15/05 Page 13

14 Dependable Capacity A generating plants dependable capacity is the maximum megawatt output it can reliably produce when required, assuming all units are in service Reliably Produce: means availability coincident with system peak with high confidence level Dependable Capacity is affected by factors external to the plant I.e. streamflow conditions; fuel supply constraints; wind Not affected by: Forced outages not included - in planning reserves Planned outages not included - assumed to be scheduled around winter peak 4/15/05 Page 14

15 Dependable Capacity - calculation methodology Major Generating Plants with upstream storage: - 85% confidence level of assumed 50 years stream flows Existing IPP projects: - based on actual performance (85% confidence level ) Planned IPP projects: - based on their contracted capacity Projects in Resource Options Database: - some projects have site specific information available (Site C, Rev5), others base on class average Dependable Capacity Factors 4/15/05 Page 15

16 Constraints in Generation Systems Energy Constrained Capacity Constrained System Hydro Systems Thermal Systems Adequacy Annual Reserve Margin Metric Load/Resource Balance Constraint Fuel Limited Machine limited 4/15/05 Page 16

17 Constraints in BC Hydro s System BC Hydro historically was energy constrained, but now capacity requirements are often driving new resource acquisitions. Both energy and capacity reliability metrics are required and used by BC Hydro Peak Load (MW) 6,816 7,513 8,646 10,143 Capacity Reserve 33% 26% 25% 15% 4/15/05 Page 17

18 Dependable Capacity Factors in 2004 IEP Resource Type DCF Resource Type DCF Small Hydro Alternative Vancouver Island 0.57 Biomass 1.0 Selkirk-South Interior 0.06 Geothermal 1.0 Peace River 0.20 Tidal 0.05 North Coast 0.01 Wave 0.05 Lower Mainland 0.14 Wind 0.0 Kelly Lake - Nicola 0.08 Thermal East Kootenays 0.06 Coal 1.0 Central Interior 0.08 Natural Gas 1.0 4/15/05 Page 18

19 Capacity Reliability Planning Methods Deterministic Planning Reserve Margin Probabilistic Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) [probability] Hourly Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) [probability] Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) [kwh/year] Economic reliability planning (Shortage Value) 4/15/05 Page 19

20 Generation Capacity Adequacy Metrics Increasing computation complexity Adequacy Aspect Frequency Duration Magnitude Value Shortage LOLP LOLE EUE Value!!!!!!!!!! 4/15/05 Page 20

21 Target Planning Reserve Margins Reserve Margin 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% BC Hydro CPUC Avista Pacificorp Idaho Power Portland General Electirc Puget Sound Electirc Hydro Quebec 4/15/05 Page 21

22 BC Hydro s Capacity Planning Criterion 14% planning reserve calculated from LOLP analysis Criterion is 1-day-in-10-years Peak Load Forecast 1:2 Design Temperature Duration curve for daily values Resource Counting Dependable capacity Forced outage rates LOLP Analysis Output 14% reserve margin (includes 400 MW from intertie) Peak load carrying capability of system 4/15/05 Page 22

23 How is Capacity Planning Criteria used? Dictates when new capacity resources are required in order to maintain reliability L/R Balance Peak Load Forecast 1:2 Design Temperature 12,000 11,000 10,000 Output from LOLP 14% reserve margin 400 MW (intertie) 9,000 8,000 7,000 Existing Supply Heritage Contract IPPs and contracts 6,000 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 4/15/05 Page 23

24 Example 4/15/05 Page 24 Note: From Pacificore public information sessions

25 Wind Workshop on Dependable Capacity Wind workshop on Jan 25 where there was a lot of discussion about Dependable Capacity Suggestion put forward to use Expected Load Carrying Capability methodology Study underway to test new method 4/15/05 Page 25

26 Expected Load Carrying Capability Peak Load Forecast 1:2 Design Temperature Duration curve for daily values LOLP Analysis Output Expected Load Carrying Capability (MW) Resource Counting (existing Heritage) Dependable capacity Forced outage rates 1000 MW MW New Resources frequency 4/15/05 Page 26

27 Generation Reliability Planning Energy Criteria 4/15/05 Page 27

28 Energy Capability Average energy - expected annual energy for hydro is based on average water conditions average energy for dispatchable thermals incorporates economic dispatch Small hydro, wind, wave etc.: Currently not enough information to discern firm & average in portfolios Firm energy - what a project can generate annually on an assured basis based on historic low water for BC Hydro projects for thermals - based on installed capacity, fuel supply & unit availability 4/15/05 Page 28

29 Monthly Demand and Supply 4/15/05 Page 29

30 Energy Planning Criteria in hydro systems Account for annual hydro variability Hydro Generation Firm energy capability of Heritage hydro assets based on critical low flow period : 43,000 GWh Critical Period /15/05 Page 30

31 Energy Planning Criteria for Heritage Assets Critical Water Firm Energy Heritage Hydro 43,000 GWh Firm Energy Burrard 6,000 GWh 49,000 GWh Average Water Year Heritage Hydro 47,000 GWh Average Burrard usage or imports 2,000 GWh 49,000 GWh 4/15/05 Page 31

32 BC Hydro Long term goal for Reliability of Energy Supply BC Hydro will plan to have sufficient generation capability in BC to be able to meet domestic demand in any given year. BC Hydro will continue to import electricity on a short term basis will do so when it results in a lower cost of energy compared to dispatching domestic resources eg. high gas prices combined with high heat rate for Burrard system will be planned so that imports are not required to meet domestic load 4/15/05 Page 32

33 BC Hydro Domestic Requirements vs. Firm Capability: Heritage Resources plus BC Hydro Purchases 1,2 60,000 50,000 Forecasted Data Energy (GW.h) 40,000 30,000 Historical Data Firm Capability Heritage Thermal and/or Economic Market Purchases Heritage Hydro (critical water), (see note 1) BC Hydro Firm Purchases (IPPs), (see note 2) Domestic Requirements (including losses) 20, High Load Forecast with Power Smart 2004 Reference Forecast with Power Smart 10, Low Load Forecast with Power Smart - F1994 F1995 F1996 F1997 F1998 F1999 F2000 F2001 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 Fiscal Year (year ending March 31) 1. Heritage Hydro includes existing and planned Resource Smart (including Revelstoke Unit 5 in 2011). 2. BC Hydro firm purchases (IPPs) include the two 1,000 GWh calls, the Duke Point Power Project on Vancouver Island and an allowance for attrition from existing EPAs. Source: Historical firm capability values for Heritage Thermal, Heritage Hydro and BC Hydro firm purchases (IPPs) : BC Hydro Demand Supply Outlooks from ; Future firm capability values for Heritage Thermal, Heritage Hydro and BC Hydro Firm Purchases (IPPs) : BC Hydro Supply Demand Outlook released December 13, 2004; Domestic Requirements (including losses) : BC Hydro Load Forecasting added losses to the Domestic Requirements item in the BC Hydro Annual Reports ; 2004 High, Reference and Low Load Forecasts with Power Smart : December 2004 BC Hydro Load Forecast 4/15/05 Page 33

34 BC Hydro Domestic Requirements vs. Firm Capability: Heritage Resources plus BC Hydro Purchases 1,2 Energy (GW.h) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 G.M. Shrum Mica Peace Canyon Revelstoke Historical Data Forecasted Data Firm Capability Burrard Heritage Hydro (critical water), (see note 1) Firm Purchases (IPPs), (see note 2) Domestic Requirements (including losses) 2004 High Load Forecast with Power Smart 2004 Reference Forecast with Power Smart 2004 Low Load Forecast with Power Smart Relative Surplus Firm Capability 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Relative Surplus Firm Capability 10,000 5% 0% - -5% F1966 F1968 F1970 F1972 F1974 F1976 F1978 F1980 F1982 F1984 F1986 F1988 F1990 F1992 F1994 F1996 F1998 F2000 F2002 F2004 F2006 F2008 F2010 F2012 F2014 Fiscal Year (year ending March 31) 1. Heritage Hydro includes existing and planned Resource Smart (including Revelstoke Unit 5 in 2011). 2. BC Hydro firm purchases (IPPs) include the two 1,000 GWh calls, the Duke Point Power Project on Vancouver Island and an allowance for attrition from existing EPAs. Source: Historical firm capability values for Heritage Thermal, Heritage Hydro and BC Hydro firm purchases (IPPs) : BC Hydro Demand Supply Outlooks from and Annual Reports from ; Future firm capability values for Heritage Thermal, Heritage Hydro and BC Hydro Firm Purchases (IPPs) : BC Hydro Supply Demand Outlook released December 13, 2004; Domestic Requirements (including losses) : BC Hydro Load Forecasting added losses to the Domestic Requirements item in the BC Hydro Annual Reports ; 2004 High, Reference and Low Load Forecasts with Power Smart : December 2004 BC Hydro Load Forecast 4/15/05 Page 34

35 5,000 4,800 4,600 4, IEP results Self Sufficiency Gas & Electricity Price Forecast High NEB EIA Alt HR Confer NPV ($Millions) 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 EA1 Non-Firm Imports for Incremental Demand EA2 3,000 GWh per year Non-Firm Imports (CCGTs) EA3 Energy Self- Sufficiency (CCGTs) EA4 3,000 GWh per year Energy Surplus (CCGTs) 4/15/05 Page 35 EA5 3,000 GWh per year Non-Firm Imports (Fixed Cost Resources) EA6 Energy Self- Sufficiency (Fixed Cost Resources) EA7 3,000 GWh per year Energy Surplus (Fixed Cost Resources)

36 Transmission Reliability Planning 4/15/05 Page 36

37 WECC/NERC Planning Standards (Revised April 10, 2003) Includes mandatory standards and guidelines that describe good planning practices Requirements are primarily to avoid cascading outages and affecting the control area s neighbour. Minimum operating reliability general system instability, uncontrolled separation, cascading outages, or voltage collapse will not occur as a result of any single contingency or multiple contingency of sufficiently high likelyhood Single contingencies (N-1) should not lead to loss of demand or curtailed firm transfers (although interruptions to local network customers connected to the faulted element may occur) 4/15/05 Page 37

38 WECC Mandatory Operating Reserves Greater of - single contingency - sum of 5% (hydro) and 7% (thermal) of load WECC also sets requirements for spinning reserve BC Hydro is part of Northwest Power Pool, which has a reserve sharing agreement. 4/15/05 Page 38

39 Transmission Planning and IEP BC Hydro gives portfolios to BCTC, who indicate what reinforcements are required to meet N-1 contingency and other stability requirements. Questions? 4/15/05 Page 39

40 Distribution Planning 4/15/05 Page 40

41 Distribution Distribution Reliability is currently undertaken based on historical performance of the distribution system combined with performance targets for improvement or maintenance of current performance. The system performance is measured in terms of frequency and duration of outages including the resulting Customer Hours Lost (CHL) metric. Based on actual performance and economics, Distribution targets areas where frequent, long and high number of customers impacted outages have occurred. 4/15/05 Page 41

42 Distributed Generation and Reliability Distributed Generation may have some benefit in local area and affect CHL metric. This is not measured in our portfolio analysis. Distributed Generation could have some cost savings in Distribution Lines that is not accounted for in our portfolio analysis. May be able to apply general rules of thumb for cost savings. 4/15/05 Page 42

43 Reliability - Summary Objective of Reliability met by: 14% capacity planning reserve MW interie Firm energy to meet load under critical water N-1 contingency for transmission planning Questions? 4/15/05 Page 43

44 Resource Options Report Built around supply curves for resource types: small hydro, wind, thermal,. Supply curves to be put on web for comment starting early April draft ROR Report mid-may comments end May ROR filed mid-june 4/15/05 Page 44

45 Sample Supply Curve Small Hydro 4/15/05 Page 45

46 Sample Supply Curve Wind $160 $140 $120 Unit Energy Cost ($/MWh) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Average Annual Energy (GWh) 4/15/05 Page 46

47 Regulatory Review of ROR BCUC will have a review process for ROR BC Hydro expects review to be limited to areas of material difference in views with respect to: types of resources to be included in portfolio analysis quantity of resource available price for various quantities of the resource Differences, if any, will have surfaced and be documented through stakeholder engagement processes (regional workshops, resource options workshops, provincial committee) 4/15/05 Page 47

48 Questions? For more information visit our website: call BC HYDRO 4/15/05 Page 48