National Mitigation Roadmap & its MRV - What and how do we track Korean mitigation progress? -

Transcription

1 National Mitigation Roadmap & its MRV - What and how do we track Korean mitigation progress? - June 4, 2018 Regional Capacity-building Workshop on Transparency under the UNFCCC Jae Jung

2 Table of Contents 1 Background & History 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement National Mitigation Roadmap & its MRV 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others 2

3 1 Background & History 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement National Mitigation Roadmap & its MRV 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others

4 1 Background & History 2009 Feb Establish the Presidential Committee on Green Growth 2009 Jul Formulate the national strategy for Green Growth and 5-year implementation plan 2009 Nov Set up the national mid-term reduction target 0% reduction below Business-As-Usual scenario by 2020 as NAMA 2010 Apr Enforce the Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth 2010 Jun Establish the GHG Inventory & Research Center of Korea (GIR) 2011 Jan Implement Target Management Scheme (TMS) 4

5 1 Background & History 2011 Jul Establish National Mitigation Roadmap (1st) for 2020 target 2011 Dec First publish annual basis National Inventory Report (NIR) 2014 Jan Establish revision of National Mitigation Roadmap (2nd) for 2020 target and implement National Mitigation Roadmap 2015 Jan 2015 Jan Implement Emissions Trading Scheme 2015 Jun 2016 Dec Submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) including 200 target 7% reduction below Business-As-Usual scenario by 200 Establish a basic version of National Mitigation Roadmap (rd) for 200 target and formulate specific contents of the Roadmap by June, 2018 Evaluation of the Roadmap Implementation for Jan Evaluation of the Roadmap Implementation for Jan Evaluation of the Roadmap Implementation for 2016

6 1 Background & History 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Forest Statistics by KFS - Report from local forest office, yearly 1960 Agriculture and Fisheries Statistics by SK - Complete survey, every 5 yrs 1961 National Electricity Statistics by KEPCO - Report from power generation companies and plants, yearly 1964 Trade Statistics by KCS - Report from regional customs office, monthly 1975 Mining Production Statistics by MKE - Report from companies, monthly 1981 National Forest Resource Survey by KFS - Sample survey + interview, every 5 yrs 1981 National Energy Survey by MKE & KEEI - Sample survey + interview, every yrs 1986 Energy Balance by KEEI - Report from relevant associations, corporations, and companies, monthly (yearly from 198) 1994 Oil Demand and Supply Statistics by KNOC - Report from gas station to relevant associations, monthly 1996 National Waste Statistics by ME - Sample survey + interview, every 5 yrs 6

7 1 Background & History 1960s ~ 2000s Aug ~ 09.Jun/ Joint research team established for GHG emission projection (BAU scenarios) - 8 institutes including KEEI, KIER, KEI and etc. participated for 10 months - energy modeling(markal) and economic modeling(cge) - 6 sectors and 10 sub-sectors Feb/ Presidential Committee on Green Growth(PCGG) established Jul/ Nat l Strategy for Green Growth and 5-year Implementation Plan announced Aug/ Review Committee selected scenarios and announced by PCGG - 21%, 27%, and 0% reduction for low carbon development Aug ~ Oct/ over 80 times of public hearings for months - 2 intensive special discussions - industries(over 0 times), NGOs and citizens(44 times) - public opinion poll(2 times) Nov/ National voluntary mid-term reduction target of 0% below BAU by 2020 set Jun/ GIR established by the enforcement of the Framework Act on LCGG Jun ~ 2011.Apr/ Mitigation potential analysis through modeling for 11 months - various modeling tool for scientific comparison(leap, MESSAGE, AIM,) - 7 sectors and 25 sub-sectors - designed low carbon development paths for 2012, 201, and 2015 Apr ~ Jun/ Sectoral sub-target setting - GIR and relevant ministries - over 0 times of public hearing from experts and ministries Mar/ Target Management Scheme(TMS) - 1st performance plan submitted by controlled entities to GIR (May) Dec/ GIR started publishing annual National Inventory Report (NIR) Jan/ Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) 7

8 1 Background & History 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement National Mitigation Roadmap & its MRV 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others 8

9 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth Article 1 (Purpose) The purpose of this Act is to promote the development of the national economy by laying down the foundation necessary for low carbon, green growth by utilizing green technology and green industries as new engines for growth, so as to pursue the harmonized development of the economy and environment and to contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of every citizen and the take-off to a mature, top-class, advanced country that shall fulfill its responsibility in international community through the realization of a low-carbon society. Article 9 (National Strategy for Low Carbon, Green Growth) (1) The Government shall establish and enforce the national strategy for low carbon, green growth, which shall include the targets of the State s policies for low carbon, green growth, the strategy for promotion, and main tasks of promotion. Article 9 (Basic Principles for Coping with Climate Change) 2. It shall establish the State s medium and long-term targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases by analyzing costs of and benefits from the reduction of greenhouse gases in the economic aspect and taking domestic and overseas conditions into consideration and promote the reduction of greenhouse gases efficiently and systematically by introducing a cost-effective, reasonable regulation system based on pricing functions and market system 5. It shall be prepared against natural disasters on a large scale and changes in environmental ecosystem and the status of crops, minimize impacts of climate change, and protect the safety and property of citizens from such dangers and disaster. 9

10 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement No. 61 of 100 National Policy Tasks in Moon Jae-in Administration Title : Establishment of robust implementation system under new climate regime Competent Ministry : Ministry of Environment Cabinet Decision-Making Process - National Mitigation Roadmap Committee on Green Growth Office for Government Policy Coordination Prime Minister s Secretariat Technical Working Group Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Korea Rural Economics Institute (KREI) and etc. Transformation Industry Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI), Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET), Korea Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) and etc. Ministry of Environment Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Research Center of Korea Transport Building Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries Korea Transport Institute (KOTI), Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT) and etc. Waste Ministry of Environment Korea Environment Cooperation Forestry Korea Forest Service National Institute of Forest Science (NIFS) and etc. 10

11 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement Key Organizations Committee on Green Growth Secretariat of the Committee (8th Committee) (Office for Government Policy Coordination) Co-chairs : Prime Minister, Private Expert Head : Vice Minister Deputy Head : Director General Member : 17 Public Officials, 25 Private Experts Structure - Teams, 14 Gov t Officials Major Functions Major Functions - Review & Advice on Key Plans & Policies Establishment - Support for the Committee - Guide on Policy Planning at Ministry Level - Policy Evaluation (e.g. Mitigation actions by sector) Ministry of Environment, Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Research Center of Korea (GIR) Head : President (Director-General level) Structure - Teams, 50 Experts Major Functions - Operation of national GHG MRV system and publication of NIR (NIRS, NGMS, TMS, ETS) - Support for establishment of national GHG reduction targets and ETS operation - Int l Cooperation (UNFCCC negotiation, NC/BUR preparation) 11

12 1 Background & History 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement National Mitigation Roadmap & its MRV 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others 12

13 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV NMR (July, 2011) + Revised NMR (Jan, 2014) < Roadmap > < MRV > - 7 Sectors & 25 Sub-sectors (e.g. Industry Sector, Iron & Steel Sub-sector) - MR: Sectoral Ministries (<- Org. for specific stats. or Associations or Corporations..) - PMO(Office for GPC) + 8 Ministries - V: PMO(Office for GPC) (<- GIR + Sectoral institutes or agencies) pages, including sectoral mitigation targets + plan + mitigation P&Ms (with indicators) - Evaluation Plan for Implementation Progress - Meetings & public consultations during 2010 Jun ~ 2011 Apr, 201 May ~ October - Economic Impact (GDP change) 1

14 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV Mitigation P&Ms (with indicators) Transformation (Power Generation) 14

15 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV Mitigation P&Ms (with indicators) Transport 15

16 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV Mitigation P&Ms (with indicators) Building Waste 16

17 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV Evaluation for implementation progress of 2014, 2015, : 1st 2015: 2nd - Internally published in May, 2015 (24 pages) - Internally published in April, 2015 (29 pages) - Internally published in April, 2017 (155 pages) - Inter-ministerial meeting (Nov, 2014) Step 1 selfevaluation Step 2 MoE evaluation - Inter-ministerial meeting (Jan, 2016) Step 1 selfevaluation Step 2 PMO (OGPC) evaluation - Inter-ministerial meeting (Jan, 2017) Step 1 selfevaluation Step 2 PMO (OGPC) evaluation - For the 1st year, relevant stats. were not collected Qualitative Evaluation - For the 2nd year, relevant stats. were collected (but not completely) Quantitative + Qualitative Evaluation - For the rd year, relevant stats. were collected (mostly) More Quantitative + Qualitative Evaluation - Among 51 P&Ms of 7 Sectors, 1 delayed (Waste) - Among 51 P&Ms of 7 Sectors, delayed (Industry, Agriculture, Transformation) - Among 48 P&Ms of 7 Sectors, delayed and 1 insufficient (Industry, Transport, Waste) 2016: rd 17

18 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV an example of indicators 1st BUR 2nd BUR 18

19 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV an example of indicators 19

20 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV an example of indicators 20

21 National Mitigation Roadmap and its MRV the easy vs. the difficult (1) Transformation Share of renewable energy for electricity generation (%) vs. Emissions reduction thru low-carbon tech (tco2eq.) (2) Industry Substitution of fuel (toe) / Installation of equipment (each) vs. Emissions reduction thru process improvement (tco2eq.) () Transport No. of electric car registered (each) vs. Emissions reduction thru process improvement (tco2eq.) (4) Building No. accreditation for zero energy building (each) vs. Public transportation promotion (?) (5) Public No. of green remodeling projects (each) vs. Efficient street lighting distribution (%) (6) Agriculture No. of energy conversion facilities (each) vs. Emissions reduction thru low methane 사료 distribution (tco2eq.) (7) Waste Recycling rate (%) vs. Methane gas recovered at landfill sites (tch4) 21

22 1 Background & History 2 Legal & Institutional Arrangement National Mitigation Roadmap & its MRV 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others 22

23 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others Achievements NIR 2011 NIR 2012 ROADMAP 2011 ROADMAP 2014 NIR 201 ROADMAP 2016 NIR 2014 NIR 2015 NIR 2016 NIR 2017 ROADMAP 2018? 2

24 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others Achievements NC1 (FEB 12, 1998) NC2 (DEC 1, 200) NC (MAR 20, 2012) BUR1 (DEC 29, 2014) BUR2 (NOV 16, 2017) 24

25 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others GHG emissions Trend : Achievements? 25

26 4 Our Achievements/Challenges & Suggestions for Others (1) T/D modeling for projection at national level B/U modeling for P&Ms analysis - Several different ways of projection and target setting with macro variables like pop., gdp.. and T/D modeling can play a critical role for checking ex-ante future emissions trajectory - But, no implications on technologies (e.g. electric car) and weak at how to - Alignment between the two and try to develop most likely scenarios with various feasible sectoral P&Ms (2) Selection of indicators (Accuracy in GHG reduction or GHG reduction potential?) - Selection of indicators first depends on current data availability or future data collection plan - But, in most cases, very limited P&Ms indicator-related national or relevant stats. have been collected previously and data collection needs a lot of financial and human resources - Focus on physical, tangible evidences (something countable, measurable) and then, estimate GHG impacts () Sustainable and systematic P&M-level data collection for evaluation - Activity data, Technology (stock, lifetime, efficiency..) data, Cost data, GHG data, and etc.. (e.g. LED bulbs) - But, those are too much at the beginning and it will take a long time to build such a system - Start from macro-level evaluation regularly (biennially then annually) thru national level inventory compilation & projection - Do cooperate with domestic project operators to deal with micro-level data (CDM projects?) and try to strengthen your ownership and train local experts as many as possible! 26

27 감사합니다 THANK YOU / synerjae@gmail.com