Toward Zero Net Energy/Carbon Buildings And Cities. G r e g K a t s, C a p i t a l E

Transcription

1 Mana ging Our Planet, Jan 2012 Toward Zero Net Energy/Carbon Buildings And Cities G r e g K a t s, C a p i t a l E

2 Source: LBNL

3 Source: LBNL

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5 Gas vs. PHEV: Total Cost Of Ownership ( per Mile) Source: Perspectives on Energy Security and Transportation

6 Tons of CO2 per person Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only) United States Netherlands Canada Australia Belgium California Denmark Switzerland Japan Austria Italy France Germany New Zealand S. Korea 5.00 Mexico intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar)

7 Politics bends toward reality (I hope) Republican Governor/Candidate Huntsman: GOVERNOR HUNTSMAN: The minute that the Republican Party becomes the anti-science party, we have a huge problem. We lose a whole lot of people who would otherwise allow us to win the election in When we take a position that basically runs counter to what 98 of 100 climate scientists have said, what the National Academy of Sciences has said about what is causing climate change and man s contribution to it, I think we find ourselves on the wrong side of science, and, therefore, in a losing position. - August 2011 on ABC

8 Systematic Regulatory Risk: Impact of Expiring Tax Credits on Annual Wind Market Source: The Reality of U.S. Energy Incentives, AWEA, 2011

9 Cost of Building Green Source Greening Our Built World Additional cost to build green: Evidence from 146 green buildings Median in the data set: <2% added cost Public misperception: 17% added cost* % 1-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 5-6% 6-7% 7-8% 8-9% 9-10% 10-11% 11-12% 12-13% 13-14% 15-16% 16-17% 17-18% 18-19% *2007 opinion survey by World Business Council for Sustainable Development Range of reported premiums

10 $/Sf Costs and Benefits Costs and Benefits of Green Buildings: Present value of 20 years of estimated impacts based on study data set collected from recent green buildings $12 $10 $8 Green School Green Office increased building cost water savings direct energy savings $6 $4 $2 $0 Additional benefits not estimated: +Productivity and student performance +Property Value impacts +Indirect water systems impacts +Brand +Operations and Maintenance savings +Embodied energy savings

11 Health & Learning Benefits of Green Schools Increased Learning, Productivity & Performance (3%) Increased Future Earnings of Students (1.4%) Reduced Asthma (25%) Reduced Colds and Flu (15%) Reduced Teacher Turnover (3%) Source: Greening Our Built World (Island Press, 2010)

12 $/Sf Costs and Benefits of Green Buildings Costs and Benefits of Green Buildings: Present value of 20 years of estimated impacts based on study data set and synthesis of relevant research* $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 Green School Green Office increased building cost health water savings energy savings indirect energy savings employment $8 emissions $6 $4 $2 $0 Additional benefits not estimated: +Productivity and student performance +Property value impacts +Indirect water systems impacts +Brand improvements +Operations and maintenance savings +Embodied energy savings *There is significantly greater uncertainty, and less consensus around

13 Green Building Benefits: Increased Rent, Sales & Occupancy 1 st Quarter 2008 Non-LEED LEED Certified Offices Difference % Change Occupancy rates 88% 92% 4% 5% Rent ($/SF) $31 $42 $11 35% Property value ($/SF) $267 $438 $171 64% 1 st Quarter 2008 Non-Energy star Energy Star Offices Difference % Change Occupancy Rates 88% 92% 4% 5% Rent ($/SF) $28 $31 $3 11% Sale Price ($/SF) $227 $288 $61 27% Source: CoStar analysis, 2008

14 All Building Types are Greening Comcast Building Wentworth Commons - IL

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16 Brand Impact of Greening Greening impacts: three Sources of Brand Equity Increased brand awareness (e.g., free media exposure) Greater preference due to specific attributes (e.g., better IEQ) General non-attribute preference (e.g., association with quality, lower risk) AAA rating LEED > Zero net energy > living buildings

17 Green Buildings becoming very big globally GB reaches scale tipping point if it exists it must be possible! Public to private New to existing Snapshot to continuous Volume > place based scale GB based on LEED - becomes design norm globally (global brand) Branding benefits of Green keep growing (green-= quality), becomes dominant rationale New financing mechanisms: Biggest market/challenge is deep retrofits of existing buildings Next target zero net energy buildings, campuses, cities, countries

18 Need to Increase annual energy efficiency financing from $20 billion to $150 billion Double digit returns Scaling models Rigorous M&V Standardization Report on

19 % energy use reduction % green premium Advanced energy savings and green premium: 18 buildings from the study data set Advanced energy savings and green premium: 18 buildings from the study data set 140% 14% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% energy savings (yellow bars indicate the use of onsite renewables) green premium 0% Building ID # 0%

20 Toward zero net energy Buildings potential today: 60-85% energy use reduction (higher level prob requires ground source heat pumps and/or heat exchangers and/or on-site natural gas cogen (if sufficient thermal load) Enveloppe Cool materials Phase change materials Corporate workforce real estate/travel System Solutions eg full daylight harvesting Electrochromic windows + dimmable lights + sensors Balance is renewables PV: BOS is 60% - must be all digital, integrated and competitively bid 400 GW potential rooftop

21 Eliminating Peaking Power and T&D should drive huge investments Berkeley Wireless Research Center

22 Smart Grid Investments: Load flattening AND shifting source: FERC Assessment of Demand Response & Advanced Metering 2009 assumptions: smart meters, dynamic pricing default, enabling technologies

23 Net Zero Building By load shifting and intelligently adjusting interior temperatures, BuildingIQ optimizes HVAC operations, balancing : reduced energy usage/cost maintained or improved occupant comfort maximized DR event performance Building as energy storage In net zero buildings this strategy: zero solar uses the building s thermal mass as energy storage to balance volatile renewable sources forecasts and adjusts timing of peak HVAC loads to match renewable power supply BIQ optimized HVAC wind ice storage

24 Levelized District Optimization ensures Net Zero Cities Use predictive energy optimization in 2 ways: At District Level: DemandCenterIQ and ManagerIQ form a Net Zero NOC that: predicts and analyzes DR capacity and energy storage capacity to aggregate electronically dispatches DR using OpenADR. Net Zero NOC Portfolio/ Campus Energy Management Facility-level Predictive Energy Optimization At Facilities level: BuildingIQ: provide operational and analytical oversight on entire portfolio and campus from predictive, real-time, historical perspectives. Rolling Optimized Reserves Block of building loads before optimization Target Usage and Demand ceiling Block of building loads after optimization (rolling)

25 How the SageGlass Product Works Clear State

26 SKYLINE GUARANTEES CUSTOMER SAVINGS THROUGH PRICE-INDEXED ENERGY OLD UTILITY BILL SAVINGS SAVINGS SKYLINE BILL NEW UTILITY BILL BEFORE SKYLINE AFTER SKYLINE Guaranteed energy savings as a service to mid-sized commercial sector Zero capital outlay and long term operating expense reduction Turnkey program: design, finance, install, maintain, monitor Ongoing energy savings and environmental reporting 26

27 Global Cool City Network 27

28 Green Building Performance Database: (screenshot only for now)

29 MMT CO2 CO2 Impact Green Scenario Emissions With Additional Policy Actions 1990 Building CO2 Emissions BAU CO2 Emissions Green - Efficiency and All Renewables (50% offsite reduction) Green - Efficiency and Renewables (Full) Green - Greener Conventional Energy Supply Obama Administration Goal

30 Billions Greening = Wealth and Jobs Creation NPV of Net Benefits of BAU and Green $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 BAU Green $0 ($200) ($400) Green Premium NPV only direct energy Plus water Plus health Plus societal energy Plus societal CO2

31 For more information: Greening Our Built World is available on Amazon/ ipad Re: green building database contact Thank you!