Werkelijke energievraag en impact gebruikersgedrag. Marc Delghust

Transcription

1 Werkelijke energievraag en impact gebruikersgedrag Marc Delghust

2 DATA post-hoc MODEL predict DESIGN impact

3 DATA post-hoc MODEL predict DESIGN impact

4 old vs. new old housing neighbourhood current standard housing neighbourhood

5 old vs. new: space heating real gain??? theoretical gain

6 Blame it on the user?

7 or on the building?

8 or on the modeller?

9 or on the model?

10 TECHNICAL DEFAULT VALUES

11 TECHNICAL DEFAULT VALUES MODELLER & CONTEXT

12 STANDARD PROFILES: HEATING & VENTILATION

13 space heating: 1 zone? Master bedroom heated?

14 heating <> ventilation Probability of heating Probability of open windows

15 STANDARD PROFILES: HEATING & VENTILATION BLAME IT ON THE USER?

16 Energy consumption Rebound effect η 0 E 0 E 1pr calculated savings actual savings η 1 rebound share E 1th s 0 s 1 Service demand (Haas & Biermayr, 2000)

17 Temperature take-back (Milne & Boardman, 2000)

18 old vs. new old housing neighbourhood current standard housing neighbourhood 18

19 Temperature take-back: building level Old neighbourhood Standard neighbourhood old standard

20 Temperature take-back: room level Old neighbourhood Standard neighbourhood

21 user profiles = building + behaviour bathroom vs. living room Old Standard High performance

22 user profiles = building + behaviour living room gas boiler (not low temperature) low temperature / heat pump

23 STANDARD PROFILES: HEATING & VENTILATION THE MODEL & THE DESIGNER

24 DATA post-hoc MODEL predict DESIGN impact

25 EPB/EPC Single-Zone θ Quasi-steady-state t

26 EXTENDED MODEL Multi-Zone θ Quasi-steady-state t

27 EXTENDED MODEL zonal differentiation Heating Ventilation Internal heat gains Solar heat gains

28 EXTENDED MODEL different profiles

29 Models: 1-zone: Flemish EPB

30 Models: Multi-zone (corrected ventilation & heating profiles)

31 predicted savings single-zone bias Loft insulation overestimated savings Double glazing Cavity wall ins. underestimated savings Floor insulation

32 Neighbours: predicted energy use No interaction : [-19%, +5%] Median neighbor : [-4%, +8%] All inhabited : up to -21%

33 Neighbours: predicted energy use No interaction : [-19%, +5%] Median neighbor : [-4%, +8%] All inhabited : up to -21% Not mirrored : [-2%, +6%]

34 Neighbours: predicted energy use -2 C = you normally save approx. 20% inner flat -2 C = you save approx % = your neighbours spend 10-20% more [source: Nielsen & Rose 2014] EPB 2018: K-peil => S-peil, one of the changes: also heat losses through common walls/floors

35 BIM: specific house

36 BIM: parametric typology

37 typologies, multi-zone case, single-zone selection fitting multi-zone

38 typologies, multi-zone Set of appartments/appartment block multiple selections multiple fittings multi-zone

39 DATA post-hoc MODEL predict DESIGN impact

40 DESIGN (FOR) THE USE(R)

41 No one-size-fits-all solution for buildings & users Make choosing possible Choose for the user (cleverly & overridable) Make the user choose (cleverly)

42 Principle: Engage & reward feedback: possible? 1. Make consumption visible (kwh,, colours, charts,...) 2. Give motivation (, comfort,...) 3. Give solutions (options & advice ; technical & behavioural) 4. Make change visible (comparison) => gradual optimisation => evaluation, interaction and guidance

43 Principle: Engage & reward feedback: possible? 1. Make consumption visible (kwh,, colours, charts,...) 2. Give motivation (, comfort,...) 3. Give solutions (options & advice ; technical & behavioural) 4. Make change visible (comparison) => gradual optimisation => evaluation, interaction and guidance

44 Consider the prediction shortfall, but don t overestimate the rebound effect Different models for different purposes regulatory performance assessment (official) vs. accurate prediction (advice, costs ) default values & zoning simultaneous integration possible in pragmatic tools user (profiles) ~ building (characteristics)

45 Design Even if you do not change behaviour, you define the playing field: envelope, systems and controls (e.g. zoning) consider the interactions make better use not only possible, but also natural Modelling Calculation method + input know the assumptions understand the consequences acknowledge the uncertainties Delivery & use Explain: assumptions, use Give effective and useful feedback

46 Werkelijke energievraag en impact gebruikersgedrag Marc Delghust Research Group: Building Physics, Construction & Services T marc.delghust@ugent.be

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