Scenarios for future energy systems

Transcription

1 ME 217: Energy, Environment & Society Fall 2017 Scenarios for future energy systems ME217 Energy, Environment & Society

2 Drivers for change The easy fossil fuels have or are about to peak. Unconventional oil & gas, while booming presently, are more expensive to extract and may present significant environmental hazards, and remain finite. GHG emissions deriving from combustion of fossil fuels have the potential to disrupt the world's climate, possibly severely, with consequences which are difficult to foresee. World population in increasing, as is per capita energy consumption. ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 2/33

3 Requirements of a future system Clean Unlimited Renewable Versatile Economical ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 3/33

4 Renewable resource potential ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 4/33

5 China vs. US population density ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 5/31

6 world population density ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 6/33

7 world per capita energy consumption ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 7/33

8 Where can we go from here? Electricity should play a bigger role than its already considerable one. Fossil fuels are not going away. However, carbon sequestration technologies should become the norm for every stationary combustion plant. Negawatts, not Megawatts. Nuclear power will continue to be part of the mix, with appropriate safeguards and new technology. Renewables will ramp up to become one of the major sources of energy ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 8/33

9 Ingredients of the energy future J H Williams et al. Science 2012;335:53-59 ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 9/33

10 more specifics J H Williams et al. Science 2012;335:53-59 ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 10/33

11 the three major transformations J H Williams et al. Science 2012;335:53-59 ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 11/33

12 possible infrastructure scenarios J H Williams et al. Science 2012;335:53-59 ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 12/33

13 what will it cost? J H Williams et al. Science 2012;335:53-59 ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 13/33

14 Overall individual energy consumption goes down Electricity consumption goes up Biofuels only where they make sense or are strictly necessary Wood pellets Aviation fuel A UK perspective ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 14/33

15 How to produce lots of electricity? Solar PV Solar thermal where possible (e.g. deserts) with longdistance transmission Nuclear power Wind, including offshore Incineration of municipal waste Clean fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration Biomass also with CCS (net removal of CO 2 from atmosphere!) ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 15/33

16 UK Plan D: domestic diversity Coal & nuclear play a major role (including re-opening UK coal mines) Wind power increased 30-fold (requiring substantial installation capacity of offshore & storage) PV panels virtually on every south-facing rooftop Incineration of municipal waste Clean fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 16/33

17 UK Plan N: NIMBY Moderate expansion of nuclear Wind plays relatively minor role Greatly expanded role of clean coal Lots of solar, but in someone else's roof (or desert, more precisely) Incineration of municipal waste Almost 3/4 of electricity imported under this scenario ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 17/33

18 No role for nuclear UK Plan L: no nukes All possible local renewables exploited Incineration of municipal waste Lots of solar imported from sunny countries About 2/3 of electricity imported under this scenario ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 18/33

19 UK Plan G: green Wind energy greatly expanded, becomes single largest resource Major infrastructure upgrades, including expansion of pumped storage As much as possible wave & tide Some solar imported from sunny countries About 14% of electricity imported under this scenario ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 19/33

20 UK Plan E: market/tax driven A strong carbon tax coupled with liberalized energy market Nuclear marginally more economical than coal or imported solar Wind plays a significant but minor role No net energy imports (except for Uranium) ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 20/33

21 The options side by side ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 21/33

22 Can this really be done? ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 22/33

23 How much would it cost? For the UK, between 300B and 900B, translating to 5000 to 15,000 per person For the US, things would be a little cheaper (per capita, of course) Wow, that still seems like a lot!!! But - it does not have to be all done in one year, more likely over a decade to 50 years, meaning anywhere between $2,000 to $400 per year ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 23/33

24 Yearly energy expenditures let's put things in perspective Decommissioning old nuclear plants Replacing defense systems Cosmetics Airports Highways ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 24/33

25 and things that cost real money ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 25/33

26 Some reasons for current inaction The cost of GHG emissions is not internalized David MacKay's (FRS) proposed solutions: Government rule that all coal-fired power plants must implement carbon capture CO 2 emissions must have a cost something on the order of $100/ton to have a measurable effect Indications that markets alone won't deal with the issues: booms and busts, credit crunches, and collapses of banks Would cars have airbags and catalytic converters if they were not forced to (at least initially)? ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 26/33

27 The tragedy of the commons or why every attempt at international cooperation on GHG emissions curtailment ultimately failed Therein is the tragedy. Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his input without limit in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons (Hardin, Science 1968, p. 1244). ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 27/33

28 New York Times Nov. 24, 2014 Cost of wind: $0.014 / kwh ($0.037 without subsidies) Cost of solar: $0.056 / kwh ($0.072 without subsidies) ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 28/33

29 what about jobs? Siemens SWT MW on-shore turbine 130 m diameter rotor >100 m height variable speed, variable pitch connection to grid via power electronics example of hi-tech new energy industry ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 29/33

30 The role of the energy professional Professional activity Research & development Prospecting for resources Streamlining the manufacturing & installation process Outreach Fight energy ignorance Lead by example Nurture relationships with the trades Become involved in local government Support young people's interest in the energy field ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 30/33

31 The role of the citizen Do what is possible and within one's reach Think about future generations Stop saying NO! to everything ME217 Energy, Environment & Society Future scenarios 31/33