Hydrogen in An Energy System Context

Transcription

1 Hydrogen in An Energy System Context Supply & Demand Side Technology Competition John Clarke and Jae Edmonds Nuclear Hydrogen Workshop General Atomic, May 14-15, 22 National Laboratory

2 Some Fundamental Realities: Fossil fuels are the backbone of the present global energy system, and the economics favor their continued use. The stock of fossil carbon is large relative to the carbon content in the atmosphere and CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing. The world has agreed on... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (1992 UNFCC, Article 2) Stabilization requires that fossil emissions peak & then decline... and ultimately approach zero. A zero emission energy system would require developing energy revolutionary technology. Preventing dangerous interference implies during this century. National Laboratory 2

3 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios Final Energy Demands Energy System Carbon Emissions Exajoules per Year A1 Aim A1FI MiniCAM A1T Message A2ASF B1 Image B2 Message Gt C A1 Aim A1FI MiniCAM A1T Message A2ASF B1 Image B2 Message National Laboratory 3

4 How Can We Tell Which Technologies To Develop? MiniCam IA Model Energy-Agriculture-Economy Market Equilibrium 14 Global Regions 15-year time steps Multiple Greenhouse Gases Internally Generated Demographics Land Resource Constraints 69 Energy Supply/Demand Technology Options National Laboratory 4

5 Economic Analysis Of Technology Development/Deployment Regional Fertility & Survival Rates Regional Labor Force Regional Labor Productivity The MiniCAM Integrated Assessment Model* (One of 14 to 17 Regions) * Supported by DOE/SC, DOE/FE, DOE/EE, EPA, NASA, USDA, EPRI, BRT, & Private Industry Regional GDP Regional Energy Demand Technologies Regional Resource Constraints Regional Energy Supply Technologies Regional Energy Demand Regional Prices Regional Energy Supply World Prices and Quantities GHG Emissions National Laboratory 5

6 MiniCAM Energy Markets (Supply Side) Oil Production Liquids Refining Liquids Market Ag/Land Use Model Biomass Production Coal Production Synfuel Conversion Synfuel Conversion Solids Solids Market N. Gas Production Gas Processing Natural Gas Market Nuclear/Fusion Wind Solar Hydro Hydrogen Production Electric Power Generation Hydrogen Market Electricity Market National Laboratory 6

7 MiniCAM Energy Markets (Demand Side) Liquids Market Solids Market Natural Gas Market Hydrogen Market Electricity Market Residential Sector Commercial Sector Industrial Sector Transport Sector Residential Technologies Commercial Technologies Industrial Technologies Transport Technologies National Laboratory 7

8 MiniCAM Energy Markets (Transportation) Automobile Passenger Transport Bus Rail Air Gasoline Diesel Kerosene Transport Technologies Other Liquids Natural Gas Freight Transport Truck Rail Air Water H 2 Solids Electricity Pipeline National Laboratory 8

9 Future Energy Technology Competition: The Four Basic Supply Contenders Fossil oil, gas, coal H/C fuels, Electricity, Hydrogen W&WO carbon capture Intermittent Non-Fossil solar, wind, hydro Electricity, Hydrogen Engineered Non-Fossil fission, fusion, SSP Electricity, Hydrogen Carbon-neutral biomass Electricity, Hydrogen, H/C Fuels Energy/Land Competition National Laboratory 9

10 Hydrogen System Cost Factors: Inputs Process Prepare Distribute $ CH 2 Thermal Liquefy Truck CH.7 CH 4 Thermo- Chemical Compress Pipe CH OH H 2 O Electrolysis Store Wire e- National Laboratory 1

11 SRES B2 Modest Growth Scenario 8 7 exajoules per year 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Global Primary Energy: SWStor Wind Solar Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil National Laboratory 11 exajoules per year With Current Nuclear Technology

12 B2 Base Nuclear Technology Competition exajoules per year End Use Energy: Electricity Production Intermittent Storage H2Fcell Wind Hydro Solar Nuclear Biomass Coal Gas Oil National Laboratory 12

13 ENF Energy Technology Change Model*: Reference ENF Technology T1 Advanced Technology (.9%/yr to 25) T2 Goal Technology (.9%/yr to 295) 199 cents per kilowatt hour T1 goal technology T1 advanced technology B2 Reference *Ref: Edmonds et al, NERAC Presentation 4/15/2 National Laboratory 13

14 ENF Technology/Fission Policy Interaction exajoules per year B2 Ref Technology Wind H2Fcell Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil exajoules per year B2 Nuclear Moratorium Wind H2Fcell Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil exajoules per year B2 Technology T1 45 B2 Technology T2 Wind 4 4 H2Fcell Biomass 3 Hydro 3 25 Solar 25 2 Nuclear 2 15 Coal 15 1 Gas 1 5 Oil National Laboratory 14 exajoules per year Wind H2Fcell Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

15 ENF Technology/Climate Policy exajoules per year exajoules per year B2 T1 No Policy B2 T1 75 ppmv Wind H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Wind H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil exajoules per year exajoules per year Wind H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Wind B2 T1 55 ppmv Fusion H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 5 B2 T1 65 ppmv National Laboratory 15

16 B2 Hydrogen Production: Goal ENF Technology Intermittent Storage Global (EJ/Year) No Stabilization Year Global (EJ/Year) 55ppm Year H2 Electricity Trans H2 Ind H2 Bldg H2 End Use Technologies National Laboratory 16

17 H 2 Supply Technology: Fossil/Biomass Dominate the H 2 Market (Distributed H2 Production With Market Cost Electricity) Share of Hydrogen Market 1% 9% Solar/Wind Electrolysis 8% Nuclear Electrolysis 7% Biomass SMR 6% COAL CO2 Cap 5% GAS CO2 Cap 4% OIL CO2 Cap 3% Coal 2% Conv Gas 1% Conv Oil % Year National Laboratory 17

18 Competition: Reforming Technology Advanced SMR Technology Without Capture and Sequestration Competes Throughout Much of the Century $12. 55ppm Adv. SMR Technology $12. 55ppm Adv. SMR Technology With Capture and Sequestration Hydrogen Cost ($/GJ) $1. $8. $6. $4. $2. Hydrogen Cost ($/GJ) $1. $8. $6. $4. $2. Disposal C Tax Fuel O&M Capital $. $ Year Year National Laboratory 18

19 Regional Effects: Storage and Distribution Cost Can Be Significant Cost ($/GJ) Cost Estimates of H 2 & CO 2 Pipeline Transmission Range of Estimates Oney (3 km) Amos (3 km) Ogden (3 km) Ogden Scaled (169 km) Ogden CO2 (25 km) # Large H2 Plants Number of Large H2 Plants H2 Production (Million GJ/Day) National Laboratory 19

20 Alternate H 2 Market Structures: Electrolysis Could be Distributed K$ Input Process Prepare Distribute Central Distributed E$ Compression Compression Pipe Electrolysis Electrolysis H2O e- National Laboratory 2

21 Regional Electrolysis Technology Competition: Regionally Distributed Adv. Nuclear Technology: Distributed Electrolysis Could Compete with Central SMR H2 Production Intermittent Electrolysis Is Probably Uncompetitive Throughout the Century $25. 55ppm Electrolysis Technology (Fuel = Electricity at Mkt. Cost ) $25 55ppm Electrolysis Technology (Fuel = Opportunistic Renewable Electricity ) Hydrogen Cost ($/GJ) $2. $15. $1. $5. Hydrogen Cost ($/GJ) $2 $15 $1 $5 Disposal C Tax Fuel O&M Capital $ Year $ Year National Laboratory 21

22 Region Specific Costs: Fuel, Markets, CO2 and Other Waste Disposal CO2 Waste Mkt. Fuel Waste Mkt. CO2 Fuel National Laboratory 22

23 Some Final Thoughts It s a competitive world. R&D success, alternative technologies, cost, performance and regional market niche matter big time. Electricity Technology Target Cost ~3-4 C/kWhr Adv. Nuclear? Hydrogen Technology Target Cost ~8-12 $/GJ Nuclear Thermo-Chemical? Regional Cost Factors Are Very Important The greenhouse problem does not necessarily mean that nuclear power will be reborn in USA... or that sequestration will be accepted... specific technology attributes do matter... and an R&D portfolio approach is warranted. If cost and performance are right, ENF Electric/Hydrogen technology could be a major component of the global energy system... with or without climate change... especially outside the USA and after 25. National Laboratory 23

24 Backup Slides National Laboratory 24

25 SUMMARY The B2 World* Population 9.4 billion people in 21. Income per capita disparities shrink between regions, but don t close average GDP/capita growth = 1.85%/yr. Gross World Product increases by an order of magnitude $23T/yr $2T/yr. Technologies improve dramatically. *Ref: SRES B2/emf 19 Version National Laboratory 25

26 ENF Technology/Stabilization Cost $7 $6 75 ppmv $2, $1,8 $1,6 55 ppmv Billions of 199 US $s $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Billions of 199 US $s $1,4 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 Billions of 199 US $s $ $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 Nuclear Moritorium B2 T1 T2 65 ppmv Billions of 199 US $s $ $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, Nuclear Moritorium B2 T1 T2 45 ppmv $ Nuclear Moritorium B2 T1 T2 $ Nuclear Moritorium B2 T1 T2 National Laboratory 26

27 Assumptions About Future Technologies * year 199 year 21 Technology AOG- Enhanced units Base AOG Technology US Automobiles mpg Land-based Solar Electicity 199 c/kwh Nuclear Power 199 c/kwh Biomass Energy 199$/gj $7.7 $6.3 $4. Hydrogen Production (CH 4 feedstock) 199$/gj $6. $6. $4. Fuel Cell mpg (equiv) Fossil Fuel Power Plant Efficiency (Coal/Gas) % 33 42/52 6/7 Capture Efficiency % Carbon Capture Power Penalty (Coal) % Carbon Capture Power Penalty (Gas) % Carbon Capture Capital Cost (Coal) % Carbon Capture Capital Cost (Gas) % Geologic Sequestration (CO 2 ) $/tc * Ref: emf 19 National Laboratory 27

28 Fossil fuels are plentiful... enough to fuel the global economy for hundreds of years. Fossil fuels are the backbone of the present global energy system, and FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES Atmosphere 75 PgC Economics favor continued use of fossil fuels. Vegetation 61 PgC Oil 13 PgC Gas 12 PgC But... fossil carbon is large relative to the carbon stock in the atmosphere Unconventional Liquids and Gases 4, PgC Coal 5, to 8, PgC National Laboratory 28

29 CO2 Concentrations Are Increasing Climate Change Is The Wild Card 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) GOAL stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (Article 2) National Laboratory 29

30 Stabilizing the CO2 Concentration Would Require Revolutionary Technology Cumulative emissions determine the ultimate concentration Emissions Trajectories Consistent With Various Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Ceilings 75 ppmv 65 ppmv 55 ppmv 45 ppmv 35 ppmv IS92a Emissions must peak & then decline... ultimately approaching zero National Laboratory 3

31 MiniCAM Regions 1. US 2. Canada 3. W. Europe 4. Australia & New Zealand 5. Japan 6. Eastern Europe 7. Former Soviet Union 8. China 9. Mid-East 1. Africa 11. Latin America 12. Korea 13. Southeast Asia 14. India 15. Mexico 16. Argentina 17. Brazil National Laboratory 31