Sustainable Energy Systems on a global scale are the answer

Transcription

1 Sustainable Energy Systems on a global scale are the answer - what was the question? Presentation for the Agents Day of Saarschmiede Prof. Dr. Uwe Leprich Institut for Future uueenergy egysyse Systems s( (IZES) Saarbrücken, June 14, 2012

2 2 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ] IZES ggmbh

3 Agenda 1 Challenges and the need for a change 2 3 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios The German path to a sustainable energy system 4 Resume 3 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

4 Current Situation World Oil Production the vast majority of today s crude oil fields are post peak and depleting rapidly at 5.1 per cent per year (CBCNews about a comment of IEA, 2011) Sour rce: LBS [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

5 IEA Projection of World Oil Production Further innova- tions questionable, might be a lot less Development of tar sands, huge environmental impact Includes 350 Gb of political l reserves, which are very uncertain (OPEC Data). The rest of 650 Gb would be depleted d by Sou urce: IEA [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

6 Production, reserves and ressources of non-renewable fuels Source: BGR [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

7 Reserves-to-production ratios Source: BGR [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

8 The Strategic Ellipse Source: BGR [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

9 Price volatilities are dangerous for the economy 12 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

10 Current Situation Greenhouse Effect Concentration of carbon dioxide id and methane on highest level since past years In the last 100 years, the CO 2 -concentration rose faster than anytime in the past years Direct correlation between CO 2 - concentration and temperature Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, loaded on [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

11 The atmosphere is the limitation! Less than one fourth of the proven reserves of fossil fuels can yet be burnt till the year 2050 if the increase in average global temperature should be kept below 2 degrees celcius. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Nature, [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

12 Climate Responsibilities Development of global energy related CO 2 emissions 15 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

13 Climate Responsibilities Revisited Pro-Kopf-CO2-Emissionen Per capita emissions ,4 18,5 16, , ,4 4,9 5,7 7,2 7,0 8,3 9,0 9, ,3 0,9 1,3 1,7 1,9 1,4 0 11,2 11,5 d States Australia Taiwan Canada United Bang ngladesh Africa India Ind ndonesia Brazil Asia Wor orld Total China France Europe Italy Spain United Kingdom Japan Germany Russia 16 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

14 How about nuclear? 30 out of around 200 countries have nuclear power, many of them for military reasons 17 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ] 62 new reactors are under construction o in 13 countries, some of them since decades Source e: IAEA 201 2

15 Agenda 1 Challenges and the need for a change 2 3 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios The German path to a sustainable energy system 4 Resume 19 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

16 Sustainability Three-dimensional model Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Brundtland d Commission i [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

17 Global Scenarios - Overview Clim mate Scenarios IPCC Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Ene arios rgy Scena IEA-World Energy Outlook EIA International Energy Outlook Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 Greenpeace, DLR Energy [R]evolution 21 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

18 IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 Three scenarios (Current Policies Scenario, New Policies Scenario, 450-Scenario) One scenario that aims for a maximum of 2 C temperature rise in the long term. => scenario IEA-World Energy Outlook 4/5 of the energy related CO2-emissions, that are permitted within the 450-scenario until 2035, are already determined by the existing facilities (plants, buildings, factories). Energy efficiency has to develop more than twice as fast than in the past 2 ½ decades (450-scenario). Golden Age for natural gas In scenario-450: coal consumption has its maximum before 2020 and declines afterwards 22 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

19 23 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ] IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

20 EU-Energy Roadmap 2050 EU Energy Targets for 2020: Reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % (compared to 1990) Increase the share of renewables in energy consumption to 20 % Increase in energy efficiency by 20 % Range of different EUscenarios of fuel shares in primary energy consumption Source: EC [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

21 As it comes to the EU, it is wind and gas! 25 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

22 Agenda 1 Challenges and the need for a change 2 3 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios The German path to a sustainable energy system 4 Resume 26 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

23 Development of total primary energy supply in Germany Source: IEA [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

24 Targets of the Energy Concept 2010 Source: Schafhausen 2011 as cornerstones of the German Energiewende 28 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

25 29 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ] Source: BMU 2012

26 Leitstudie 2011 as a compass for the Energiewende Source: DLR/IWES/IfNE [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

27 Leitstudie 2011: Gross Electricity Generation Source: DLR/IWES/IfNE [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

28 Leitstudie 2011: Cost Analysis Source: DLR/IWES/IfNE [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

29 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

30 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

31 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

32 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

33 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

34 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

35 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

36 The renewable revolution in Germany Source: BMU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

37 Success story wind turbines Source: BWE 2009/11 41 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

38 Learning curve wind turbines Source: Renews Juli [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

39 Development of costs and feed-in tariffs for PV Costs and remunerations for PV have been cut by more than 50% within 4 years! 43 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

40 Expected learning curves for renewables Source: WBGU [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

41 The heart of the Energiewende: the future electricity system 45 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

42 The way forward: system transformation From the good old baseload world to the residual load world! 46 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

43 Agenda 1 Challenges and the need for a change 2 3 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios The German path to a sustainable energy system 4 Resume 47 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

44 Resume Fossil fuels are very likely to be affected by a trend of rising but volatile prices because of decreasing reserves ( peak oil ) Nuclear power will not play a mayor role in the future; some countries will still use it mainly for military reasons Sustainable energy systems will not rely on fossil fuels and nuclear power, but on efficiency and renewable energies In the long term, renewable energies are the cheapest and the safest energy source If the renewable energies are intermittent, the whole electricity system has to be transformed Germany tries to show that this will be possible in technical and economic terms 48 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]

45 Thank you very much for your attention! Institut für ZukunftsEnergieSysteme (IZES) Altenkesselerstr. 17, Gebäude A Saarbrücken Tel Fax Homepage 49 [ Leprich, June 14, 2012, Saarbrücken ]