Climate Change and Its Impacts on PNW Estuaries

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Its Impacts on PNW Estuaries Henry Lee Many U.S. Issues EPA Western Ecology Division Pacific Many Coastal Partners Ecology Branch Newport, Oregon Acknowledgements: Walt Nelson, Cheryl Brown, & Chris Janousek for assistance with slides

2 Multi-agency Climate Research Predicting climate change threats to key estuarine habitats and ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest Participants USGS: Debbie Reusser, Rebecca Loiselle, Meredith Payne, two students (SLAMM, SST, Arctic fish, species at risk) EPA: Henry Lee, Cheryl Brown, Chris Janousek, Pat Clinton, Melanie Frazier, Dave Young, new post-doc (SLR model, water quality, marshes, SAV, species at risk) Forest Service: Rebecca Flitcroft (SLAMM & salmon) USF&W: Roy Lowe (marshes & restoration) USDA: Brett Dumbauld & Lee McCoy (oysters & SAV) The Nature Conservancy: Dick Vander Schaaf (native oysters) NERR/OSU: Steve Rumrill (native oysters, marshes, SAV) OSU/OCCRI: Phil Mote (downscaled climate predictions)

3 Past and Ongoing Climate Related Research by EPA National Coastal Assessment Surveys (EMAP): (Walt Nelson) Classification of PNW Estuaries (Henry Lee & Cheryl Brown) Impacts of SLR and Precipitation on Estuarine Water Quality (Cheryl Brown) Development of a SLR Model for SAV the Yaquina Estuary (Henry Lee, Pat Clinton, Cheryl Brown) Mapping Emergent Marsh Assemblages & Impacts of SLR on Marshes (Chris Janousek) Near-Coastal Species at Risk (Henry Lee) Patterns of SST in North Pacific (M. Payne, D. Reusser, H. Lee, & C. Brown) pages/publications/ authored.htm

4 Past and Ongoing Climate Related Research by EPA National Coastal Assessment Surveys (EMAP): (Walt Nelson) Classification of PNW Estuaries (Henry Lee & Cheryl Brown) Impacts of SLR and Precipitation on Estuarine Water Quality (Cheryl Brown) Development of a SLR Model for SAV the Yaquina Estuary (Henry Lee, Pat Clinton, Cheryl Brown) Mapping Emergent Marsh Assemblages & Impacts of SLR on Marshes (Chris Janousek) Near-Coastal Species at Risk (Henry Lee) Patterns of SST in North Pacific (M. Payne, D. Reusser, H. Lee, & C. Brown) pages/publications/ authored.htm

5 Past and Ongoing Climate Related Research by EPA National Coastal Assessment Surveys (EMAP): (Walt Nelson) Classification of PNW Estuaries (Henry Lee & Cheryl Brown) Impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) & Precipitation on Estuarine Water Quality (Cheryl Brown) Development of a SLR Model for SAV in the Yaquina Estuary (Henry Lee, Pat Clinton, Cheryl Brown) Mapping Emergent Marsh Assemblages & Impacts of SLR on Marshes (Chris Janousek) Near-Coastal Species at Risk (Henry Lee) Patterns of SST in North Pacific (M. Payne, D. Reusser, H. Lee, & C. Brown) pages/publications/ authored.htm

6 Past and Ongoing Climate Related Research by EPA National Coastal Assessment Surveys (EMAP): (Walt Nelson) Classification of PNW Estuaries (Henry Lee & Cheryl Brown) Impacts of SLR and Precipitation on Estuarine Water Quality (Cheryl Brown) Development of a SLR Model for SAV in the Yaquina Estuary (Henry Lee, Pat Clinton, Cheryl Brown) Mapping Emergent Marsh Assemblages & Impacts of SLR on Marshes (Chris Janousek) Near-Coastal Species at Risk (Henry Lee) Patterns of SST in North Pacific (M. Payne, D. Reusser, H. Lee, & C. Brown) pages/publications/ authored.htm

7 Past and Ongoing Climate Related Research by EPA National Coastal Assessment Surveys (EMAP): (Walt Nelson) Classification of PNW Estuaries (Henry Lee & Cheryl Brown) Impacts of SLR and Precipitation on Estuarine Water Quality (Cheryl Brown) Development of a SLR Model for SAV in the Yaquina Estuary (Henry Lee, Pat Clinton, Cheryl Brown) Mapping Emergent Marsh Assemblages & Impacts of SLR on Marshes (Chris Janousek) Near-Coastal Species at Risk (Henry Lee) Patterns of SST in North Pacific (M. Payne, D. Reusser, H. Lee, & C. Brown)

8 Past and Ongoing Climate Related Research by EPA National Coastal Assessment Surveys (EMAP): (Walt Nelson) Classification of PNW Estuaries (Henry Lee & Cheryl Brown) Impacts of SLR and Precipitation on Estuarine Water Quality (Cheryl Brown) Development of a SLR Model for SAV in the Yaquina Estuary (Henry Lee, Pat Clinton, Cheryl Brown) Mapping Emergent Marsh Assemblages & Impacts of SLR on Marshes (Chris Janousek) SIXTH WAVE OF EXTINCTION Near-Coastal Species at Risk (Henry Lee) Patterns of SST in North Pacific (M. Payne, D. Reusser, H. Lee, & C. Brown)

9 Past and Ongoing Climate Related Research by EPA National Coastal Assessment Surveys (EMAP): (Walt Nelson) Classification of PNW Estuaries (Henry Lee & Cheryl Brown) Impacts of SLR and Precipitation on Estuarine Water Quality (Cheryl Brown) Development of a SLR Model for SAV in the Yaquina Estuary (Henry Lee, Pat Clinton, Cheryl Brown) Mapping Emergent Marsh Assemblages & Impacts of SLR on Marshes (Chris Janousek) Near-Coastal Species at Risk (Henry Lee) Patterns of near-coastal SST in North Pacific (M. Payne, D. Reusser, H. Lee, & C. Brown)

10 Inventory of 62 Oregon Estuaries as Defined by the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) and Their Watersheds by the National Land-Cover Database (NLCD)

11 Characteristics of PNW Estuaries Affecting Their Vulnerability to Climate Change & Types of Ecosystem Services Impacted Most of the 103 PNW estuaries are small. Most PNW estuaries have relatively large intertidal areas and relatively small areas of emergent marshes.

12 Tillamook Estuary Oregon Ocean vs. River Influence = Area Normalized Flow = 40 Number of estuaries Rogue River Estuary Oregon Netarts Estuary Oregon 0 Ocean Dominated Volume rainfall on watershed (m 3 ) Ln ( ) Estuary area (km 2 ) River Dominated

13 Seasonal and Spatial Salinity Patterns in PNW Estuaries Plots show the median salinity with distance along each estuary with the 25 th and 75 th percentiles. Netarts lagoonal nature is illustrated by the minimal variation in salinity both in space and with seasons. Difference between marine- vs. riverinedominated estuaries is illustrated by the large difference in how far salt is transported into Yaquina compared to the Coquille. Use hydrodynamic models to project how spatial and seasonal salinity patterns will change by estuary type in response to SLR and changes in precipitation.

14 During the Growing Season, the Lower Portions of PNW Estuaries are Dominated by Advected Ocean Nutrients While Only the Upper Portions are Dominated by Nutrients Associated with River Flow Yaquina Estuary Most of the native Zostera marina occurs in the Ocean Dominated segment Emergent marshes show same pattern? Demarcation Ocean v. River Dominance

15 Target Estuaries For New Climate Research *Coquille: Highly river-dominated (VNFI = 143) *Yaquina: Tide-dominated (VNFI = 42) Coos: Tide-dominated (VNFI = 14) Willapa: Tide-dominated (VNFI = 6) Netarts: Bar built (VNFI = 8) * = High priority estuaries for hydrodynamic modeling VNFI = Volume normalized freshwater inflow = Annual volume of precipitation falling on watershed divided by volume of estuary (Lee and Brown, 2009).

16 High Priority Impact: Sea level rise and coastal habitats Both models and measurements indicate that sea level is rising. Both natural and constructed features in the coastal zone of the Pacific Northwest will be affected.

17 Sea level rise and coastal habitats (=27 cm per century)

18 Sea level rise and coastal habitats Marsh may migrate landward unless constrained by topography or development. Community shifts may occur (for example shifting from high to low marsh). Loss of deeper SAV may be compensated by expansion onto the inundated flats. Rise in sea level will change the spatial & temporal salinity regime. High Marsh Road Low Marsh Low Marsh Tide Flat Zostera marina

19 Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) A Generalized Model to Predict Effects of Sea Level Rise on Wetlands SLAMM utilizes existing NWI classifications as the basis of its predictions of SLR effects on wetlands. Depending upon the habitat, NWI classes may be aggregated into coarser resolution habitats. SLAMM has a salinity module for salt-wedge estuaries that is not appropriate for most PNW estuaries. SLAMM does not predict effects on submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). SLAMM is open source so it can be modified. More on the SLAMM modeling effort by Rebecca Loiselle on Tuesday

20 For Willapa, Columbia, & Tillamook: Losses for 0.69 m rise by 2100 include: -25% of tidal fresh marsh -31% of tidal swamp -32% of brackish marsh -63% of tidal flats Sea level rise and coastal habitats Predictions from SLAMM

21 Generation of SLR Projections for PNW Estuaries and Prediction of Effects on SAV, Marshes, & Oysters NRC Local tectonic & ATM. values in OR & N. CA SLR projections in target estuaries SLAMM Model Loss of tidal marshes by NWI class SLR Projections for Central WA Coast BATHTUB Model Loss of seagrass, oyster beds, & tidal marsh Compare preditions & management utility Incorporate better regional estimates for default parameters (e.g., sediment accumulation). Develop more realistic salinity models for PNW estuaries. Modify SLAMM to incorporate higher resolution emergent marsh assemblage distributions. Develop SLR model for SAV and other intertidal habitats. Generate add-on modules for SLAMM (EPA/USGS)?

22 Bathymetry in Yaquina, Tillamook, & Alsea Predicting Change in Area of Zostera marina Bathtub Assumptions (estuary configuration fixed) Depth Distribution of Z. marina in Yaquina Percent Change 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Seagrass Percent Change with Different Levels of Sea Level Rise Assuming Fixed Estuary Area ("Bathtub" Assumptions) Tillamook Yaquina Alsea 0 m m m m m Sea level Rise Under these assumptions, area of SAV increases with small to moderate levels of SLR.

23 Great Minds Don t Always Think Alike Next Steps in Developing SLR Model for SAV Don t forget Debbie s b Dinner Geographically Weighted Regression Tool Marine Geospatial Ecology Tools - ArcRStats Rule set based on inequalities Niche models CART, MARS, Logistic Regression

24 Next Steps in Developing a Generalized SLR Model for SAV Intertidal vs. Subtial Area - Tide Dominated Predict Changes in Estuarine Geomorphology Intertidal Area y = x R 2 = Consistent geomorphology by estuary class? Subtidal Area Sediment accumulation rates Shoreline modification ( squeeze ) Develop Niche Models for SAV GIS-based vs. regression based Incorporate changes in salinity Incorporate estuary classes

25 Can We Generate Higher Resolution and/or More Accurate Predictions of the Effects on Emergent Marshes Then the Current Version of SLAMM? Map specific emergent marsh assemblages in the Yaquina Estuary and incorporate into SLAMM or other model. Develop realistic salinity models for classes of PNW estuaries incorporating both advection of ocean water and changes in river flow. Quantify/model the actual tidal and seasonal salinity patterns for emergent marshes. Using marsh data from Yaquina and other estuaries, develop niche models that convert existing NWI classes into specific wetland assemblages in PNW estuaries.

26 Salinity Patterns in the Channel May Not be Representative of Marsh Exposure Criteser's Marsh Salinity Channel Salinity 30 Water 3.5 Level 25 Elevation 3 When Marsh Inundated 2.5 Salinity, psu Marsh only inundated on the highest high tides Water Level, m (MLLW /7/2009 5/12/2009 5/17/2009 5/22/2009 5/27/2009 6/1/

27 Deploying a Suite of Salinity Arrays in Yaquina, Coquille, and Netarts to Measure Actual Exposure in a Suite of Marsh Assemblages m (MLLW) m m m

28 CONCLUSIONS/DIRECTIONS Integrating several approaches field work, data mining, hydrologic modeling, niche modeling, climate modeling, etc. Requires a number of different skills and partners. Expect different levels and types of impacts in different types of estuary classes. Predicting effects across a suite of PNW estuaries requires a balance between generality versus sitespecific details.

29 QUESTIONS?

30 Generation of Climate Projections for PNW and Coupling with Habitat and Niche Models Integration of downscaled climate and SLR projections with hydrodynamic models to project changes in habitat type and environmental conditions. Input projected changes into niche and habitat suitability models for SAV, marshes, oysters, salmon habitat, and burrowing shrimp

31 Niche Modeling to Evaluate Effects of Climate Change on Key Estuarine Species

32 Sea water, stream, air temperature increases A1B scenario

33 Sea level rise and coastal habitats Sea level rise varies along the Oregon coast Source: Komar & Allen (2000)

34 Sea level rise and coastal habitats More recent study by Burgette et al. (2009) Location Relative Sea Level Rise (mm/y) Crescent City Port Orford Charleston 0.29 South Beach 1.22 Garibaldi 0.88 Astoria 0.04

35 Global Climate Change and the PNW Human activities Increased air & stream temperatures Changes in river inflow Increase storm frequency Increased greenhouse Gas concentrations Intensified atmospheric Pressure gradients Intensified Upwelling? Modified from Harley et al. (2006) Increased UV Increased CO 2 Decreased ph Sea level rise Increased water temperature Potential Effects on Coastal Systems Sea level rise/ coastal flooding Wave heights increase Temperature increase in ocean, streams & air Hydrological cycle modifications Change in coastal upwelling Ocean acidification Ocean dead zones?? Biological community changes Range shifts Primary productivity shifts Spread of non-indigenous Species

36 Coastal Upwelling: Influence on Water Quality In Estuaries Influences N, P, chlorophyll a, ph and dissolved oxygen levels in PNW estuaries. Results in high background nutrient loading. May obscure anthropogenic signatures.

37 Comparison among estuaries in the distribution of the non-native Japanese eelgrass, Zostera japonica among salinity zones among Oregon estuaries.

38 Most of the seagrass occurs within a narrow depth range (-1 to +1 m). As with a lawn, seagrass needs light to thrive. Limited light penetration in the water column typically limits the depth to which seagrasses can grow. Seagrass distributions would be sensitive to small changes in water depth resulting from sea level rise. Distribution of eelgrass Zostera marina with depth in Tillamook Estuary

39 Ocean Acidification What effects will this have on the estuary? Research is only starting on this issue, and much is unknown. The range of ph over latitude and depth in the Pacific spans ~ The span of ph in Tillamook Bay during EMAP sampling was The range of current natural variability in estuaries is much higher than for the open ocean. ph scale Source: Kleypas et al., 2006.

40 Ocean Acidification ph of Sea Water Entering PNW Estuaries is Directly Influenced by Upwelling ph ph Wind Stress Integrated Wind Stress, m 2 s -1 5/1/2004 6/1/2004 7/1/2004 8/1/2004 9/1/ /1/2004 Date Source: WED, USEPA