Air Managers Committee

Transcription

1 Air Managers Committee Mission: To Bring Air Managers perspective to WRAP processes To provide a place for managers to discuss and resolve air program management issues related to regional haze To provide guidance as appropriate to ensure that regional haze planning needs of state and tribal air managers are addressed by WRAP

2 Air Managers Committee Projects for Staff support-state and Tribal Caucus, Alaska Tribal Village Coordinators Supplemental Environmental Benefits (e.g., health) Traditional Tribal Lifeways SIP/TIP Templates Workshops to facilitate State/Tribal Relationships

3 Air Managers Committee Implementation Work Group 308 Template for SIPs and TIPs Outline(s) or Roadmaps for states and tribes EPA Review Protocol Feedback to WRAP forums Attribution of Haze Report Stationary Source Technical Reports Annual workplans

4 Air Managers Committee AMC Issues for : Project implementation Additional environmental benefits (e.g. health) Tribal/State issue resolution Continuing Review and Feedback SIP/TIP Template Increase Tribal Participation Direction on Approach to Stationary Sources and Regional Haze

5 309 Coordinating Committee Completed first (2003) SO2 emissions and milestone report Emissions were 25% below milestone Fix 309 per CEED vs EPA Implement 309 Future milestone reports Tracking of emissions, clean air corridor growth, and pollution prevention progress

6 Communications Committee Continue working on children s handout, WRAP Sheet, and website 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Monthly WRAP Website Visits (Jan Apr 2005)

7 Stationary Sources Forum Identifying BART-eligible sources Reviewing 2002 emission inventory Enhancing inventories on tribal lands Developing 2018 emission projections Evaluation O&G emissions and controls Evaluating cost and capabilities of combustion controls for reducing NOx from EGUs

8 Stationary Sources Forum Working with EPA and stakeholders to address various issues (BART, trading program elements, PSD, etc.) Future work Continue focus on market-based alternatives to BART for SO2 and NOx Work with 309 Committee on any analyses necessary for resubmittal of SO2 backstop Develop technical demonstrations that marketbased programs are better than BART

9 Stationary Sources Forum Future work (continuted) Maintain list of BART-eligible sources If practical/requested, coordinate implementation of BART Address sources and/or pollutants not included in any alternative to BART Complete the NOx & PM portion of 309 SIPs

10 Dust Forum Sponsored dust control conference Completed Fugitive Dust Handbook How to calculate emissions, costs, and control efficiencies for 8 categories of dust Evaluating a draft definition of natural and anthropogenic dust. Anthropogenic dust: Mechanically-entrained dust from human activities (e.g., tires, tilling, loading) Windblown dust from areas disturbed by humans beyond a natural range

11 Dust Forum Evaluating Fraction of PM 10 That Is PM 2.5 Flow Tunnel Test Chamber Preliminary results indicate that current AP-42 emission factors may be overestimating the fine fraction by a factor of two. Five additional soils to be tested for PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratios.

12 Dust Forum Developing First Regional Windblown Dust Inventory WB Dust Emission Estimates Dust Observed

13 Dust Forum Ambient Data Analysis Guadalupe Mountains, NM/TX Border Visibility Trend Dust Trend

14 Dust Forum Ambient Data Analysis 8 Number of Sites per Day Where Asian Dust Was Dominant 4/26/02 5/11/ January 2002 December 2002

15 Dust Forum Ambient Data Analysis Windblown Dust Model for Salt Creek, NM R2= Observed Predicted

16 Dust Forum Ambient Data Analysis October 16, 2001 October 16, 2001

17 Dust Forum Future work Continue and complete all projects above Integrate projects above for use in a SIP or TIP using 1-2 areas in New Mexico as a pilot

18 Mobile Sources Forum Continue to focus on offroad diesel retrofit Compiled information on Federal funding sources Web resources (health effects, equipment vendors, verification data, S/L programs, etc.) Key dates (meetings and grant due dates) Technical and program updates Drafting program development guidance Providing grant application assistance

19 In and Near Forum Counties with PM10 Nonattainment and Maintenance Areas

20 PM 10 Trends ( ) In and Near Forum

21 Economic Anlaysis Forum Completed test application of framework Working with EPA to accelerate and test an integrated tool for assessing costs and benefits of potential control strategies Designing a tribal economic and demographic database Future work Develop state baseline data Enhance cost/benefit data Provide economic analyis support to members

22 Regional Haze Analysis & Planning: Progress Report for 2004 WRAP Board Meeting Phoenix, AZ May 18, 2005

23 Progress Report on Regional Haze Analysis Presentation Topics: Overview Activities update & plan for Forums/Workgroups, emphasis on technical activities

24 Objectives of Analyses Analyses address key parts of the Regional Haze Rule Natural visibility goal by 2064 Baseline period from Regional Haze Plans to make reasonable progress Progress defined as continuing, steady anthropogenic emissions reductions all source categories to be considered Progress to be measured as reductions in aerosol concentrations of visibility-impairing pollutants at parks and wilderness areas

25 WRAP Technical Work [ ] Technical effort serves as the foundation for WRAP region haze plans First round of technical work done in to support 309 SIPs for Grand Canyon region WRAP Committees and Forums completed comprehensive Technical Support Document that was submitted by all five states with their 309 SIPs Current effort is now focused on analyses to cover each Class I area in regional haze plans due December 2007 Actual 2002 emissions in use to evaluate model performance baseline period representative emissions for planning analysis 2018 base case emissions [end of first planning period] = emissions control programs in permit, rule, and/or statute as of December 2004 Modeling simulations of regional haze control strategies, based on reducing emissions from the 2018 base case

26 Emissions Estimation Issues for Regional Haze Near-term [next 3 years] Point sources - must prepare regional emissions inventory, management strategy, and implement program(s) Mobile sources [on-road/non-road] far-reaching federal rules already adopted, to be implemented next 10 years Prescribed fire keep existing smoke management programs, adding application of emissions reduction techniques, natural wildfire dominates fire emissions Dust assess contribution to visibility and local control options Longer-term [now through 2010] Some emissions sources exhibit a lot of variance in chemistry, space, and time: Fire, dust, ammonia, etc. - need improved, automated routine estimation and tracking techniques and tools Need to understand fire/dust/ammonia emissions fluxes in the context of changing climate for ongoing regional haze planning

27 WRAP Attribution of Haze Project Conceptual Model Reality Attribution Attribution of Haze Project Apportionment Existing 2002 Emissions Inventories Receptor-oriented Modeling & Trajectory Analyses Gridded Dispersion Model Analyses Pure, Idle Speculation

28 AoH Key Inputs to Regional Haze Analysis/Planning Emissions Inventories Tracks pollution estimates of source categories and aerosol species Spatial variation and source strength in EIs affects monitoring data and model results Confidence in these data is medium Monitoring Data Snapshot of aerosol pollution at a given location Confidence in these data is high Modeling Allows us to estimate the transformation and movement and fate of emissions in the atmosphere Model performance is tested by comparisons to monitoring data

29 Attribution of Haze Project Phase 1 Report WRAP attribution results (south of Canada) Extensive input/participation from technical/joint Forums Compiled attributions for 120+ Class I areas Independent apportionment methods generally consistent in identifying source regions AoH weight of evidence method generally applicable to haze attribution Emissions from mobile and point source categories: SO 2 and NO x are regional pollutants, comprising a significant percentage of each state s emissions Both are important contributors to light extinction Modeled emissions from each WRAP region state impact Class I areas of one or more other states and tribes What about Alaska?

30 Alaska Somewhat unique problems Inventory Meteorology Modeling International transport

31 Alaska Technical Projects Representative Community Emissions Inventories First ever inventories for rural native villages Unique set of sources boats, off-road vehicles, others Extrapolated to estimate Alaska rural county emissions Alaska aviation emissions inventory On-road and non-road emissions estimates Alaska point and railroad emissions

32 Alaska Modeling Region Evaluation Great extremes: Elevation range: sea level to +20k Day length Temperature Met models not useful Will use monitoring and emissions data for SIP Alaska modeling region (red box, approximate)

33 Example AoH 2002 SO 2 Emissions Densities

34 Class I areas & haze monitoring sites

35 Example IMPROVE Data Timeline Plot

36 2002 Average Calculated Light Extinction by Species

37 2002 WRAP Region Visibility Impacts Total Light Extinction Sulfate Light Extinction Aerosol Extinction Nitrate Light Extinction Sulfate Extinction Organics Light Extinction Nitrate Extinction Organics Extinction

38 Traced Area: WRAP Modeling Domains WRAP Regional Modeling Center Tagged Species Source Apportionment tool for regional dispersion modeling analysis Uses tracers to track chemical transformations and deposition across domain Contribution results at each receptor site no need for aerosol samplers to be present WRAP Region fine grid (blue, 12 km cells) North American coarse grid (red, 36 km cells) Each state [source region] is distinguished by a unique number in the source area mapping file

39 Back Trajectory Residence Time Summaries 20% worst sulfate days ( ) W, SW, SE show highest residence times at Great Sand Dunes NW, W, S show highest residence times at Craters of the Moon Great Sand Dunes, Colorado Craters of the Moon, Idaho

40 Used for comparison of TSSA and TRA results Boundary states (inner circle) U.S. regions (outer circle) International (Can., Mex.) Other (ocean, gulf, boundary conditions, unknown or not able to attribute) Source Region Grouping - Example

41 AoH - Integrated Analysis and Results Weight of evidence approach: Less confident in any single analysis Multiple, independent analyses are necessary to gain more confidence in findings Integrated analysis looked at: Accuracy and reliability of EIs, monitoring data, model results Geographic source regions for sulfate and nitrate TSSA Point and Mobile emissions TRA Did not distinguish between source categories Logical groupings of CIAs exist based on attribution of these pollutants

42 Class I area Grouping by Sulfate & Nitrate Source Attribution 20 groupings Impacts of point and mobile sources from each state Based on source region attribution and species signal strength and similarity Groupings similar for sulfate and nitrate

43 Summary of AoH Major Data Products

44 Tribal Data Development Workgroup Tribal Emissions Inventory Software Solution (TEISS) 65 WRAP region tribes have TEISS 40+ WRAP region tribal staff trained 18 tribal emissions inventories completed being loaded into EDMS 11 additional tribal inventories to be completed by end of 2005 using TEISS Completing Tribal Causes of Haze Assessment 1) Tribal Class I areas detailed assessment completed 2) Completing assessment of tribal lands represented by existing IMPROVE monitors 3) Proposal identifying additional locations to fill in gaps in regional haze monitoring for tribes Tribal Point Source Project

45 Stationary Source & Emissions Forums Stationary Sources Joint Forum Discussed separately Emissions Forum Completing 2002, 08, 13, & 18 on-road, nonroad, planes, trains, in-port and off-shore shipping emissions inventories Emissions Data Management System (EDMS) Regional data center to develop, store, and display existing, projected, and future emissions inventories Central location for state and tribal emission inventories that will serve as the basis for Regional Haze Plans, including 309 tracking; and Complete regional emissions inventory for WRAP region, to provide modeling files Built by E.H. Pechan, came on-line January project development site, contains documentation

46 EDMS Deliverables Outputs/Data Extracts NIF Version 3.0 SMOKE Maps of emissions sources Database Administrator Functions User Management/Security LISTSERV Ad-Hoc Functions QA/QC Report Development Analysis

47 EDMS GIS Interface Feature Layers Map

48 Mexico National Emissions Inventory Project Need identified in GCVTC Collaborative project managed by WGA, EPA, CEC, SEMARNAT, & INE Training & tools phase Mexico NEI development Point, area, on-road, non-road, road dust, biogenics, some fire data Inventory for 6 northern states complete June 1 To be displayed and accessible through EDMS Modeling input files available to all users Inventory for remainder of Mexico next months using same methodologies and tools

49 Off-Shore Shipping Emissions Inventory Source Data

50 Off-Shore Shipping Emissions

51 Dust & Fire Forums Technical Projects Dust Emissions Joint Forum Discussed separately Fire Emissions Joint Forum Actual 2002 Fire emissions inventories complete Starting fire planning inventories complete early Fall baseline period average/representative emissions 2018 planning emissions projected in time/space based on High, medium, low scenarios for controllable emissions Wildfire constant

52 Annual Average Visibility Impact of All 2002 Fire Emissions

53 Visibility Impact of 2002 Anthropogenic Fire Emissions Annual Average

54 Visibility Impact of 2002 Natural Fire Emissions Annual Average