The Fossil Greenhouse Earth Analogue. Dr. Appy Sluijs

Transcription

1 The Fossil Greenhouse Earth Analogue Dr. Appy Sluijs Palaeoecology; Institute of Environmental Biology Faculty of Science Utrecht University

2 Content - Greenhouse Effect - Carbon Cycle - Short Carbon Cycle - Long Carbon Cyce - Fossil Greenhouse Earth - The Thermal Maximum, 55 Million Years Ago

3 Primary Drives of Global Climate - Sun - Earths reflection of solar energy - Greenhouse gases Together, these factors determine the amount of energy on Earths surface

4 Greenhouse Effect Warms Earths surface no deep freeze (+31ºC) Greenhouse gases: H 2 O, CO 2, CH 4, NO x, O 3, VOCs etc.

5 Greenhouse Effect Venus vs Aarde

6 Data SOI and NOAA

7

8 The amount of energy is rising Solar activity constant

9 Arctic Ocean (27 aug 2007) National Snow and Ice Data Center

10 CO 2 concentration in the last millenium: Hockeystick IPCC, 2001

11 CO 2 concentration through the ice ages Ruddiman, 2001

12 Atmospheric CO 2 concentration; 50 Million Years 280 Pre-industrial Pagani et al., 2005; Science

13 Atmospheric CO 2 concentration; 50 Million Years 1850 ~2300 AD (Archer, 2005) IPCC report 1120 ~ AD 560 ~ AD 382 Present 280 Pre-industrial Pagani et al., 2005; Science

14 Question: Why was CO 2 that high? The Carbon Cycle determines how much carbon (C) is stored where on Earth. - short carbon cycle - long carbon cycle

15 Content - Greenhouse Effect - Carbon Cycle - Short Carbon Cycle - Long Carbon Cyce - Fossil Greenhouse Earth - The Thermal Maximum, 55 Million Years Ago

16 Short Carbon Cycle: Fotosynthesis and Respiration Fotosynthesis: 6CO 2 + 6H 2 O + sunlight C 6 H 12 O 6 + 6O 2 CO CO 2 O CO O 2 O 2 CO 2 CO 2 O 2 C 6 H 12 O 6

17 Short Carbon Cycle: Fotosynthesis and Respiration Respiration: 6CO 2 + 6H 2 O + sunlight C 6 H 12 O 6 + 6O 2 CO CO 2 CO 2 2 CO 2 CO 2

18 Short Carbon Cycle: Fotosynthesis and Respiration

19 Seasonal vegetation cycle Winter Summer

20 Data SOI and NOAA The Yearly CO 2 cycle

21 Short Carbon Cycle: Fotosynthesis and Respiration

22 Long Carbon Cycle: Storage of Carbon; long time scales If in an ecosystem the accumulation rate of carbon-baring material is faster than the breakdown rate: storage in sediments

23 Long Carbon Cycle: Storage of Carbon; long time scales Peat

24 Long Carbon Cycle: Storage of Carbon; long time scales Coal

25 Long Carbon Cycle: Storage of Carbon; long time scales CaCO 3 Ca-carbonate chalk

26 Long Carbon Cycle

27 Long Carbon Cycle: Storage of Carbon; long time scales

28 Long Carbon Cycle: Storage of Carbon; long time scales Fossil Fuels: 5,000 Methane in hydrates: ~5,000

29 Content - Greenhouse Effect - Carbon Cycle - Short Carbon Cycle - Long Carbon Cyce - Fossil Greenhouse Earth - The Thermal Maximum, 55 Million Years Ago

30 Atmospheric CO 2 concentration; 50 Million Years Pagani et al., 2005; Science

31 Taxodiaceae (Metasequoia) Courtesy, Jane Francis

32 Taxodiaceae (Metasequoia) Courtesy, Jane Francis

33

34 Napartulik - Inuk for Place of Trees Geodetic Hills, Axel Heiberg island Courtesy Jane Francis

35 Courtesy Jane Francis All fossil material is mummified - dried and slightly compressed

36 Courtesy Jane Francis Some leaf litter layers are dominated by Dawn Redwood leaves (Metasequoia). These represent lowland swamp forests.

37 Spitsbergen

38

39

40

41

42

43

44 Coal mines Spitsbergen

45 Courtesy Jane Francis

46 POLES ICE-FREE: Sea-level ~100m higher

47 Content - Greenhouse Effect - Carbon Cycle - Short Carbon Cycle - Long Carbon Cyce - Fossil Greenhouse Earth - The Thermal Maximum, 55 Million Years Ago

48 Early Eocene warm. Superimposed: Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) Sluijs, PAGES newsletter 2008

49 To cut a technical story short: the PETM was caused by a vast increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration!

50 To cut a technical story short: the PETM was caused by a vast increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration! - estimate PETM C input: 2-7 x g - anthropogenic C input (all fossil fuels): 5 x g PETM has some analogies to the current situation

51 PETM global warming

52 Sluijs et al. 2006, Nature 23 C

53 Benthic Foraminifer Extinction event

54 Mammal evolution during PETM

55 PETM ~100,000 years Acidification CO CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 2 O 2 CH CH CO O CH million years <1000 years

56 PETM Temperature North Pole Sluijs et al. 2006, Nature

57 PETM temperature : New York Zachos et al. 2006, Geology Sluijs et al. 2007, Nature

58 PETM temperature : New York Sluijs et al., 2007; Nature

59 Climate Models? Model-data mismatch Climate Model for PETM: Pole - equator - pole temperature 1120 ppm CO 2 Mean Annual Surface Temperature (ºC) Model output Huber and Nof 2006, Palaeo Latitude (degrees) -5

60 Climate Models? Model-data mismatch Climate Model Pre/post PETM surface temperature PETM temperature Mean Annual Surface Temperature (ºC) Model output Huber and Nof 2006, Palaeo Latitude (degrees) -5

61 Climate Chain Reaction Sluijs et al. 2007; Nature

62 Carbon Isotope Excursion methane hydrates

63 Gashydrate hypothesis Initial warming through CO 2 from vulkanism Deep Sea warming (1000 years) Heat through sediment to CH 4 hydrates (2000 years) Methane Fart

64 Take-home Messages CO 2 is a greenhouse gas (the grass is green, the sky is blue, if you increase the CO 2 concentration, it ll get warmer) CO 2 + associated feedbacks caused global climates >10 C warmer than now (early hippos ran for crocodiles in the swamp on subtropical Spitsbergen, Myrs ago) Fossil analogue indicates long recovery time for massive carbon input (long carbon cycle takes 100,000 yrs to store 5,000 Gt of carbon back into rocks)