3rd GENERAL ASSEMBLY

Transcription

1 3rd GENERAL ASSEMBLY 6 June 2008 Cankarjev Dom, Ljubljana, Slovenia 1 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

2 Contribution of Photovoltaics to the 2020 Targets and beyond or The Road ahead European PV Technology Platform Stefan Nowak, Joachim Luther, Wim Sinke 2 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

3 3 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

4 4 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

5 The Debate EC - 10 January 2007 EU-Council - 8 March 2007 G8-7 June General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

6 The Drivers 6 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

7 The Drivers An era of revolutionary transitions Step change in energy use Supply will struggle to keep pace Environmental stresses are increasing 7 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

8 Scenarios EJ/a geothermal other renewables solar thermal (heat only) solar power (PV and solar thermal generation) wind biomasse (advanced) biomasse (traditional) hydroelectricity nuclear power year 2100 gas coal oil Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, 8 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

9 Shell Scenarios 2008 Scramble Blueprints 9 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

10 10 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

11 ~ 2500 TWh 11 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

12 Turbulent times 12 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

13 From the PV TRAC Vision report 13 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

14 Electricity prices High: /MWh Low: /MWh Source: 14 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

15 What does this mean for PV? a tremendous opportunity! and a tremendous challenge! a lot of work! 15 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

16 PV in : just a milestone on the way to 2050! European electricity demand 2020: (DG TREN, 2007) 3500 TWh 3% of 3500 TWh 105 TWh Installed PV capacity 100 GW 16 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

17 but: there are other metrics! 17 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

18 and more metrics: 18 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

19 and: PV provides peak load! Source: M. Braun, ISET 19 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

20 Is PV on the right road???? YES! 20 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

21 Market development to 2006 Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in the IEA PVPS reporting countries Years Installed PV Power (MW) Grid-connected Off-grid > 40% growth multibillion $ market Source IEA PVPS 21 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

22 PV module production Source IEA PVPS 22 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

23 Solar cell production Global distribution 2006 USA : 6,8 % 23 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

24 Relative shares of global figures EU vs. Japan (estimates( estimates) 2007*: Global module production Total installed global capacity Installed capacity Europe 2.8 GWp ~ 9 GWp 4.5 GWp *2007: estimates 24 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

25 Relevant issues (and barriers) Cost / price and competitiveness Access to the grid Grid integration Administrative procedures Awareness Short term action and long-term impact Policy benefits 25 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

26 The benefits of PV Understanding the right sequence from a policy perspective industry and economy (short term) energy security and supply (mid term) environment (long term) 26 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

27 Realising the opportunities requires sustained action in Technology Markets Industry Policy 27 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

28 Required action Coherent and long-term strategic approach Strong but balanced action between technology development (R&D), regulatory framework and market deployment Sustainable market conditions Predictability and continuity (for investment) no stop&go Grid access and light administrative procedures Transparency and competition Urgency for an increased and sustained effort 28 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

29 The contribution of the PV TP Industry, research community and governments interacting in one body Position statements and recommendations with one voice (e.g. FP 7, EC Directives, SET Plan) R&D, Policy and market facilitation Dedicated projects Events, workshops and publications 29 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

30 Examples products 2007 Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) PV Fact sheets 30 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

31 SRA aims quantified characteristics of PV technology Rounded figures 1980 Today 2015 / Long term potential Typical turn-key system price > / (2007 /Wp, excl. VAT) (range 4~8) Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 /kwh) > / 0.12 (competitive with retail electricity) 0.06 (competitive with wholesale electricity) 0.03 Typical commercial flatplate module efficiencies (total area) up to 8% up to 15% Up to 20% up to 25% up to 40% Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies ( 10%) up to 25% Up to 30% up to 40% up to 60% Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs) > General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

32 PV in the SET plan (1) Targets At least 3% electricity by PV Reach grid-parity by 2020 in most of Europe Ensure a dominant position for the European PV industry 32 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

33 PV in the SET plan (2) Priority areas Support the PV industry in multi-gw production, in particular for equipment, processes, materials Ensure massive deployment in all market segments, with particular actions for BIPV / BAPV applications, grid integration and module recovery system Increase human resources in the sector Support communication and awareness 33 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

34 Conclusions PV has emerged from a visionary R&D field and is entering an impressive industrial development phase PV holds the promise of a major contribution to a sustainable electricity supply Strong, dedicated and fast action is needed to realise the huge potential of photovoltaics PV is part of the solution, not the problem! If we don t do it, others certainly will!! 34 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

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37 European Football Championships of course with PV! Zurich,, 240 kw Basel, 200 kw Bern, 1.35 MW 37 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

38 Dr. Stefan Nowak, Chairman IEA PVPS NET Nowak Energy & Technology Ltd. Waldweg 8, CH 1717 St. Ursen, Switzerland Tel / Fax stefan.nowak@netenergy.ch 38 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana