SOL, a publicly available system for real time flood forecasting supported by citizens for citizens

Transcription

1 SOL, a publicly available system for real time flood forecasting supported by citizens for citizens G. Ravazzani 1, A. Ceppi 1, C. Corbari 1, G. Lombardi 1, L. Cerri 1, S. Meucci 2, C. Maiorano 2, F. Bizzozzero 2, M. Mancini 1 1 Politecnico di Milano 2 Modellistica e Monitoraggio Idrologico 2 nd international conference CITIZEN OBSERVATORIES FOR NATURAL HAZARDS AND WATER MANAGEMENT 2018 VENICE 2018, November 27-30

2 MOTIVATION Milan is experiencing a long series of floods that cause huge damage to private activities and public infrastructures and services Existing flood defense structures are no more sufficient to mitigate flood hazard New flood detention pools have been planned, but their construction will take many years Flood early warning system supported by citizens for citizens

3 Rivers in Milan Ticino 1 Olona W N S 3 E Seveso 5 6 Pusiano Lambro River Tributary Waterways CSNO Lake Milano City River basin 2 7 Villoresi 4 Area (km 2 ) Olona = 208 Seveso = 207 Lambro = 500 Total = 1300 Naviglio Grande Milano Kilometers 8 Naviglio Pavese Adda

4 The bypass channel on Seveso river Olona Seveso Ticino Milan Bypass channel (CSNO, acronym from Italian Canale Scolmatore di Nord Ovest ). Built from 1954 to Discharge capacity 30 m 3 /s

5 Detention basins under construction Detention basin Total volume: Discharge (m 3 /s) September 2010 No detention basins With detention basins Warning threshold m /09/10 18/09/10 19/09/10 19/09/10 20/09/10 Discharge (m 3 /s) October 2010 No detention basins With detention basins Warning threshold 0 31/10/10 01/11/10 02/11/10 03/11/10 04/11/10

6 The regional civil protection warning system Regional macro-areas for meteorological and hydraulic warning issue Local warning area for Milan Warning issued when forecast (precipitation or discharge) exceedes a critical threshold

7 Discharge real time monitoring MOCAP, Monitoraggio Comunale Allerta di Piena (Flood monitoring for Municipality) River Seveso at Bovisio Masciago (MB)

8 Discharge real time monitoring AUTOMATIC MESSAGE TO THE LOCAL CIVIL PROTECTION STAFF AND AUTHORITY

9 Workshop for local civil protection technicians

10 Real time flood forecast for Seveso-Olona-Lambro - SOL

11 Uncertainty of deterministic forecast 00:00UTC-08/07/ :00UTC-08/07/2014 Observed precipitation: 43 mm 10 km 20:00UTC-07/07/ :00UTC-07/07/ km Forecasted precipitation: 31 mm Distance: 28 km

12 SOL multimodel approach Multi-model precipitation forecast GFS Deterministic models 50 km, Δt 3h, +144h Bolam Moloch 11 km, Δt 1h, +72h 1.5 km, Δt 1h, +45h Hydrograph forecasts & discharge thresholds Cosmo-i2 Cosmo-i7 2 km, Δt 3h, +48h 7 km, Δt 3h, +72h COSMO- LEPS Ensemble models 7 km, Δt 3h, +132h 16 ensemble WRF 5.5 km, Δt 1h, +72h 8 ensemble

13 Observed weather data: ARPA and MeteoNetwork stations ARPA Lombardy stations ARPA + Meteonetwork stations N N W E W E S S Arpa Meteonetwork

14 Crowdfunding campaign

15 Young generation civic awareness «Facchinetti»Technical high-school in Castellanza Alternanza scuola-lavoro programme OBJECTIVE: Design and manifacturing of a low-cost system for river discharge monitoring along the Olona river In collaboration with civil protection office of Canegrate municipality Sponsored by

16 Concluding remarks Progress of technology and awareness of atmospheric and hydrological phenomena makes flood forecasting systems available for managing flood risk in urban areas Civil protection Technicians at all levels are ready to use new technologies for making their intervention more effective. Citizens need more involvment for increasing awareness and preparedness to react to flood events. Let s start from youngers to create a new society

17 Contact THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION