Development Impacts Assessment of Low Emission Transport

Transcription

1 Transporta)on and Low Emission Development Strategies Workshop Development Impacts Assessment of Low Emission Transport Kathleen Nawaz Na,onal Renewable Energy Laboratory September 30, 2013 Manila 1

2 Introduc*on to DIA DIA iden*fies and evaluates the link between development objec;ves and LEDS ac;ons Each country has different development goals; the United Na)ons Millennium Development Goals (right) provide a useful characteriza*on They can be categorized as economic, social, and environmental/health Transporta;on has strong impacts on all of these development categories 2

3 Why Conduct DIA? Informs and supports decision- making on policies and programs to meet development objec*ves Links key development priori*es and low carbon transport strategies Improve effec*veness of development plans Can be applied to na;onal policies and programs, and to projects at the na*onal, regional and municipal level Incorporates new partners that may not otherwise be interested in climate protec*on Can increase access to climate and private finance 3

4 LEDS Transport Op*ons ASI Framework Avoid kilometers travelled Urban development planning Transporta*on demand management projects ShiG kilometers travelled Non- motorized transport Mass transit Improve kilometers travelled Fuel economy technologies Alterna*ve fuels 4

5 Development Impacts Economic Personal and business transport costs Trade (gross domes*c product) ability to reach customers, suppliers Employment and wages Energy security (and business security) Environment and Public Health GHG emissions Air pollu*on (linked to public health) Road safety Exercise increase Social Accessibility Community cohesion Equity (socioeconomic, gender, race, disability) Time savings 5

6 Variety of DIA Approaches Assessment approach, increasing levels of sophis;ca;on Choice depends on availability of studies, data, experts, funding, and tools Some impact categories (economic) may have more resources available than others (social) All strategies build on and incorporate each other 6

7 Economic Impacts: Travel Cost Calculators Model Audience Project Output Difficulty 1-10 Vehicle Cost Calculator Vehicle Purchasers FE improvements and alterna*ve fuels Cumula*ve $ spent on owning and opera*ng various vehicles 2 Fueleconomy.gov Trip Calculator Vehicle Purchasers FE improvements and alterna*ve fuels $ fuel cost for specific trip 1 Future Automo*ve Systems Fleet Operators, Traffic Flow Improvements, fuel savings of specific vehicles on Technology Simulator Road designers PHEVs various drive cycles 9 Vehicle Infrastructure Cash- CNG vehicles and refueling flow Evalua*on (VICE) Model Fleet Operators sta*on NPV, ROI, and payback period 5 Petroleum Reduc*on Alt Fuel, Fuel Econ, Idle and Planning (PReP) Tool Fleet Operators KMT Reduc*on, Ecodriving Fuel Cost Savings 2 Marginal Abatement Cost Companies, FE improvements and $/ton carbon abated for various? (MAC) Tool Policymakers alterna*ve fuels projects APTA Transit Savings Calculator Commuter Bus, BRT, or Rail Annual cost savings 1 Commuter, Comprehensive (including health) cost Public Health comparison between driving, cycling, Official Bicycling, Walking and walking? Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) Transport Emissions Evalua*on Models for Regional Projects (TEEMP) Planners BRT and Metro Tool for Rapid Assessment of City Energy (TRACE) City Planners Passenger Transport Annual costs and saving, including health externali*es 6 Recommenda*on of most cost- effec*ve efficiency- improving projects 7 7

8 Travel Cost Calculators Drive Cycle Comparison Speed (meters per second) LightsRemoved Original Removed stops Seconds into Drive Cycle Vehicle Cost Calculator FASTSim MAC Tool 8

9 Environmental Impacts: GHG Calculators Model Project Audience Difficulty 1-10 Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transporta*on (GREET) Alterna*ve Fuels (current and emerging) with over 100 feedstock/produc*on pathway/vehicle combina*ons Analysts & Policymakers 7 GREET Fleet (Simplified version of GREET) Exis*ng Alterna*ve Fuels Fleet Operators 3 Petroleum Reduc*on Planning (PReP) Tool Alt Fuel, Fuel Econ, Idle and KMT Reduc*on, Ecodriving Fleet Operators 3 Bikesharing program, Bikeway, BRT, Commuter Transport Emissions Evalua*on Models for Strategies, Ecodriving, Expressway, Parking Pricing, Pay- Transporta*on Planners, Projects (TEEMP) as- you- go Insurance, Rail (Freight and Commuter) Analysits, Policymakers 2-6 Long- range Energy Alterna*ves Planning (LEAP) System Energy Policy- big picture City Policymakers? All outputs are tons CO2e reduced, accoun*ng for the full lifecycle of the fuel GREET PReP 9

10 Environmental Impacts: Local Air Pollu*on Models to es*mate changes in emissions from transporta*on projects Difficulty 1-10 Model Project Audience Long- range Energy Alterna*ves Planning (LEAP) System Energy Policy- big picture City Policymakers? Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator Transporta*on Planners, (MOVES) Change in vehicle stock Analysits, Policymakers 9 Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transporta*on (GREET) Transport Emissions Evalua*on Models for Projects (TEEMP) Alterna*ve Fuels (current and emerging) with over 100 feedstock/produc*on pathway/vehicle combina*ons 7 Bikesharing, Bikeway, BRT, Commuter Rail, Expressway, Pedestrian Improvement Transporta*on Planners, Analysits, Policymakers

11 Health Impacts: Safety Mode shil is key to assessing mass transit Bicycle and Pedestrian projects have safety indices, and models to calculate Bicycle and Pedestrian projects have cri*cal mass levels at which they become much safer Data Source: Injury Facts, by Na;onal Safety Council,

12 Health Impacts: Exercise Rela*onships between land use mix, mul*- modal communi*es, *me in car, ac*ve transit, obesity, mul*ple diseases, and longevity have been established Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for Cycling and Walking was developed by WHO to quan*fy health (and other) benefits Source: Frank et. al., Obesity Rela*onships with Community Design, Physical Ac*vity and Time Spent in Cars,

13 Social Impacts: Accessibility Approach rates access to: Basic services (health care, educa*on, child care, public safety) Quality- of- life des*na*ons (shopping, recrea*on, worship, and cultural centers) Markets (employers, employees, suppliers, and customers) Four measures of accessibility: Change in travel *me to given loca*on Change in travel costs to given loca*on Change in number of choices to given loca*on Change in market reach for businesses Interviews, focus groups, surveys, and site analysis can detect much that models miss Weighted accessibility values es*mated by gravity models Transporta*on demand models forecast changes in aggregate travel *me and distance 13

14 Social Impacts: Travel Time Savings Goal is to minimize number of hours spent isolated in congested traffic Time spent on alterna*ve modes of transporta*on isn t as socially (or economically or environmentally) destruc*ve Travel demand models can usually minimize travel *me Savings calculated as difference between pre- project infrastructure and post- project Also important to reduce variability in travel *me Well established methods determine the value of travel *me savings (VTTS), based on income, comfort level, mul*- tasking 14

15 Social Impacts: Equity Increased choice of modes is key to an equitable transporta*on system Bicycle and Pedestrian compa*bility Indices are different than safety indices because they take convenience factors into account Barrier Effect must be assessed for roads and rails Quan*fied in terms of addi*onal travel delay experienced by age- specific pedestrians and cyclists Source: Guidebook for Assessing Social & Economic Effects of Transporta*on Projects, Transporta*on Research Board,

16 Quan*fying Impacts: Money as Common Metric Some environmental, health, and social impacts have well- established quan*fica*on methods: Time savings (based largely on salary) Road safety, air pollu*on, and lack of exercise (based on health care costs or risk payments in the case of mortality) Accessibility (based on willingness to pay) 16

17 Conclusions DIA helps to iden)fy and evaluate the link between development objec)ves and low carbon transport Numerous economic, health, environmental, and social impacts have well established ways to assess impacts The studies, guides, and tools available for assessments depend on the impact Conver)ng impacts to es)mated monetary value supports comparison of impacts 17

18 LEDS GP and DIA Transport Working Group DIA/transport webinar held September 25 th (posted shortly at Regional workshops (next one in Mexico City on October 23 rd - 24 th ) Transport Toolkit (ledsgp.org/transport) Remote expert assistance DIA Working Group DIA web applica*on (under development) DIA country- level case studies Country- level workshops (co- sponsored with the USG EC- LEDS ini*a*ve) Refinement of DIA visual tool (pilo*ng in several countries) 18

19 Contacts and Informa;on Resources Website Speaker LEDS Contacts Kathleen Nawaz NREL LEDS GP Transport Working Group hrp://ledsgp.org/sector/transport LEDS GP DIA Working Group hrp://ledsgp.org/analysis/impacts 19