EFOM/ENV - Energy Flow Optimisation Model for the Czech Republic

Transcription

1 EFOM/ENV - Energy Flow Optimisation Model for the Czech Republic Workshop on Assessing The Impacts Of Environmental Regulation By Macroeconomic Models 24 November 29, Charles University Prague Jiří Spitz ENVIROS, s. r. o.

2 model used description and structure model results typical model uses Contents modelling possibilities of environmental regulation examples conclusions

3 Model used EFOM/ENV (Energy Flow Optimisation Model - Environmental) the Czech version developed within PHARE and SYNERGY projects linear optimisation model cost minimisation technological bottom-up model covers energy production, transformations and consumption energy carriers correspond to the energy balance about 5 technologies time horizon up to 25 (5-year steps) calculates emissions of CO 2, NO X, SO 2, CO and particulates, other emissions are possible use of additional abatement technologies

4 Modelled sectors Sectors of the EFOM/ENV model (sectors are further structured but not by NACE) Consumer o Agriculture o Industry o Transport o Services o Households Transformation o Coal industry o Oil industry o Gas industry o Public electricity and heat production o Industrial combined electricity and heat production

5 Hierarchical structure sectors (those from the previous slide) producers (heat production, heat distribution, appliances...) o units (individual technologies) energy flows processes (different heat:electricity production shares of the same unit) internal between producers external o input (energy resources, imports...) o output (energy demand, exports...)

6 Model results complete energy balances by all energy carriers, sectors and periods CO 2, NO X, SO 2, CO and particulates emissions by sectors and periods installed capacities and productions (levels) of all technologies by periods abatement technologies connected with individual technologies energy flows (external and internal) by energy carriers and periods investment and total discounted costs by sectors and periods

7 Typical model uses development of scenarios for state energy policy GHG emission projections projections of other emissions analyses for energy companies data submissions into EU-wide RAINS/GAINS models

8 Modelling Possibilities of Environmental Regulation global emission limits cost-abatement curves energy taxes preferential feed-in tariffs for energy produced from RES or co-generation emission taxes

9 Global Emission Limits we can set system-wide limits for each pollutant in each period used for modelling of international commitments (e. g. emission limits given by the CLRTAP protocol) national emission targetts possible improvement emission limits by sectors

10 Cost-abatement Curves use of global emission limits for sensitivity analysis calculate maximum emissions without any limits calculate minimum emissions regardless of costs stepwise decrease the limit from the maximum to the minimum value as a result we get the curve of emission reduction vs. marginal costs

11 Energy Taxes each energy flow within the model can have its price we can use this item i. a. for introduction of energy taxes taxes can be differentiated by sectors and energy carriers

12 Preferential Feed-in Tariffs opposite use of energy flows prices using negative prices we can model preferential feed-in tariffs for energyproducedftom RES or from co-generation

13 setting prices for emissions Emission Taxes currently only on the global level possible improvement emission prices on the sector or even technology level

14 Impact of CO 2 emission limits CO2 [mln. t] CO2 emission [mln. t] - Basic NEK - version w/o new NPP Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] CO2 [mln. t] CO2 emission [mln. t] - Basic NEK - version w/ strong emission limits and w/o new NPP Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission Emission limit Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission Emission limit Domestic consumption of primary energy sources - Basic NEK - version w/o new NPP Domestic consumption of primary energy sources - Basic NEK - version w/ strong emission limits and w/o new NPP [PJ] 1 [PJ] Brown coal Hard coal + coke Other solid fuels Crude oil Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels Nuclear fuel Electricity Renewable energy Brown coal Hard coal + coke Other solid fuels Crude oil Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels Nuclear fuel Electricity Renewable energy

15 Impact of fuel taxes CO2 emission [mln. t] - Scenario without ecological tax reform, mild NOx limits CO2 emission [mln. t] - Scenario with ecological tax reform, mild NOx limits CO2 [mln. t] Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] CO2 [mln. t] Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission Emission limit Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission Emission limit Sctructure of heat generation - Scenario without ecological tax reform, mild NOx limits Sctructure of heat generation - Scenario with ecological tax reform, mild NOx limits [PJ] Brown coal Hard coal + coke Other solid fuels Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels Nuclear fuel Renewable energy [PJ] Brown coal Hard coal + coke Other solid fuels Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels Nuclear fuel Renewable energy

16 Impact of CO 2 emission tax CO2 emission [mln. t] - Basic NEK - version 1 - w/o CO2 emission tax CO2 emission [mln. t] - Basic NEK - version 1 CO2 [mln. t] ,,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] CO2 [mln. t] Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] , Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission Emission limit Emission reduction marginal costs [CZK/t] Emission Emission limit Domestic consumption of primary energy sources - Basic NEK - version 1 - w/o CO2 emission tax Domestic consumption of primary energy sources - Basic NEK - version [PJ] 1 [PJ] Brown coal Hard coal + coke Other solid fuels Crude oil Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels Nuclear fuel Electricity Renewable energy Brown coal Hard coal + coke Other solid fuels Crude oil Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels Nuclear fuel Electricity Renewable energy

17 Example of cost-abatement curve Reference scenario 3 Marginal costs [ /ton CO2] Redukction of CO 2 emission [1^6 ton]

18 model EFOM/ENV Conclusions covers the whole energy system is regularly used for scenario development and evaluation for various purposes can be used for modelling of some aspects of environmental regulation has some potential of methodological improvements for environmental regulation modelling covers only the energy system no connection to macro-economy

19 Contact Jiří Spitz ENVIROS, s. r. o. Na Rovnosti 1 13 Praha 1 Czech Republic tel.: jiri.spitz@enviros.cz