ESPON Climate Climate change and territorial effects on European regions and economy. Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund) Philipp Schmidt-Thomé (GTK)

Transcription

1 ESPON Climate Climate change and territorial effects on European regions and economy Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund) Philipp Schmidt-Thomé (GTK)

2 Table of contents Research concept Overall methodology First results of Climate change exposure analysis Sensitivity of European regions

3 Research concept (I) Existing studies are sectoral oriented i.e. they aim to measure the effects of climate change on different sectors. Troublesome in the ESPON context where a territorially comprehensive and thematically integrated approach is needed d not as a substitute, t but as a complement to specialised studies. Focus on territorial dimension = typology of regions similarly affected, sensitive and adaptive to climate change. Prerequisite for territorially differentiated response strategies, the TA proclaimed: Further work is required to develop and intensify territorial cohesion policy, particularly with respect to the consequences of territorially differentiated adaptation strategies. Priority 5, topic 23).

4 Research concept (II) Ongoing advanced assessments on European level. ESPON Climate should not try to reinvent the wheel having less resources at hand Addressing social and economic cohesion as well. Being in line with the division of sustainable development into social, economic and environmental dimensions. Adding relevant other issues (institutional misfits and cultural dimension) Cause-effect chains ( Vulnerable to what? ) are still considered.

5 Conceptual frame for assessing vulnerability of Europe s regions to climate change (Füssel & Klein 2006)

6 Research concept (IV) An integrated mainly territorially oriented sensitivity assessment seems indispensable for answering other main research questions raised by the tender and interpreted as hypothesis for further investigations, such as: Different types of European regions are differently vulnerable. Different types of European regions need tailor-made mitigation and adaptation measures to cope with climate change. There are potentially new development opportunities for European regions in the wake of climate change. Different types of European regions are characterised by different territorial potentials for mitigation of climate change. There are new types of regions emerging, revealing the same characteristics regarding both, their adaptation and mitigation capacities. For that purpose, a new typology of regions has to be developed, characterised by similarities regarding climatic stimuli and their sensitivity.

7 Flow of research activities until the Interim Report and beyond: Combining exposure and sensitivity indicators Relating impact and adaptive capacity indicators The case studies as plausibility test of the proposed methodology and providing feedback Overall methodology

8 Factor analysis to optimise analysis of a region s exposure to the six different climatic stimuli. Complexity reduced by grouping correlated climate stimuli. Final result: typology of regions which are similarly exposed (identified through a cluster analysis for each factor group). Sensitivity analysis for 6 sensitivity dimensions. Detailed methodology (I)

9 Detailed methodology (II) Regional exposure and sensitivity combined to explore impacts of climate change for each factor group. Impacts and adaptive capacity combined to determine overall vulnerability to climate change, for each factor group separately. The CC vulnerability typology map overlaid with regional typologies of other ESPON projects to identify new types of CC regions with similar characteristics. Potential impacts Vulnerability Regional exposure typologies n factor groups 2.6: Case studies Indexed overlay / intersection Single impact map for each factor group (6 * n maps) Weighted Overlay (based on Delphi) Aggregated impact map for each factor group Plausibility test and feedback Single sensitivity maps (6/12/18 maps) 6 sensitivity dimensions 2.5: Vulnerability map for each factor group Sensitivity maps for each economic sector policy review 2.4: Adaptive capacity indicators

10 Detailed methodology The weighting between Individual exposure indicators the six sensitivity Factor Partial dimensions, analysis aggregation exposure and sensitivity, Exposure 6 sensitivity dimensions per factor group foreachexposurefactorgroup impacts and adaptive capacity Overlay / Intersection is mainly determined by normative factors (values, Impact for each factor group/sensitivity political preferences etc.) combination Weighted Will be done by means of a aggregation Delphi survey. Experts are: Aggregated impact foreachfactorgroup The members of the MC and the ECPs for a balanced Weighted overlay geographical distribution and Vulnerability integration of politics for each factor group The ESPON Community: Interested experts may express their interest by registering on our homepage Individual sensitivity indicators Weighted aggregation Sensitivity for 6 sensitivity dimensions Adaptive capacity

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12 First results of Climate change exposure analysis Exposure indicators (derived from CCLM Data for scenario A1B) Absolute change in temperature: absolute change in mean annual temperature Relative changes in precipitation and hydrology: relative change in mean summer precipitation relative change in mean winter precipitation relative change in mean annual evaporation relative change in mean annual surface runoff Absolute change in extreme events: absolute change in annual frost days absolute change in annual summer days absolute change in annual number of days with heavy rainfall absolute change in annual days with snow cover Time periods: , , , runs per scenario; 3 runs for datasets

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18 Sensitivity assessment Sensitivity to climatic stimuli will be determined as the next step. Sensitivity to climatic stimuli will be determined as the next step. The ESPON Climate project is not operating primarily at the level of individual indicators, but at a more aggregated level of sensitivity dimensions, which will then allow further aggregation and an integrated comparison of all ESPON regions. Six key dimensions to climate change; map production of the spatially diverse impact of these dimensions: Ph i l Physical Societal Environmental Economic Economic Cultural Institutional

19 Emission scenarios and time periods Use of A1B emission scenario: the A1 scenario presumes business as usual, i.e. a continuous increase of human CO 2 emissions. A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. Umfangreiche soziale und kulturelle Interaktion weltweit. There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis: A1B subset - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources. B 1 is not realistic anymore as annual growth rate of global emissions after 2000 has been about 3%, while growth rates under the emissions scenarios is between 1.4% and 3.4%.

20 Exposure assessment - Different emission scenarios and time periods IPCC emission scenario date are not available on national or regional level: Population Projections for scenario A1 and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emis Western Europe Eastern Europe World Global GDP per capita projections for scenario A1B in Trillion US $ , , , , , , , , , , ,1

21 Example: Social sensitivity Exposure factors Winter/summer precipitation, evaporation, frost days Social sensitivity indicators Population in river valleys Low income households Mean temperature, heavy rainfall days Hot summer days Snow coverage Sea level rise Surface runoff Total population Elderly citizens Low income households Population in areas up to 5 metres above mean sea level

22 Indicators for assessing sensitivity shown by the example of physical sensitivity Topic Indicator Relevant climate stimuli Relevant cause-effect chains Data source Spatial coverage and resolution Building stock % of settlement t area in - Increase in winter Changing temperature t and moisture CORINE NUTS 3 relation to total NUTS 3 area precipitation - Decrease in frost days - Increase of annual mean temperatures conditions have structural effects on buildings Buildings that are especially climate sensitive Dense built environment Settlements prone to river floods Settlements prone to coastal storm surges Infrastructure prone to river floods Infrastructure prone to coastal storm surges % of informal buildings/ - Increase of summer temporal dwellings days - Increase in winter precipitation - Decease of frost days - Increase of annual mean temperatures Density of housing - Increase of summer units, industrial and days commercial establishments % of settlement area - Increase in heavy below 5 m a.m.s.l. and precipitation in flood prone river valleys % of settlement area below 5 m a.m.s.l. and in flood prone river valleys % of streets, rail networks, power plants in flood prone river valleys % of streets, rail networks, power plants in areas below 5 m a.m.s.l. Changing temperature and moisture conditions have structural effects on buildings Higher temperatures in the summer create heat islands in densely built-up settlements River flooding can damage or destroy buildings in affected areas - Rise of sea levels Sea level rise may allow coastal storm surges to damage or destroy buildings in affected areas - Increase in heavy precipitation River flooding can damage or destroy buildings in affected areas - Rise of sea levels Sea level rise may allow coastal storm surges to damage or destroy buildings in affected areas CORINE NUTS 3 NUTS 3 CORINE NUTS 3 CORINE NUTS 3 IRPUD NUTS 3 IRPUD NUTS 3

23 Indicators for assessing sensitivity shown by the example of environmental sensitivity Topic Indicator Relevant climate stimuli Forests Occurence of forest - Increase of heat days fires - Increase of mean annual temperatures - Decrease of summer River valleys prone to flooding Especially sensitive/protected natural areas Sensitive/protected natural areas prone to coastal storm surges Especially sensitive species Regional flood hazard potential Share of Natura 2000 areas in relation to total NUTS 3 area Share of Natura 2000 areas below 5 m a.m.s.l.b lb Share of wet/dry adapted species in Natura 2000 areas precipitation - Increase of annual precipitation - Decrease of frost days - Increase of heat days - Increase/decrease of annual mean temperatures - Increase/decrease of annual precipitation Relevant cause-effect chains Data source Spatial coverage and resolution Changed temperature and moisture ESPON NUTS 3 conditions in the summer increase the risk Hazards of forest fires Increased precipitation and less retention of precipitation increases flood risks Changing temperature and moisture conditions affect fauna and flora of Natura 2000 areas - Sea level rise Changing sea levels may flood Natura 2000 areas and affect their fauna and flora - Increase of heat days - Increase/decrease of annual mean temperatures - Increase/decrease of annual precipitation Changing temperature and moisture conditions affect fauna and flora necessary for survival of special species ESPON Hazards Natura 2000, EEA Natura 2000, EEA Natura 2000, EEA NUTS 3 NUTS 3 NUTS 3 NUTS 3 Ecological l areas Share of sensitive - Increase of heat days Changing temperature t and moisture EEA, ETC/NC NUTS 3 especially sensitive to climate change ecoregions in relation to total NUTS 3 area conditions affect fauna and flora of ecoregions Ecological areas especially sensitive to climate change Urban areas especially sensitive to climate Percentage of fragmented natural areas Share of green corridors in built-up area of NUTS 3 total - Increase/decrease of annual mean temperatures - Increase/decrease of annual precipitation - Increase of heat days - Increase/decrease of annual mean temperatures - Increase/decrease of annual precipitation - Increase of heat days - Increase/decrease of annual mean Changing temperature and moisture conditions affect fauna and flora of small natural areas, leading to their decreasing or disappearing Changing temperature and moisture conditions affect fauna and flora of green corridors, thus further affecting urban micro ESPON Hazards NUTS 3 Urban Audit NUTS 3