Research Networks to help reduce Global Warming

Transcription

1 Research Networks to help reduce Global Warming Bill St. Arnaud CANARIE Inc Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

2 The Climate Change Imperative > One of, if not, the greatest threat to our future society and economy is global warming. > 15-30% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 will be needed to keep the temperature increase under 2 C, and a deeper reduction by 60-80% may be needed by 2050.* > Past IPCC assessments have underestimated the pace of change > Latest data indicates we are at the high end of projections > It will be necessary to go beyond incremental improvements in energy efficiency, current life-styles and business practices. Significantly more drastic measures will need to be undertaken *International Panel on Climate Change 2

3 The Climate Change Threat Obama s National Science Advisor John Holdren on Global Climate Disruption Stephen Chu new head of DoE Wake up America!! USGS Abrupt Climate Change report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.1C

4 Climate Forecasts MIT

5 Our Challenge 26 tons/person j? 2 tons/person j j ton/person 2100 Source: Stern

6 ICT and Cyber-Infrastructure is critical to reducing CO2 > Direct emissions of Internet and ICT are important at 2-3% of world emissions but, in order of impact, the most significant contribution we can make is through leveraged, or indirect, emissions reductions. > According to SMART 2020 these represent as much as a 15% reduction opportunity in global emissions. > But we need to measure these GHG savings via independent 3 rd party auditing Far too much hand waving and speculation Many of the claims of energy efficiency will be lost to Jevons Paradox ISO audits essential to validate such reductions

7 ICT s Enabling Effect is Significant > Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector s own footprint by Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent Greater than US or China s current annual emissions > Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes, and Power > No other sector can achieve this enabler effect!! Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age,

8 The Carbon Economy $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050 $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG emissions credits by 2030 $57 trillion - Carbon Disclosure Project signatories, 1000s of companies participating, expanding to supply chain accounting Obama s cap and trade estimated produce $645 billion carbon trading in North America in the next 5 years To be eligible to earn some of these revenues ICT industry must go through ISO process for all products and services that claim to reduce CO2e and join registries etc

9 But first we must clean up our own act > ICT is 2-3% of GHG emissions mostly through consumption of electricity produced by coal powered generating stations > ICT energy consumption is expected to double over the next 4 to 6 years > Even greater ICT deployment will be needed for GHG abatement in other sectors such as smart buildings etc > ICT represent 9.4% of total US electricity consumption, and 5.3% of global electricity consumption > Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity 13

10 The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency > Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes > But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc > Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect) In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances 14

11 Zero Carbon strategy essential > Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe > With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for ICT services will not effect GHG emissions Anything times zero is always zero > Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy > But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load 15

12 Zero Carbon ICT > Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically > ICT facilities DON T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities > But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site > ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe 16

13 Optical networks, SOA and Virtualization are key > Optical networks (as opposed to electronic routed networks) have much smaller carbon footprint > Significant reduced CO2 impacts are possible through use of SOA, web services, virtualization, UCLP, grids, Web 2.0, NGI etc. > Computer and networks architectures to connect remote computers, databases and instruments will be essential for zero carbon ICT

14 CANARIE Green-IT Pilot > $3m - $4m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-it pilot testbed > Two objectives: Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind grid Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent in services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers > International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia 25

15 PROMPT Next Generation Internet to Reduce Global Warming Research on router, optical, W/W-less and distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc. Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by following wind & sun networks. Sources: GENI and Inocybe 27

16 Possible research areas > Dynamic all optical networks with solar or wind powered optical repeaters > Wireless mesh ad-hoc networks with mini-solar panels at nodes > New Internet architectures with servers, computers and storage collocated at remote renewable energy sites such as hydro dams, windmill farms, etc > New routing and resiliency architectures for wired and wireless networks for massively disruptive topology changes due to setting sun or waning winds that power routers and servers > New grid and data storage architectures with distributed replication and virtual machines (VM turntables, Hadoop) for follow the sun and follow the wind grids > New stats and measurement analysis of bits per carbon (bpc) utilization, optimized carbon routing tables, etc

17 GENI Topology optimized by source destination Sensor Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Mobile Wireless Network Thin Client Edge Site Source: Peter Freeman NSF

18 GENI with remote nodes at renewable energy sites Sensor Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Mobile Wireless Network Topology optimized by availability of energy Thin Client Edge Site Source: Peter Freeman NSF

19 Carbon rewards rather than carbon taxes- gcommerce > Providing free download music, video, and electronic books in exchange for carbon fees on parking, transportation etc > Free distant learning courses rather than telecommuting > Free advanced tele-presence systems in exchange for carbon fees assessed on business travel > Free mobile cell phone using femto cell and Wifi on public transportation > ICT and Internet is in the best position to dominate new world of gcommerce 31

20 Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure > Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs) > Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill > Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output > Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity + broadband + telephone + cable > Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play 33

21 Conclusion > Cyber-infrastructure is part of the problem but its also part of the solution Advanced optical research networks are essential for Green IT > Start planning for the ultimate disaster of significant energy cutbacks > Three step strategy to use ICT and cyber-infrastructure to reduce GHG emissions: 1. Clean up our own act first zero carbon Internet and cyber-infrastructure 1. Use ICT for abatement in other areas: Smart buildings, smart grid etc 1. Use ICT as a reward mechanism to promote reduction of GHG emissions gcommerce 34

22 Train your IT staff in offsets > Not for profit elearning institute > The institute offers rigorous online training and workshops on GHG accounting, auditing and management. > Most participants are from IT industry > Absolutely essential if you want to sell carbon offsets > 35

23 Thank you > More information > > > 33