Energy in Perspective

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1 Energy in Perspective BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Christof Rühl Deputy Chief Economist London, 12 June 27

2 Outline Introduction What has changed? The medium term What is new? 26 in review Conclusion

3 Energy Prices Index 1991= Oil (dated Brent) Gas basket Coal basket Weighted average

4 World Energy Consumption Growth Average annual growth 6% Excl. China 5% 4% 3% % 1% % World Primary Energy OECD Non-OECD Oil Gas Coal

5 World Economic Growth Average annual growth (PPP) 1% 8% 6% 4% % % World OECD FSU China Other EMEs excl. China

6 Income Elasticities of Energy Demand Elasticity World Primary Energy World excl. China OECD Non- OECD Oil Gas Coal

7 World Fuel Shares Share of global primary energy consumption 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear %

8 Carbon Emissions 14 World Carbon Emissions Index: 199 = Carbon Intensity Tonnes of carbon per tonne of primary energy use 13 World 1. China Annex Annex 1 Ratified World.75 OECD

9 Shares of World Energy Consumption Other EMEs 18% US 23% Other EMEs 23% US 21% China 9% FSU 17% Other OECD 11% Europe 22% China 16% FSU 1% Other OECD 12% Europe 18% 8.2 Billion toe 1.9 Billion toe

10 Regional Growth of Gas Production 5 year cumulative changes in natural gas production by region Billion cubic metres N America Europe S & C America FSU Africa Middle East Asia Pacific

11 World Oil Production Million b/d Million b/d OECD Non-OPEC, ex OECD and FSU Million b/d Million b/d FSU OPEC

12 Energy Trade Billion tonnes oil equivalent Net inter-regional exports Africa Mid-East FSU S&C America Net inter-regional imports Europe Asia Pacific N. America

13 World Economic Growth Global GDP growth (PPP) Regional GDP growth in 26 (PPP) 6% 8% 1-year average 7% 5% 4% 1-year average 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % N. America S&C America EU-25 FSU Middle East Africa Asia Pacific Source: IMF WEO

14 GDP and Primary Energy Growth Growth 6% Primary energy consumption GDP (PPP) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %

15 World Energy Consumption Growth Million tonnes oil equivalent 5 China Other non-oecd OECD Oil Coal Gas Others

16 Primary Energy Growth by Fuel % Growth in % 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Fuel Price Growth Oil Natural Gas Coal 1 Coal Hydro Gas Nuclear Oil

17 GDP, Energy and Carbon Emissions Growth of GDP and energy in 26 Growth of energy and carbon emissions in 26 World Non- OECD GDP Primary energy -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% OECD Primary energy Carbon emissions -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8%

18 Oil Prices US dollars per barrel 8 Dated Brent Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 May-6 Sep-6 Jan-7 May-7

19 OECD Total Commercial Stocks Billion barrels 2.8 OECD stocks (lhs): range 26 / Spare OPEC capacity (million barrels daily, rhs) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Source: IEA, EIA

20 Oil Consumption Growth in 26 by region b/d Oil importing regions 5 4 Oil exporting regions 1-year average China Europe Other Asia Pacific North America Middle East FSU S&C America Africa

21 Oil Production Changes in 26 in excess of 1, b/d b/d Non-OPEC FSU OPEC Decrease Increase UAE Russia Azerbaijan Angola Iraq Canada Venezuela Nigeria UK Norway Saudi Arabia

22 Refining Throughput Changes in 26 b/d N America S&C America Europe FSU Middle East Africa Asia Pacific World

23 Natural Gas Prices US dollars per million Btu 35 3 NBP Henry Hub USGC residual fuel oil Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7

24 US Inter-fuel Substitution b/d US dollars per million Btu 4 2 Change in resid used in powergen (lhs) Gas premium/discount (rhs) Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7-4 Source: DOE/EIA

25 Russia Gas Supply and demand changes between 21 and 26 Billion cubic metres 8 6 Total production Domestic consumption 4 Exports to Europe 2 Net Exports to CIS -2

26 LNG Trade Trade changes in 26 in excess of 1 billion cubic metres Billion cubic metres Importers Billion cubic metres Exporters Japan South Korea UK Spain India Belgium France China US Egypt Nigeria Qatar Australia Oman Trinidad Algeria Indonesia Source: Cedigaz

27 Coal Consumption Global consumption growth 26 Consumption growth outside China 26 Million tonnes oil equivalent Million tonnes oil equivalent 14 India Indonesia China 72% UK 4 6 Japan RoW 28% Spain USA -7-3

28 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Euros per tonne of CO 2 equivalent Contract price Spot price 28 Contract price Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Source: Point Carbon

29 Non-Fossil Fuels Change in Nuclear and Hydro generation Ethanol production Million tonnes oil equivalent Hydro Nuclear Million tonnes oil equivalent 2 US Brazil Other

30 World Oil Reserves Billion barrels Middle East Europe & Eurasia North America Other Canadian oil sands S&C America Africa Asia Pacific

31 GDP, Primary Energy and Carbon Emissions Index: 199 = Primary energy consumption Carbon emissions GDP

32 Conclusions Medium term Fast economic growth driving energy consumption growth Coal fastest growing fuel Non-OECD growth trends generate more energy intensive and carbon intensive growth Rising energy prices 26 in review Slower (but above average) consumption growth Consumption responsive to price, especially in OECD Rapid coal growth; carbon intensity increased OPEC re-engages

33 Energy in Perspective BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Q & A Peter Davies Christof Rühl