Effective coverage targets for ocean protection

Transcription

1 Effective coverage targets for ocean protection Dr Bethan O Leary University of York, bethan.oleary@york.ac.uk CIEEM UK Overseas Territories and Marine & Coastal Group Conference 2016: Protecting marine and coastal areas in the UK and Overseas Territories 21 st September 2016, London Photo: Alex Mustard

2 Global targets for marine protection: Aichi Biodiversity Target 11: By 2020, at least 17 per cent of terrestrial and inland water areas and 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas, especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, are conserved through effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative and well-connected systems of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, and integrated into the wider landscape and seascape. By 2020, conserve at least 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas

3 6% 2.4% Current Situation 3.5% protected, 1.6% marine reserves globally 8.4% EEZs, 0.25% ABNJ Lubchenco & Grorud-Colvert (2015)

4 No deadline Urgently increase the ocean area that is effectively and equitably managed in ecologically representative and well-connected systems of MPAs or other effective conservation measures. [ ] should include at least 30% of each marine habitat. [ ] which has no extractive activities. No-take / marine reserve Minimum goal

5 Effective coverage targets for ocean protection: Aim Qu: Are existing targets for ocean protection adequate to achieve, maximise, or optimise the various objectives expected from MPAs? Investigated six MPA objectives (1) protect biodiversity (2) ensure population connectivity among MPAs (3) minimise the risk of fisheries/population collapse and ensure population persistence (4) mitigate the adverse evolutionary effects of fishing (5) maximise or optimise fisheries value or yield (6) satisfy multiple stakeholders Priorities: Conservation, socioeconomic, elements of both

6 Effective coverage targets for ocean protection: Methods WoS, Scopus (last update Oct 2015) bibliographic search of relevant reviews Duplicates (5,866) Additional papers from: bibliographic checking (7) expert knowledge (8) Articles identified through database searches (21,010) Articles screened (12,087) Title and abstract screening Potentially relevant at full text: (398) 6,221 articles Articles excluded at title and abstract: (4,142) 398 articles Unable to source full text (13) Inadequate sample size (40) No relevant population (5) No relevant intervention / exposure (45) Structured literature search Screening Inclusion criteria: English; marine; should consider MPA coverage, >4 % coverages explored, results clearly indicate where objective was achieved/ maximised/ optimised Full text screening Excluded articles (323) No relevant comparator (1) No relevant outcome (172) No quantitative data (31) Articles Relevant articles (126) 126 articles Relevant review (19) Other (10) Studies Data extraction Relevant studies (144)

7 Effective coverage targets for ocean protection: Methods Duplicates (5,866) Articles identified through database searches (21,010) Articles screened (12,087) Structured literature search Title and abstract screening Potentially relevant at full text: (398) Articles excluded at title and abstract: (4,142) Additional papers from: bibliographic checking (7) expert knowledge (8) Unable to source full text (13) Inadequate sample size (40) No relevant population (5) No relevant intervention / exposure (45) Screening Full text screening Excluded articles (323) No relevant comparator (1) No relevant outcome (172) No quantitative data (31) Assigned studies to obj Extracted percent coverage reported in each study as required to achieve/ maximise/ optimise benefits against obj. Data extraction Data analysis Articles Studies Relevant articles (126) Data extraction Relevant studies (144) Relevant review (19) Other (10) 1. Equal weighting, studies Kruskal Wallis: objs. Mann Whitney U: temp. vs trop. 2. Equal weighting, objs Compared mean, median, modal group

8 MPA coverage (%) Effective coverage targets for ocean protection: Results 126 relevant articles published , 144 studies 96.8% used modelling approaches x =37 M=37 N=29 x =33 M=27 N=9 x =41 M=46 N=20 x =39 M=35 N=4 x =40 M=40 N=58 x =30 M= 33 N=24 Mean: Med: N= number of studies Protect biodiversity Ensure connectivity Avoid collapse Avoid adverse evolution Fisheries value Multiple stakeholders MPA objective

9 Number of studies Effective coverage targets for ocean protection: Results Cumulative frequency (%) Mean 37% Median 35% Modal group N = 144 studies 0 0 Required coverage for protection (%) Equal weighting of objectives had minimal effect on results: mean 35%, median 32%, modal group 21-30% No significant difference between temperate and tropical studies

10 Effective coverage targets for ocean protection: Conclusions Objectives are rarely secure with MPA coverage in single percentage figures. 10% coverage is unlikely to be enough to secure the objectives of MPAs. Tens-of-percent are more justified Consistent across the diverse objectives we examined and in temperate and tropical settings. Opportunity to strategically design MPA networks to achieve many objectives simultaneously.

11 Effective coverage targets for ocean protection: Study limitations Based on combining the results of theoretical studies which depend on the scenario considered. No studies explicitly considered global MPA coverage, therefore scaling up study results. Required MPA coverages varied substantially: Theoretically optimal management can either exclude MPAs entirely or restrict human activities to very small areas of the sea and protect the remainder. But, given that MPAs/networks are designed to achieve multiple objectives mean and median results will be more representative than extremes.

12 Feasibility of increasing targets Achievements in 2015 and 2016 show this is possible Our research shows its necessary and beneficial Research suggests vital for rebuilding oceans to mitigate and adapt to climate change (Roberts et al. in press)( ) and that expanding no-take MPA coverage is economically beneficial (Brander et al 2015) and cost-effective (Ban et al. 2011, McCrea-Strub et al. 2011) But need Very Large MPAs and MPAs on high seas 1 1 ABNJ=58% of the oceans. 42% is under national jurisdiction. To meet the UN 10% of oceans as MPAs we would need to protect 24% of EEZs (10%/42%). To meet a 30% target would need to protect 71% (30%/42%) protect of EEZs.

13 The World Conservation Congress, at its session in Hawai i, United States of America, 1-10 September 2016: ENCOURAGES IUCN State and Government Agency Members to designate and implement at least 30% of each marine habitat in a network of highly protected MPAs [ ], by: a. committing to work towards designating and effectively implementing at least 30% of their national waters as MPAs [ ]; and b. engaging constructively in establishing MPAs in (ABNJ), areas of joint international management and their own jurisdictions, including through: i. the development of a new instrument under the (UNCLOS) for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, [ ], that [ ] contains a robust mechanism for establishing [ ] marine protected areas, including reserves; and ii. the adoption of existing [ ] MPA proposals in 2016 [ ]; URGES IUCN State Members to accelerate progress towards achieving Aichi Target 11 by 2020 ENCOURAGES the Parties to the CBD to consider a new process for developing post-2020 targets to increase the percentage of marine areas highly protected to 30% by 2030 [ ]

14 Reality check By 2020, at least 17 per cent of terrestrial and inland water areas and 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas, especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, are conserved through effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative and well-connected systems of protected areas and other effective areabased conservation measures, and integrated into the wider landscape and seascape. Need to make sure we pay attention to the more qualitative elements of the Aichi Target that are less easily measured

15 What do increasing targets mean for the UK and UKOTs? Criticism: Countries with OTs can meet conservation targets with Very Large MPAs and gain international recognition while neglecting domestic conservation issues: UK: 22% of waters protected in marine reserves (incl. Pitcairn) but only 0.16% UK EEZ in three small marine reserves (Shugart-Schmidt et al. 2015) UKOTS: VLMPAs: South Georgia & South Sandwich Islands (existing), St Helena & Tristan da Cunha (proposed) VLMRs: Chagos & Pitcairn (existing), Ascension (proposed) Other OTs Anguilla, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Bermuda, British Antarctic Territory, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands

16 Photo: Alex Mustard

17 Thanks to: The Pew Charitable Trusts, Callum Roberts, Julie Hawkins, Marit Winther-Janson, John Bainbridge, Jemma Aitken Photo: Alex Mustard