Way forward for GAW. Øystein Hov Chair JSC OPAG EPAC Norwegian Meteorological Institute GAW Workshop WMO Geneva March 2013

Transcription

1 Way forward for GAW Øystein Hov Chair JSC OPAG EPAC Norwegian Meteorological Institute GAW Workshop WMO Geneva March 2013

2 Mandate of WMO Protect life and property, safeguard the environment, contribute to sustainable development, promote long-term observation of meteorological, hydrological, climatological data, incl related environmental data, promote capacity-building, meet international commitments

3 Rationale for GAW: to understand and control the increasing influence of human activity on the global atmosphere Challenges Stratospheric ozone depletion and UV increase Weather and climate change from greenhouse gases, ozone and aerosols Air pollution impacts human health and ecosystems Socio-economic consequences of weather, climate, human and ecosystem health, water supply and quality, food production. The mission of GAW reduce environmental risks and support environmental conventions. Strengthen prediction of climate, weather and air quality. Contribute to scientific assessments in support of environmental policy. through Maintain and apply global, long-term observations quality assurance and quality control. User driven products and services.

4 Status for GAW as evaluated by the the five «strategic thrusts» as defined in WMO Strategic Plan Improving service quality and service delivery 2. Advancing scientific research and applications development and implementation of technologies 3. Strengthen capacity building 4. Build and enhance partnerships and cooperation 5. Strengthen good governance

5 ADVANCE RESEARCH AND IMPROVE SERVICES GAW GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment (GURME) 23 megacities ( 10 mill) in 2013, 37 in 2025

6 ADVANCE RESEARCH AND IMPROVE SERVICES

7 MACC2 surface ozone forecasts 19 March UTC (+108h)

8 ADVANCE RESEARCH AND IMPROVE SERVICES Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 7/2011

9 Source of uncertainty (%) in climate projections for 1 st, 4 th and 9 th decade into future. (Hawkins and Sutton, 2009)

10 ADVANCE RESEARCH AND IMPROVE SERVICES German Meteorological Service Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory SO 2 Zeitreihen an verschiedenen GAW-Stationen Kosetice (Tschechische Republik) Leba (Polen) Zoseni (Lettland) MOHp SO2 (ppb) Jungfraujoch (Schweiz) Zugspitze Zeppelinfjellet (Norwegen) SAG precipitation figure 10

11 Reis et al., 2012

12

13 ADVANCE RESEARCH AND IMPROVE SERVICES Stratospheric ozone recovery Geoengineering? IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7

14 TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION

15 Service delivery

16 Status for GAW as evaluated by the the five «strategic thrusts» as defined in WMO Strategic Plan Improving service quality and service delivery 2. Advancing scientific research and applications development and implementation of technologies 3. Strengthen capacity building 4. Build and enhance partnerships and cooperation 5. Strengthen good governance

17 GAW-CH International Programme WCC O 3, CO, CH 4, CO 2 Empa Dübendorf QA/SAC Switzerland Empa Dübendorf WORCC WRC-SRS WRC-IRS EUVC PMOD/WRC Davos GAWSIS GAW Strategic Plan WMO Support to Global Stations Kenya, Indonesia Jungfraujoch

18 German Contributions to GAW Global Station Neumayer (AWI) WCC O 3 -Sondes (FZJ) MOZAIC (FZJ) CARIBIC (MPI-CH) QA/SAC-D (UBA) WCC N 2 O (KIT) RDCC-E (DWD) Regional Station Neuglobsow (UBA) WCC Aerosol Physics (IfT) CCL H 2 (MPI-BGC) WDC-RSAT (DLR) WCC VOC (KIT) Regional Station Schauinsland (UBA) FEHP 04/2011 GAWTEC (UBA+BAY) Global Station Zugspitze/ Hohenpeißenberg (UBA+DWD)

19 Status for GAW as evaluated by the the five «strategic thrusts» as defined in WMO Strategic Plan Improving service quality and service delivery 2. Advancing scientific research and applications development and implementation of technologies 3. Strengthen capacity building 4. Build and enhance partnerships and cooperation 5. Strengthen good governance

20

21 Way forward for GAW seen against current and new priorities in WMO Strategic Plan «Science for service» 1.Disaster risk reduction focus 2.Global integrated polar prediction system (GIPPS) incl GCW 3.Megacities 4.Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) 5.WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS)

22 DRR Distribution of number of extreme events, fatalities, total and insured losses in respect to the different groups of natural perils.

23 Contributions from European countries to Arctic pollution (2006) SLCF met.no/emep CTM model calculations with ECMWF met.data GIPPS 31% 12% Primary PM2.5 18% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 9% 9% RU NO FI ATL SE GB PL FR NOS DE Rest 38% 19% Secondary inorganic aerosols: SO 4, NO 3, NH 4 4% 4% 2% 5% 9% 2% 4% 5% 8% Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

24 MEGACITIES Urbanization prospects in 2050 Percentage of urban population Half of world s population already lives in urban areas Between 2011 and 2050 population to increase from 7 to over 9 billion Urban population to increase from 3.6 to 6.2 billion, 66% of total population Most urban population growth to occur in the less developed regions The number of megacities ( 10 million) is currently 23 and is expected to reach 37 in Adapted from United Nations 2012

25 25

26 WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM (WIGOS) Background: WMO Global Observing Systems 1. Global Observing Systems (WWW/GOS) RBSN, RBCN (>10,000 stations,1,000 upper-air) AMDAR (39754/day) Ship & Marine obs (30417/day) Surface-based remote sensing Meso-scale networks Space-based subsystem of GOS 2. Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) 3. WMO Hydrological Observations, including WHYCOS 4. Global Cryosphere Watch: CryoNet PLUS: WMO contributions to Co-sponsored Observing Systems GCOS, GOOS, GTOS

27 WIGOS Initiative WMO Cg-15/16 decision EC-WG on WIGOS since 2007 ICG-WIGOS since 2011 Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present Day Early 2000s? Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Weather Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Sulphate Aerosol Land Surface Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Carbon Cycle Land Surface Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Carbon Cycle Dynamic Vegetation Climate Variability Climate Change Need an Integrated Global Observing System meet all requirements Atmospheric Chemistry

28 WIS Vision IRI, Hadley Centre, and other climate research centres; Universities; Regional Climate Centres (CIIFEN, etc.) World Radiation Centre Regional Instrument Centres NC/ DCPC NC International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP, FAO.. ) DCPC NC NC/ DCPC GAW World Data Centres GCOS Data Centres Global Run-off Data Centre Global Precip. Climatology Centre NC Commercial Service Providers NC NC DCPC GISC GISC GISC GISC GISC DCPC NC WMO World Data Centres International Projects (e.g. GMES HALO) internet February 24, 2005 NC World Meteorological Organization NC Satellite Dissemination (IGDDS, RETIM, Satellite etc) Two-Way Systems NC NC Real-time push On-demand pull

29 Points in a GAW strategy USER DRIVEN PRODUCTS: AQ, deposition, UV, dust incl volcanic ash, climate, NWP incl seasonal weather forecasts, marine input TOWARDS ONE CHAIN : Research driven and operational observations, model development and application, and services CORE GAW ACTIVITY: Doing Good Observations, not only collecting others POLICY FACILITATION: AQ, CLRTAP, GFCS, IPCC, new global/regional alliances, and FEWER PARALLEL PROCESSES in the technical underpinning of policies DATA STEWARDSHIP. WIS (WIGOS). User-data provider interaction FOSTER COUNTRY CONTRIBUTIONS to research, infrastructure, education, institutional building are essential Management structure; community of practise

30 Thank you for the attention