New Era & Long Term Strategy for Climate Change in China

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1 New Era & Long Term Strategy for Climate Change in China Understanding how can climate actions be integrated into national development plan from an interlinkage perspective? CHAI Qimin

2 1 XI s Thoughts on Global Climate Governance We Have Made Notable Progress in Building An Ecological Civilization Taking a driving seat in international cooperation to respond to climate change, China has become an important PARTICIPANT, CONTRIBUTOR and TORCHBEARER in the global endeavor for ecological civilization.

3 2 Two-stage Development Plan for China Entrance into A New Era Realize the Chinese Dream of National Rejuvenation In the First Stage from 2020 to 2035 We will build on the foundation created by the moderately prosperous society with a further 15 years of hard work to see that socialist modernization is basically realized. There is a fundamental improvement in the environment; the goal of building a Beautiful China is basically attained In the Second Stage from 2035 to 2050 We will, building on having basically achieved modernization, work hard for a further 15 years and develop China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful. New heights are reached in every dimension of material, political, cultural and ethical, social, and ecological advancement Two Centenary Goals The two centenary goals are to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by the time the Communist Party of China marks its centenary and to build China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious by the time the People s Republic of China celebrates its centenary.

4 3 Philosophy of Ecological Civilization in New Era The modernization that we pursue is one characterized by harmonious coexistence between man and nature. Provide More Quality Ecological Goods Creating More Material & Cultural Wealth $ a beautiful environment a better life What we now face is the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people s ever-growing needs for a better life.

5 4 Five Principles: A New Vision for Development New Development INNOVATIVE Big Five COORDINATED GREEN OPEN SHARING We must continue the Beautiful China Initiative to create good working and living environments for our people and play our part in ensuring Global Ecological Security Establish a legal and policy framework that promotes green production and consumption Promote a sound economic structure that facilitates green, low-carbon, and circular development Create a market-based system for green technology innovation, and develop green finance Promote a revolution in energy production and consumption, and build an energy sector that is clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient Encourage simple, moderate, green, and low-carbon ways of life

6 5 Development & Reform as Top Priority in Governance Supply-side Structural Reform: to cut overcapacity, reduce excess inventory, deleverage, lower costs, and strengthen areas of weakness, and work to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand by improving the allocation of available resources and increasing high-quality supply. Advanced Manufacturing 2025 (Internet+): to prioritize innovation in key generic technologies, cutting-edge frontier technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technologies, and promote further integration of the internet, big data, and artificial intelligence with the real economy. Rural Vitalization Strategy (Urbanization & Inverse Urbanization): to put in place sound systems, mechanisms, and policies for promoting integrated urban-rural development, and speed up the modernization of agriculture and rural areas.

7 6 Energy Revolution Planning to Mid-Century A Modern Energy System: Clean, Low-carbon, Safe and Efficient Achieving major technical advance in energy resources, structures and forms to get green, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. Energy business is at the tipping point and low-carbon energy becomes one of the primary energy resources. Achieving or nearing peak of fossil energy consumption by system and policy reform, and market liberalization. Economic patterns, energy system and consumption style change dramatically to achieve comprehensive green and low-carbon energy. Non-fossil fuels become the primary energy. Achieving zero-carbon at the end of the century.

8 7 Community with A Shared Future for Mankind We will get actively involved in global environmental governance and Fulfill Our Commitments on emissions reduction We have jointly pursued the Belt and Road Initiative, initiated the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, set up the Silk Road Fund, and hosted the First Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation Lasting Peace Clean Beautiful Universal Security Open Inclusive Common Prosperity

9 8 New Scenarios for Modeling Long Term Strategy The acceleration of China s modernization process has led to changes in the assumptions of the previous economic and social development. The connotation of China s modernization is more rich, especially the ecological civilization and green development are elevated to an unprecedented level of importance. The China s modernization is more open, and taking new and greater contributions for mankind as the China s abiding mission. Be in line with the Mission to build a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind Be consistent with the Initiative to build a Beautiful China Be adapted to the Reform of Transition to a Highquality Development

10 9 China s Mid-Century Pathway Study 19th National Congress of CPC two-step goals (2035, 2050) Build ecological civilization Community of human destiny Global governance Innovation of growth pattern and development pathway SDG Lead international cooperation in climate change Major participant, contributor and leader in global ecological civilization construction Multi-target coordination Low carbon development transition Treat carbon emission capacity resource as a special production input Demographic, urbanization strategy and influence Economy, Society New engine, format and tendency for economy Change and implications of consumption and production pattern Trend, influence of tech innovation Trend, influence of infrastructure investment International political, economic and climate situation and China s positioning Major strategic issues Short, medium, long-term target Production, consumption, investment, management behavior Tech roadmap Cost, investment Institution, policy market, administration, persuasion and information (Major strategic areas Energy (supply, industry, building, transport) Climate (CO2. non- CO2) Other sustainable development (environment, employment)

11 1 0 New Vision, New Tools Target Oriented Scenarios: RCPs, Concentrations, Temperature, NDC, etc. Focusing on additional efforts or impact compared with reference Development Oriented Scenarios: Level and Pattern of Development, Demand, etc. Focusing on the quality of development, imaging of future society and lift Modelling Linear Extension of Current Situation Level of degree (penetration of technology, share of industry..) Modelling Radical Change Social formation, Value judgement, Ethic, New technology, New lifestyle Statistical System Based Data Statistical yearbook, Energy balance, I/O, Random sample data, etc. New Data, Big Data Decentralized data, Private data, All data, correlation instead of causal relationship

12 1 1 New-era Development Pathways (NDPs) Develop Historical Data Dashboard and Yearly Update (CAIT/IEA: Climate, Energy, Social-economic, Environment, national/regional, technology, policy, etc. ) Development of Representative Pathways (Scenario definition/storyline, key assumptions) Harmonize Base Year Data And Key Assumptions (historical trends/progress, base year data calibration) New-era Development Pathways (NDPs) A three-dimension matrix Four representative NDP storylines Internally consistent assumptions on key elements such as demographics, economics, technology and other development indicators

13 1 2 Modelling Framework on CLIMATE : Consortium for Long-term Integrated Modelling Analytical Tools on Economy, Energy and Environment Neural network Socialeconomic Deeplearning Big data Consumption and Investment behaviour Energy (incl. energy related and and processes CO2 emissions) AFOLU Non CO2, pollutants Agent model Technology Energy supply (Incl. Resources) Agriculture (CAPRI) Learning Urbanization model Activity and energy consumption CGE (EPPA China, SICGE ) Energy System model (PECE, China TIMES) Power (Incl. Dispatch) Macro economic growth model Macro social economic data Feedback of economy system (GDP, Employment, etc.) Activity and demand Sector specific model LULUCF/non CO2 cost curve GAINS Energy service demand model Industry Building Transportation Regional/City level model Activity for agricultural sector Land use change and forestry (GLOBIOM) China s positioning International Assumptions Integrated Analysis Global Impact Platform for Multi modeling Exercises Scenarios generating On line database Harmonizing of base year data and key assumptions Multi modeling analysis Uncertainty analysis IAMs BRIAM/IAMC (NCSC) WEM (IEA) GCAM (PNNL) POLES (JRC) REMIND (PIK) IMAGE (PBL) MESSAGE (IIASA) WITCH (CMCC)

14 1 3 New Parameters for Modeling Long Term Strategy Grade II index Unit Target value Economic Modernization Social Modernization Ecological Modernization Human Modernization 1.1 Per capita GDP U.S. dollar.s. d 1.2 GDP proportion of R&D spending % DP 1.3 Number of patent authorization per 10 billion yuan of GDP Synthesis index of scientific and technological progress % nt 1.5 GDP proportion of value added of service sector % dd 1.6 Agricultural mechanization level Myriawatt / hectare / 1.7 GDP proportion of total volume of foreign trade % DP 1.8 Income per capita urban per capita disposable income Yuan uann Rural per capita net income Yuan uanin Urban Engel's coefficient % rb 1.9 Engel's coefficient Rural Engel's coefficient % ur 2.1 Urbanization ratio % ba 2.2 Basic social security coverage % Income ratio of urban and rural residents esi 2.4 Number of civil societies owned per 10 thousand persons Number of public transportation owned per 10 thousand people in urban areas mb 2.6 number of community facilities owned per 10 thousand persons e Urban per capita living space M 2 rb 2.7 per capita living space Rural per capita living space M 2 ur 2.8 registered urban unemployment rate % e 3.1 Proportion of days with good air quality % ro 3.2 Discharge standard meeting rate of industrial wastewater % Decontamination rate of urban refuse % Per Unit GDP Energy Consumption Tce/ten thousand yuan ten 3.5 GDP proportion of Comprehensive Utilization product value for "three wastes" % h 3.6 urban green coverage rate % rb 4.1 the population proportion of people with Junior college diploma or higher % he 4.2Households proportion of expenditure on recreational activities, education and cultural service % se Urban areas rba 4.3 Number of TV owned per 100 households Rural areas ura 4.4 Number of cellphone owned per 100 urban households mbe 4.5 Number of Internet broadband households per 1000 persons Number of doctors per 1000 Persons per 4.7 Average life expectancy Years old ea

15 1 4 Take Away Implication for Modeling 1. The new two stage development strategy to Mid century in China has led to changes in the assumptions of the previous economic and social parameters, which also have deep effects on China s LEDS under Paris Agreement. 2. The Beautiful China Initiative put the preventing and controlling pollution as one of the top three battles (with forestalling and defusing major risks, carrying out targeted poverty alleviation) towards the moderately prosperous society by 2020, and also a big role among the five sphere integrated plan to basically realized modernization by 2035, which will definitely have enormously influential cobenefits on climate change governance. 3. The assessment of Chinese approach to the global climate governance, Green Belt and Road Initiative over the decades of time scales are valued. How to model the cutting-edge frontier and disruptive technologies? How to model the radical transformation of economy and society? Next generation model - AI with big data and deep learning?

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