Theme 3 Adaptive Thinking and Committing to Action to Prepare for the Future

Transcription

1 Theme 3 Adaptive Thinking and Committing to Action to Prepare for the Future

2 Module 12 Adaptive Management and Evaluation

3 Learning objectives After completing this module, you will be able to: 1. Describe the principles of adaptive management and summarize how watershed management can respond to anticipated and unanticipated uncertainties. 2. Explain the role of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and key performance indicators and describe how to implement appropriate M&E systems for adaptive watersheds.

4 Key questions What is adaptive management? Why is it necessary? What are the key elements of adaptive management? How is adaptive management implemented? How can we develop key performance indicators (KPIs), including long term and near term? How can we develop effective M&E systems?

5 Rationale for adaptive systems Based on Holling, 1978 Brought together principles of ecology, sociology and economics in the context of environmental management and policies. Our knowledge of a system is often surpassed by our ignorance of aspects of it; plan for uncertainty. Humans have dealt with uncertainty through trial and error. Ecological systems demonstrate a resilience that has a counterpart in institutional and other systems. Complex systems (including watersheds) comprise multiple variables that shift and move. Management policies often try and minimize this variability, but must instead understand and adapt with them.

6 Adaptive management Establishing goals and responsibilities Plan Do Implementing key actions based on goals Revise actions for maximum impact Correct Check Monitor and review impacts to understand what s working

7 Cycle of strategic adaptive management

8 Adaptive ecosystem-based management in watersheds Source: Adapted from Roy, Barr and Venema, 2011

9 Visioning your watershed of the future Adaptive watershed management brings together ecological, social, hydrologic, climatic, economic and other priorities to develop management systems. Fisheries Recreation Sanitation and Waste Agriculture Irrigation Drought Local bioenergy Source: IISD, 2010

10 Piloting portfolio of ecosystem initiatives Implementation stage of strategic adaptive ecosystem management Manager pilots ecosystem initiatives aimed at achieving a shared long-term outcome

11 Need for formal review (after Holling 1978) 1. Variability of ecological systems provides a selfmonitoring system that maintains resilience. 2. Regular review, even when the program is performing well, and the use of well-designed pilots throughout the life of the program to test assumptions related to performance, can help address emerging issues and trigger important adjustments for better impact. 3. Monitoring the wrong variable can falsely indicate no change even when drastic change is imminent. 4. Impacts may not be gradual; they may appear abruptly due to climate, human, or other drivers or pressures. 5. Existing impact assessment methods (e.g., cost-benefit analysis, input output, cross-impact matrices, linear models, discounting) do not recognize importance of these interactions.

12 Formalize review systems Specified time period identified in planning stages Annual to 5-year reviews usually recommended Monitoring key performance indicators (KPIs) may indicate shorter time interval needed to respond to changing conditions When performance of an initiative is sensitive to a specific input parameter or if impacts are potentially serious but uncertain, KPIs can indicate key times for additional review. Stakeholder feedback, including new scientific information

13 Key performance indicators (KPIs) KPIs are the primary tool during this stage Different levels and time scales: Process; Outcomes, near-term/long-term; Impact on ecosystem, community and resilience KPIs

14 Anatomy of a KPI Anatomy of a KPI units Title and axis label Target data legend source Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-EUROPE, GEO Data portal: Compiles from Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) data)

15 Key characteristics of a KPI SMART indicators Specific: Target a specific area of improvement Measurable: Quantify/qualify progress Achievable: Results must be possible in time and resources available Responsible: Specify who will actually do it Time-bound: Specify when the results can be achieved.

16 Near-term KPIs Activity-based outputs to measure completion of tasks and their results Early gauge of whether hypothesis upon which the initiative is based was correct Can the actions deliver a positive ecosystem benefit? Outputs (knowledge generated or services delivered) Activities (ecosystem management and adaptation projects) Ecosystem initiative results show the impact of water retention on fish population and water availability KPI: % increase in downstream fish population Target: 20% Development of water retention structures to improve fish habitat and mitigate flood damage in the region. KPI: Progress in developing small dams Target: Completed on schedule and budget

17 Long-term KPIs Measure performance of actions based on impacts, priorities and effectiveness as agreed-upon by stakeholders. Results Chain Long-term outcomes (change in state of society, economy, environment) Intermediate outcomes (increased capacity, awareness, access, etc.) Ecosystem Initiative #1 Water retention pilot initiative Improved water access for irrigation during dry seasons, flood damage mitigation and improved fisheries KPI: Flood damage mitigated downstream; total fish population Target: 20% increase in fish population Awareness among regional land use managers, watershed managers and communities about the relationship between water storage, floods/drought and community resilience. KPI: # of planners attending planning sessions Target: Specific # of influential roles/people identified in the impact strategy)

18 Selecting your KPIs Aim to measure your strategic objectives Aim for a manageable number of KPIs Choose SMART KPIs, including a mix of near-term, long-term, process, ecological, social, etc. Look for recurrent and consistent patterns Select KPIs based on available data, and also inputs from key stakeholders to ensure the most legitimate, evidence-oriented and culturally appropriate measurement. Ensure inclusion of gender-responsive KPIs, as well as those representing the needs of vulnerable groups

19 Long-term KPIs Results Chain Ultimate Outcomes (change in state of environment, society, economy) Ecosystem Initiative #1 Spillway Pilot Initiative Restoration of salmon population and hydropower that can meet demand KPI: Total salmon population Target: 20% above baseline counts within 5 years Ecosystem Initiative #2 Fish Ladder Pilot Initiative Intermediate Outcomes (new/improved policy or practice) Intermediate Outcomes (increased awareness, capacity or access) Outputs (knowledge generated or services delivered) Activities (ecosystem management projects) More frequent spillway operation KPI: Total spillway operation time Target: X hours more per month Awareness among hydropower policy-makers that increased spillway operation is a feasible means to increase salmon population KPI: # of hydropower planners and policy-makers attending presentation on results of spillway experiments Target: (this target should include the specific names of influential persons identified in the impact strategy) Ecosystem initiative results showing the impact of spillway operation on salmon population KPI: % increase in downstream salmon population Target: 20% Ecosystem initiative to test the impact of increased spillway operation on salmon population (including salmon population and stream flow monitoring) KPI: Progress toward completion of ecosystem experiment Target: Completed on schedule Permanent increase in fish ladder capacity KPI: salmon count immediately downstream of ladder Target: X% of upstream count Awareness among hydropower policy-makers that improved fish ladder technology can increase salmon population KPI: # of hydropower planners and policy-makers attending presentation on results of fish ladder experiments Target: (this target should include the specific names of influential persons identified in the impact strategy) Ecosystem initiative results showing the impact of fish ladder operation on salmon population KPI: % increase in downstream salmon population Target: 20% Ecosystem initiative to test the impact of improved fish ladder design on salmon population (including salmon population and stream flow monitoring) KPI: Progress toward completion of ecosystem experiment Target: Completed on schedule

20 Activity: KPIs - Part I (20 min) Based on your draft watershed plan and priorities, develop 10 illustrative KPIs, including actions, and social, economic and environmental impact indicators. Once you have 10, test these against the SMART criteria KPIs # of small check dams built (#) (Act.) Outputs/actions Fish population increased (#) (Env.) Fisheries-based economic growth ($/year) (Econ.) Volume of flood-water retained (m 3 ) (Env.) Short/long-term outcomes Short/long-term outcomes Short-term outcomes # of irrigable acres increased (Econ.) Short/long-term outcomes # of people with better access to water (disaggregate by gender and community) (Soc.) Improved resilience to floods and drought (Soc.) Long-term outcome Ultimate outcome

21 Activity: KPIs - Part II KPIs Type SMART? # of small check dams built (#) (Act.) Outputs/action s Fish population increased (#) (Env.) Fisheries-based economic growth ($/year) (Econ.) Volume of flood-water retained (m 3 ) (Env.) Short/longterm outcomes Short/longterm outcomes Short-term outcomes # of irrigable acres increased (Econ.) Short/longterm outcomes # of people with better access to water (disaggregate by gender and community) (Soc.) Improved resilience to floods and drought (Soc.) Long-term outcome Ultimate outcome

22 Monitoring, evaluation and reporting Recognize the role of monitoring and reporting in the development and implementation of KPIs, and the adaptive watershed.

23 Monitoring, evaluation and reporting Monitoring: Systematic process of observation. Follows a course of activities, comparing what happens with what was expected. Observes delivery of ecosystem services and that progress is made towards meeting societal goals Evaluation: Assesses achievement against preset criteria. Evaluation of an EM plan determines extent to which ecosystem service levels meet intended purposes; identifies lessons learned for subsequent phases of EM Reporting: The process of regular sharing of information with project stakeholders and the public to ensure participation, transparency, accountability and innovation.

24 Developing effective monitoring and evaluation systems Begin by reviewing the high-level KPIs appropriate for your adaptive watershed plan. Identify primary users of evaluation, including those most affected by actions, people whose perception will control whether or not evaluation is used to guide evolution of our EM plan Identify existing monitoring systems available in your region. Compile ecological, social and economic measures that could help with the completion of your KPIs Prioritize component parameters to understand how systems are functioning, and how they respond to development, climate and other pressures.

25 Climate-hydrologic monitoring systems

26 A role for citizen science Citizen science includes the collection and analysis of data by members of the general public, typically as part of a collaborative project with professional scientists. Citizen Science is gaining popularity in different parts of the world, particularly in the field of weather and water-related monitoring.

27 Integrated evaluation Along with information and data on climate, land and water systems, incorporate key information and data related to KPIs selected for the health of the watershed. E.g., for community water access, you need to think about access data (e.g. time travelled to get water, or hours of running water/day)

28 Integrated evaluation Summarizing available data/info Integrated Evaluation Systems Evaluation Summary and Reporting Citizen science efforts with formal protocols First-hand monitoring systems Monitoring protocols for all desired elements (the what, when, how, and who of monitoring systems) KPIs selected for process and outcomes Stakeholder priorities and requirements

29 Stakeholder feedback Each TAW initiative should have an expert team that reviews feedback and develops ways to respond. Evaluation should incorporate sound data, but also views of key stakeholders to ensure that both qualitative and quantitative information are captured. Aggregated stakeholder feedback can tell an important story about an emerging issue or an unintended consequence of an initiative.

30 Activity: monitoring and evaluation (20 min) 1. Looking back at the illustrative KPIs you developed for your watershed, can you link them clearly to broader adaptive watershed priorities? 2. Are all the primary users represented in your evaluation? Where are the gaps? (e.g., women s use of local fisheries not included) 3. Identify key/potential sources of data for these KPIs; specify quantitative (incl. analytical) and qualitative (deliberative) approaches 4. Set priorities, areas and frequency of monitoring.

31 Final discussion points 1. Your monitoring plan is a key tool to evaluate your watershed adaptive plan and change course as necessary. 2. Ensure that your KPIs and monitoring take into account climate-related vulnerabilities as well as women and Indigenous community needs. 3. Your KPIs and monitoring systems should be adaptive and can change with changing priorities. 4. Consider how evaluations will be reported to different stakeholders. There is a range of reporting mechanisms including data portal, websites, published report cards and meetings.