Study on Regional Economic Growth Led Industrial Development in South Xinjiang Mei Li1, a, Xiaoling Zhu2, b 12

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1 nd Internatonal Conference on Economcs, Socal Scence, Arts, Educaton and Management Engneerng (ESSAEME 016) Study on Regonal Economc Growth Led Industral Development n South Xnjang Me L1, a, Xaolng Zhu, b 1 College of Economcs and Management, Tarm Unversty, Alar, XnJang, a emal, b emal Keywords: South Xnjang; Regonal Economy; Urbanzaton; Industralzaton Abstract. From the current stuaton of economc development n the southern border regon, due to be affected by geography, clmate, hstory and many other factors, per capta economc level of the regon has been n southern Chna's per capta below the level, and per capta levels n North of there s also a large gap. In order to explore a breakthrough n economc development n southern regons, the author of ths artcle on the mpact of the ndustral structure of the economy has been explored. The thess s dvded nto four parts, the frst part of the preface to the study and research methods are descrbed n the second part analyzes the ndustral development of three southern states, the thrd part of the use of gray correlaton model of ndustral and economc power were analyzed, the fourth model was constructed to predct the development of the ndustral economy, and the development of predcton were summarzed; ffth segment on the development of ndustry n the southern border regon a number of recommendatons, the sxth part of the paper are summarzed. Wth a vew to mprove references and suggestons for the future development of the southern and better development of the southern ndustral economy. Therefore, to dscuss constrants Three South urbanzaton development, and propose approprate countermeasures for speedng up the development process of urbanzaton n the regon, to ensure the stablty and development of border areas are of great practcal sgnfcance. Introducton Introducton: Ths paper Nanjang three states, namely Hotan, Kash Prefecture and the Krgz Autonomous Prefecture (herenafter referred to as g state) as the research object, the man source of data "Xnjang Statstcal Yearbook," the gray related degree method the ndustral economy dynamc analyss and evaluaton; and buld predctve models to forecast and analyze the development of Xnjang Industral Development Stuaton of the Three States of the Southern Xnjang Snce the mplementaton of the western development strategy, ndustral economy Xnjang regon has been greatly mproved, but the overall growth rate as compared to other provnces n terms of relatvely slow, there s a certan gap. At the same tme, because of the South Xnjang geography, hstory, natural and socal aspects, the level of ndustral and economc development Three South overall s stll relatvely low, compared wth the average for the whole of Xnjang there s a bg gap. We can see that three southern states the proporton of three ndustres between 004 and 011 are relatvely stable, relatvely small changes n the prmary ndustry, secondary ndustry are on the rse, the tertary ndustry declned. Proporton of prmary ndustry Three South has always accounted for more than 40%, whch the whole of Xnjang and 10% of ndustral producton s stll manly n the frst ndustry-based than the frst, the three states, three states - because ndustry underdevelopment and the slow development of the tertary ndustry and so ncreased the dependence of agrcultural development. At present, compared wth the northern regon, the northern has entered the early ndustralzaton of development, whle the southern border s stll n the pre-ndustral stage of development. In fact, the level of ndustralzaton and urbanzaton development level has great 016. The authors - Publshed by Atlants Press 93

2 relevance, because mprovng ndustral development level can be a good drve to mprove the level of urbanzaton development, but three southern states to ndustralzaton has been a very backward, causng the level of urbanzaton development n the southern border regon can not be ncreased. Accordng to statstcs, by the end of 011, the three southern states of the Krgz Autonomous Prefecture of urbanzaton rate was 58.5%, the urbanzaton rate was 3.9% n Hotan, Kashgar urbanzaton rate was 35.4%, and Xnjang 43.5% urbanzaton rate of development there s a bg gap. In ths paper, the use of generalzed gray ncdence model to analyze economc growth, snce the model can be ntutve judgments of ts close tes based on the geometrc sequence acquantance of the curve, so that can be a bg curve n case we can determne the degree of acquantance assocaton a great degree, otherwse small. Generalzed Grey Relatonal whch were gray absolute, relatve and overall connecton degree. Sequence from each sequence, etc., can be calculated drectly as the startng pont of the collar. Intalzaton formula can be expressed as: X0 = [X (1) -X (1), X () -X (1),..., X (T) -X (1)] ( = 0,1,,3) Where 0 represents the reference sequence area GDP; 1,,3 represents the added value of three ndustres; T = 1, = 0,1,,3 seek S, S0 and S-S0.,then S = x ( t) + x ( T ) S0 = x0 ( t) + x0 ( T ) 0 0 S-S0 = [ x ( t) x0 ( t)] + [ x ( T ) x0 ( T )] s0 + s Obtaned Gray Correlaton ε0 ( = 0,1,,3) = s0 + s + s s0 The respectve number of ntalzaton parameters n accordance wth the control column meanng ntalzaton equaton can be expressed as: X (1) X () X ( T ) X ' = ( ),... )( = 0,1,,3) x (1) x (1) x (1) S ' = [ x x '( T ) S0' = [ x0 x0 '( T ) 0 0 S '-S0 ' = - [ x - x0 ] - [ x '(T) + x0 '(T)] s0' + s ' Obtaned Gray Correlaton γ0 ( = 0,1,,3) = s0' + s ' + s ' s0' Fnally Grey Synthetc Degree of Grey overall connecton degree. ρ0 = θε0 + (1-θ) γ0, (= 0,1,,3, under normal crcumstances, θ = 1/, Here, θ takes 1/. Accordng to our Xnjang Statstcal Yearbook data, we calculated the years 000 to 001 Three South Xnjang and three ndustral added value of the three factors assocated wth the table of GDP (Table 1 and Table ) Table 1 Gray Correlaton three southern states of the three ndustres Area Kash Wada Kezhou absolute Renatve Total

3 Table Grey Correlaton Three South Xnjang and comprehensve three ndustres Area Xnjang 3 Area absolute Renatve Total G ray Correlaton Table 1 three southern states of the three ndustres Kashgar Hotan regon Kezhou A secondary ndustry and tertary ndustres ndustry ndustry a secondary ndustry and tertary ndustres ndustry a secondary ndustry and tertary ndustres Absolutely Relatve Comprehensve Grey Correlaton Table Three South Xnjang and comprehensve three ndustres Areas of three states Industry Category prmary ndustry secondary ndustry and tertary ndustres ndustry a secondary ndustry and tertary ndustres absolutely 0.73 Relatve Composte Index From Fgure we can see that the second ndustry assocaton of Xnjang GDP and s the largest, followed by the tertary ndustry, and fnally the prmary sector. Ths makes t possble that the ndustral structure of Xnjang ndustry as the leadng force n the second degree of relevance of GDP the second largest ndustry n Xnjang, Xnjang's economc growth stmulatng effect s greatest. The assocate degree from the total value of the tertary ndustry and producton n Fgure III Three South s the largest, followed by the prmary ndustry, secondary ndustry fnally. Thus, you can learn three southern states manly n the tertary ndustry as the leadng, Xnjang and the development of secondary ndustry average n terms of relatvely backward, pullng effect on the economy s not obvous. Three South Xnjang Industral Economc Development Forecastng Model In order to do well on the ndustry forecast, the author constructed the gray dynamc forecastng model, manly based on GM (1,1) model of gray system theory s bult. Because the predcton model conssts of a sngle varable frst-order dfferental equatons, when wll ths model fttng and predcton for a domnant factor when complex systems, can be a good development trend and predct the varaton of the domnant factors. Therefore, n the ndustral and economc development of the southern states of the three judges, the author also uses gray system GM (1,1) forecastng model to predct the dynamc. Frst, we need to buld predctve models of before, we need to do to verfy the model quas smoothness and quas exponentally: (1) quas-smooth test, the orgnal seres Y (0) (k) accumulatng derved a summng operator Y (1) (k), to test the orgnal seres Y (0) of the equaton s expressed as: ρ ( k) = Y (0) (k) / Y (1) (k -1), for ρ (k) values are calculated, f k> 3, ρ (k) <0.5, then the quas-smooth condtons are met, and vce versa not elgble. () quas-exponental test, the formula of specfc tests s expressed as: σ (1) (k) = Y (1) (k) / Y (1) (k-1), for σ (1) (k) values are calculated, f k> 3, σ (1) (k) [1,1.5], δ <0.5, n lne wth the quas-exponental, not vce versa accord. Then, when two or more test steps are passed, we also need to examne the accuracy of the model, and the applcable condtons of the model study, f the model can be used as short-term or long-term forecast, the model can be used predcton: 95

4 (1) test the model's accuracy. Resdual test method can use the method of model accuracy tests, generally speakng, the relatve valuaton model resdual error s less than 5%, when dfferent ssues have dfferent consderatons 10%, gven the ecologcal ndcators when the value of a large gap, so the average s less than 10% relatve error of the model selected n ths resdual valuaton, the detecton accuracy of the model n lne. () model applcable condtons nvestgated. If the development of the model coeffcent s less than 0.3, then the model as a long term forecastng model; f the development of the model coeffcents greater than 0.3 less than or equal to 0.5, the change only as a short-term forecastng model based on the judgment, but as a long-term forecast We need to be careful; f the development of the model coeffcents greater than 0.5 less than or equal to 0.8, then the short-term forecast also need to be very cautous. By "Xnjang Statstcal Yearbook" data, construct and gray assocaton model and gray predcton model for the relatonshp between the three ndustral structure and the GDP of Xnjang and three southern states to analyze and predct, we summed up the followng two conclusons: (1) the overall ndustral and economc development Three South s stll relatvely backward, stll agrculture-led economy. Three southern states wth 30 percent of Xnjang's populaton and 8% of the land area of Xnjang to create only 9 percent of gross economc output of Xnjang. Self-development capacty s weak, low level of economc development n Xnjang and the average there s a bg gap, plus modernzaton, ndustralzaton and urbanzaton are relatvely slow development of agrculture, further hampered economc growth n southern Xnjang. () the end of the second ndustry n Southern stmulatng effect on economc growth, ndustral development has lagged behnd the prmary ndustry, the tertary ndustry also contrbuted to economc growth s greater than the secondary ndustry and the tertary ndustry accounted relatvely hgh wrte. Found manly n southern commerce and other tradtonal servces and publc servces as the man source of economc development, but also the need to strengthen the development of the secondary ndustry, the development of modern agrculture also needs to accelerate. Three South Xnjang Future Industral Development Countermeasures and Suggestons In order to better promote the ncreased role of the secondary ndustry n the economy, the southern border regon should ncrease efforts to develop ndustry and accelerate the development of the southern border regon nto the mddle perod of ndustralzaton. Therefore, we can use the resources of frut and cotton n southern Xnjang regon has the resources, efforts to develop frut-based processng ndustry and the textle ndustry, the use of bounteous land area, the ntroducton of foregn enterprses to develop producton and assembly processng ndustres. In order to better promote the modernzaton of agrculture and anmal husbandry development, and nnovaton have the characterstcs of southern agrculture, therefore, should be ntroduced n Southern agrcultural modernzaton technologes, to promote the development of agrcultural ndustralzaton, the southern border regon to mprove water conservancy, roads and other facltes nfrastructure, focusng on the development of agrculture, farmng and hortculture and the lke. Southern Xnjang regon accounts for about 30% of the populaton, but the majorty of the rural populaton, the poor are concentrated. Thus, the southern border regon should speed up the mgraton of the rural populaton, promotng the constructon of new urbanzaton. For example, the transformaton of old housng, constructon of affordable housng, accelerate the constructon of housng for low-ncome people to protect, mprove the urban nfrastructure and publc servce facltes constructon, the gude of the rural populaton to mgrate to small towns, so that workforce s concentrated n the ctes and towns, promote secondary ndustry development, constructon have specal southern small towns lke. In order to better develop the southern border regon of the tertary ndustry, the southern border regon should be to mprove the qualty of the tertary ndustry based, accelerate the development of modern servce ndustry. For example, the southern border regon can rely on the southern border of 96

5 the unque natural scenery, ethnc customs, hstorcal and cultural landscape of jade and other resources, the development of the toursm sector n Southern culture, mprove communty health, culture and entertanment, domestc cleanng, chldcare and penson qualty of food dstrbuton and other servces. Concluson An Emprcal Analyss by Southern Xnjang Industral Structure made to the development of ndustry and the ndustral structure and the current stuaton around the state Nanjang an n-depth understandng, we can see that the evoluton of the ndustral structure has a great contrbuton to the economc growth of the assocaton, because bt better so that the coordnated development of the regonal ndustry, a varety of ndustres and jontly promote the economc development of southern Xnjang, the southern border regon should vgorously develop modern agrculture and anmal husbandry ndustry, the development of dstnctve, promote the coordnated development of ndustralzaton and urbanzaton, mprove the modern qualty of servce. Acknowledgements Fund Project: Natonal Socal Scence Fund Project "transformaton of economc development under the background of the coordnated development of southern Xnjang Urbanzaton and Industral Research (tem number: 1XJY004) References [1] Lu Xncong. the status quo of urbanzaton Zhu Xaolng three southern states and hnder factors [J] Rural Economy and Scence, 013,04: [] Ba Xueme. regonal economc development n Chna comparatve study [M] Bejng: Chna Fnancal and Economc Publshng House, [3] Qn Chunyan. Three South Xnjang Economc Development Status and Trends [J]. Fnance & Economcs, 013 (05). [4] Yuan Xaojun, Sun Jnshan. emprcal analyss of ndustral structure and economc growth n Xnjang [J]. Commercal Tmes, 013 (11). [5] Xa Hongbao. Road urbanzaton ndustralzaton drve nnovaton and development [J]. Theory of Urban Constructon, 013 (34). [6] Wang Chenjun, Zhang Tan. Predcton based real estate development value GM (1,1) model [J]. Commercal Tmes, 010 (05). 97