Future Energy Balance and the Role of International Interconnections

Transcription

1 International Workshop on Global Energy Interconnections Future Energy Balance and the Role of International Interconnections 2016/9/8 Hiroshi Okamoto, Managing Executive Officer, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. President of TEPCO Research Institute

2 Company Profile Customers (Number of Contracts) 29 Million Annual Electricity Sales 247 TWh Power Plant Capacity 66 GW (as of FY2015 End) 1

3 Supplying Electricity to Customers (Electricity System) The electricity system is the platform that matches the power demand of customers in remote areas with power generation via transmission and distribution networks. Create (Generation) Send (Transmission and Distribution of Electricity) Use (Demand) Underground Distribution Lines Transmission Lines Transmission Lines Hydropower Plant Railroad Substation Large Solar & Wind Power Generation Large Buildings Transmission & Distribution Lines Transmission Lines Distribution Lines Service Line Thermal Power Plant Transmission Lines Transmission Lines Extra-high Voltage Substation Transmission Lines Transmission Lines Primary Substation Transmission & Distribution Lines Transmission Lines Intermediate Substation Distributing Substation Distribution Lines Pole Transformer Large Factory Utility Pole Service Line Service Line Houses Shops Underground Distribution Lines Nuclear Power Plant Hydro Power Plant Small Plant Large Factory Buildings & Mediumsized Factory Buildings & Mediumsized Factory Generation Facilities Transmission Facilities Distribution Facilities Customer Facilities 2

4 Energy Business Drivers (The 4 Ds ) Deregulation Decentralization Decarbonization Digitalization Depopulation 3

5 Transformation of the Energy Value Chain Power Generation Transmission & Distribution of Electricity Decentralized Power Source Customers Optimizing operation & maintenance Downsizing assets Decommissioning & nuclear safety Expansion of low-carbon power source Integration of upstream and others & overseas development Platform connecting various power sources, such as decentralized power sources and EV, with customer facilities Energy management Optimal facility operation & maintenance service Increasing productivity of customers & creation of new services Expanding flexibility to adjust fluctuations of supply and demand 4

6 Digitalization of the Energy Business Optimization Cooperation of the 3 Areas Capacity Mechanism Electricity Market Generation Distribution Customers Environmental Policy Electricity Safety & Quality Consignment System New Price Menu Electricity Market IoT Simulation of Optimal Supply & Demand Behavior Analysis Improved System Balancing Big Data Analytics Capacity Factors Smart Grid Human Factors Decommissioning & Decontamination Superconductivity Renewable Energy EV Storage Battery Robots Smart House Smart Maintenance Market & Regulation Value Creation Cyberspace Improved Productivity Devices & Hardware Cost Reduction Customer Facilities Generation Facilities Transmission & Transformation Facilities Decentralized Power Sources 5

7 Road to CO 2 Net Zero Emissions Final Energy Consumption Primary Energy (Decarbonization) Nonelectricity? Energy Efficiency Biomass Fuel Fossil Fuel (+CCS) Electricity?? Renewable Energy (Other than Biomass) / Nuclear Energy Current Status In the Future 6

8 Road to CO 2 Net Zero Emissions: Power-to-X Scenario Final Energy Consumption Secondary Energy Primary Energy (Decarbonization) Nonelectricity Electricity Non-electricity Electricity Energy Efficiency via Electrification Hydrogen Electricity Biomass Fuel Fossil Fuel (+CCS) Renewable Energy (Other than Biomass) / Nuclear Energy (X: Transportation, Heating) (X: Hydrogen) Electrification of Transportation & Heating 7

9 Trial Calculation Example of Japan s Energy Balance in 2050 Final Energy Consumption in 2050 (10 18 J) Reduction by 25% from Depopulation, Progress in Energy Saving, etc. Non-electricity Additional Energy Saving from Electrification in Areas of Transportation & Heating 7.02 (Source) (980 TWh) FY2013 Electricity Trial Calculation by Business Technology Strategy Research Institute, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (750 TWh) In Case of Current Electrification Status (1300 TWh) In Case of Maximum Electrification Note: Electricity Includes Private & Decentralized Power Sources 8

10 Japan s Incoming Trade Flow of Primary Energy (FY2011) Middle East Crude: 83.1% LNG: 29.5% Russia Crude: 4.1% LNG: 9.3% North America Coal: 8.7% Australia & Southeast Asia Crude: 6.7% LNG: 51.4% Coal: 80.9% (Source) Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: Based on the Energy White Paper

11 Energy Imports under CO 2 Net Zero Emissions? CO 2 -free Energy Can Japan be economically self-sufficient? Should Japan import part of its energy from abroad? Biomass Fuel (Tankers) CO 2 -free Electricity (International Grid Connection) CO 2 -free Hydrogen (Tankers/Pipelines) 10

12 Expected Roles of International Grid Connection 1. Imports of Non-carbon Electricity Required capacity will be reduced as progress is made in decentralization of energy supply. Competition with hydrogen transportation, etc. 2. Expansion of Flexibility in Energy Supply & Demand Overall reduction of the need for flexibility resources as fluctuations in supply and demand are averaged out through wider-area networking Competition with energy storage devices (including EV and heat-pump hot-water supply) Important to compare economic efficiency with other alternative means and to secure redundancy by connecting with multiple countries. 11

13 Open Innovation Platform TEPCO is looking for partners that would realize innovative values and solutions to critical social issues. Visit our website. 12