Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Nuclear Energy Sector

Transcription

1 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Nuclear Energy Sector Ferenc L. Toth Energy-Economy-Environment (3E) Analysis Unit PESS, Department of Nuclear Energy Climate Adaptation 2014 Broadbeach, QLD, Australia, September 29 October 2, 2014 IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

2 Overview 1. Climate change and EWE projections IPCC AR5 2. CC and EWE impacts on nuclear energy 3. Main messages 2

3 1. Climate change projections AR5 3

4 1. Climate change projections AR5 4

5 1. Climate change projections AR5 5

6 1. Precipitation and water AR5 6

7 1. Extreme weather events (EWEs) What is an extreme (weather or climate) event? Definition based on statistical distribution of observed values: Occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) end of the range of observed values. Statistically: values with less than 10, 5, of 1% of chance of occurrence for a given time (day, month, season) during a specified reference period, e.g., , or

8 1. EWE projections for South Asia Tmax: High confidence: likely increase in frequency and intensity of WD and decrease in frequency of CD; Tmin: High confidence: CN likely to decrease; WN likely to increase Heat waves / Warm spells: High confidence: Likely more frequent and longer heat waves Heavy precipitation: Low confidence: more frequent and intense heavy precipitation days Dryness: Low confidence: inconsistent signal of change 8

9 Key: nuclear - lots in common with thermal, but special: - Physical protection and security - Diverse, independent, redundant safety systems (to prevent common cause failures later) - Need for long-term core cooling - Need for reliable electric grid indirect effects 9

10 Gradual CC: slow shifts in average/mean, discrete: - temperature: thermal efficiency, cooling efficiency - precipitation: water availability and temperature - windiness: enhanced cooling but also evaporation - insolation: warming surfaces - SLR: inundation negligible effects, easy to prepare for Combined effects: T + P + W + I main problem: water Q and T cooling 10

11 EWEs: already trouble + exacerbated by gradual CC Single EWEs - direct discrete impacts: - T hot: thermal and cooling efficiency - T cold: tubes, pipes, wet cooling - P high: site flooding (emergency equip, SF storage) - P low: low water levels - Wind high: structural damage, debris - Lightning: I&C, switchyard Cumulative direct: P low drought: cooling Nasty combinations: drought: T hot + P low: cooling 11 T P W : forest fire instrumentation, access

12 IAEA PRIS Outages per cause from 2004 to 2011 Cause Duration (1000 h) Energy Loss (TWh) No. of events A B C D E F G H J K L M N P R S T U Z Total

13 0 Warm cooling water 1 Cold cooling water 2 Flood 3 Low water level Coding of N environmental conditions : Weather Lightning / thunderstorm Storms (typhoon, hurricane) Other weather-related Non-W env.: pollution Unspec. env. restriction Earthquake / tsunami 7, 8, 9: Non-weather 11: Excluded non-environmental 10 Seasonal variation CWT 11 Excluded: not environmental (market, techincal, cleaning) 13

14 Number of events, weather-related causes,

15 Energy loss (TWh), weather-related causes,

16 Number of events, weather-related causes,

17 Energy loss (TWh), weather-related causes,

18 - High ambient water temps diminish NPP s cooling capacity - Hot water discharge may not be allowed legally when water temps are already high - Result is forced shutdown - Summer 2003: France lost 5.3 TWhs from 17 nuclear plants, costing 300 million euros France granted waivers to discharge water above regulatory heat limits - Summer 2006 France again granted waivers for hot water discharge German thermal plants reduced cap. = 1741 MW

19 Cost of non-adapting: - Every 24 hours a 1 GW unit is shut down costs the owner 1.2 million euros (assuming 50 euros per MWh) - Outages leading to wider blackouts can impose substantial indirect costs - Value of lost output in developed countries ranges from 200 to 960 million euros for a 24 hour blackout (based on lost output for a 1 GW plant) cif. costs of adaptation 19

20 3. Main messages Current climate + EWEs: NE sector exposed and vulnerable, but adaptive and resilient NE sector, especially NPPs, special case: technology (cooling, grid), radiation hazard Future CC and changing EWEs: new challenges - Adaptation existing: feasible, but C/BA after PSA - Adaptation new: revised design bases, site selection IAEA support to MSs: - Safety Standards and Guides: continuous updates - Nuclear and other energy sector: CRP for joint work 20

21 IAEA - atoms for peace. 21