Global Insolation Budget. Solar Radiation. Greenhouse Gases. Air: Climate and Pollution. Weather, Climate, Winds, Rain

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1 Global Insolation Budget Air: Climate and Pollution Weather, Climate, Winds, Rain Changes in solar radiation are responsible for many important environmental factors, including El Niño. Review them Solar Radiation Visible light passes through atmosphere undiminished. Ultraviolet light is absorbed by ozone in the stratosphere. Infrared radiation is absorbed by carbon dioxide and water in the troposphere. Energy reemitted by the earth is mainly infrared radiation (heat). Heat is absorbed in the lower atmosphere, trapping it close to the earth s surface. Greenhouse Effect It is bad thing? No, But Increasing atmospheric CO 2 due to human activities appears to be causing an increase in the Greenhouse Effect global warming. Air Pollution and Climate Change Greenhouse Gases 1

2 The link between $ and GHG or is there?? Growth Trends California s GHG Emissions How to factor population size, exports, etc? But this is not the whole story 2

3 States vs. Nations From Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) What we put in the atmosphere now will last for ~50 years. Think about that, what does that mean? The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores. IPCC Changes to the Ocean will last ~600 years What is our collective worry time? 3

4 Global Warming is a FACT The Problem: what is natural and what is us? Vostok Ice Cores n=1 The Earth naturally goes through warming and cooling periods, which makes it very difficult to understand what is happening now. `The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate ' `There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activity' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Second Assessment Report, 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Third Assessment Report, 2001 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level - from the effects of human activities. So what, why bother? Even small changes in global temperature have large effects on the planet, and our species. Increased Rain/Drought, Disease, Storms, etc Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Fourth Assessment Report,

5 Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? : Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice 2005 lowest ice in recorded history video Until Sept 2007, when it was even lower An Ice-free Arctic? Antarctic Ice Shelf Why do we care more about ice shelves and glaciers with respect to sea level rise? Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004 Glacier Retreat 5

6 Sea Level Rise Not from Sea Ice melt! From thermal expansion and melting of land-based ice Florida, 1 meter change The Acid Ocean While we worry over atmospheric climate change, the real crisis of the 21 st century will probably be in the Ocean. The battlefield of that crisis is the Pacific, and Monterey Bay is Ground Zero. What will be the ecology of the acid ocean? How will the food chain be altered? What management practices will need to be changed? Ocean Acidification The oceans absorb most of our CO 2 emissions When CO 2 dissolves into the water it form Carbonic Acid. Additional stresses for animals that are already food-limited Living on the edge Data from Jim Barry, MBARI Depth (m) ph variation in the Pacific Ocean Central Pacific Western Pacific North Pacific Antarctic Pacific Eastern Pacific Present Ocean Food Web Diverse, Complex, Productive Primary Producers Sinking Organic Debris What are the expected effects of An acidified Ocean? Zooplankton food web Seafloor community Upper Trophic levels Microbial Remineralization 6

7 Future Ocean Food Web Loss of biodiversity, low productivity, dominated by microbial recycling? Primary Producers Zooplankton food web Upper Trophic levels! Holy Crap! What can we do about it all?! Sinking Organic Debris Simplified Food Web, Increased Microbial Dominance Seafloor community Microbial Remineralization Moving from unknown to fear of known to action. Wedges What can we do about it?!? 14 7 Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions Currently projected path Flat path O 14 GtC/y Seven wedges 7 GtC/y Source: Robert Socolw, Need to reduce 8 wedges worth by 2054 to hold steady What is worth 1 GT of CO 2 Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges 1. Efficient vehicles increase fuel economy from 30 to 60 mpg for 2 billion vehicles 2. Reduce use of vehicles improve urban design to reduce miles driven from 10,000 to 5,000 miles per year for 2 billion vehicles 3. Efficient buildings reduce energy consumption by 25% 4. Improve efficiency of coal plants from today's 40% to 60% 5. Replace 1,400 gigawatts of coal power plants with natural gas 6. Capture and store carbon emitted from 800 gigawatts of new coal plants 7. Capture and reuse hydrogen created by #6 above 8. Capture and store carbon from coal to syn fuels conversion at 30 million barrels per day (4,800,000 m³/d) 9. Displace 700 gigawatts of coal power with nuclear 10. Add 2 million 1 megawatt windmills (50 times current capacity) 11. Displace 700 gigawatts of coal with 2,000 gigawatts (peak) solar power (700 times current capacity) 12. Produce hydrogen fuel from 4 million 1 megawatt windmills 13. Use biomass to make fuel to displace oil (100 times current capacity) 14. Stop de-forestation and re-establish 300 million hectares of new tree plantations 15. Conservation tillage apply to all crop land (10 times current usage) Reforestation Wind power and others Adapted from: Robert Socolw, Biofuels Stabilization Triangle 7 GtC/y Mass transit 14 GtC/y Carbon Capture & Storage Energy Efficiency Coal-based Synfuels with CCS 7

8 None of the options is a pipe dream or an unproven idea. Today, one can buy electricity from a wind turbine, PV array, gas turbine, or nuclear power plant. One can buy hydrogen produced with the chemistry of carbon capture, biofuel to power one s car, and hundreds of devices that improve energy efficiency. One can visit tropical forests where clear-cutting has ceased, farms practicing conservation tillage, and facilities that inject carbon into geologic reservoirs. Every one of these options is already implemented at an industrial scale and could be scaled up further over 50 years to provide at least one wedge. Climate Competitiveness with the Auto Industry Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004 Source: World Resources Institute and Sustainable Asset Management Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards around the World 2007 Lexus 350 vs. Lexus 400h Hybrid City Fuel Economy: (miles per gallon) Highway Fuel Economy: (miles per gallon) Combined Fuel Economy: (miles per gallon) Fuel Consumption: (gallons per 100 miles) h Difference % change 55% 9% 30% 23% What good is a Hybrid? Estimated Annual Fuel Cost: ($ dollars) $ % Oxides of Nitrogen % Carbon Monoxide % Non-Methane Organic Cmpd % Particulate Matter Smog-forming Pollution: (pounds per year) Greenhouse Gases Emitted: (tons per year) % 76% 23% Green Vehicle Guide The Ozone Hole Ozone (O 3 ) absorbs UV radiation, Sunscreen for living things The ozone hole is an area with 50% less ozone than normal Stratospheric ozone absorbs UV radiation = Good Tropospheric ozone = bad Aerosols/Smog! (photochemical pollution) CFCs: chlorofluorocarbons: Cl lasts years in the stratosphere and each Cl atom can break down 100,000 ozone molecules Halons: Carbon/Bromine/Fluorine- Bromine- 40x as destructive as Cl. Ozone Hole over Antarctica is the size of Canada, USA, and Mexico combined. Video International Climate Negotiations Kyoto Protocol (1997) 160 nations agreed to roll back carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions about 5% below their 1990 levels by Sets different limits for different countries, depending on prior output. Developing countries exempted. US was instrumental in its construction but did not approve Why?? Expires in 2012, and international talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one 8

9 CLEAN AIR LEGISLATION Clean Air Act (1963) - First national air pollution control. Clean Air Act (1970) rewrote original Act. Identified critical pollutants. Established ambient air quality standards. Primary Standards - Human health Secondary Standards - Materials, environment, aesthetic and comfort. Clean Air Act Revision (1990) - Included provision for: Acid Rain Urban Smog Toxic Air Pollutants Ozone Protection Marketing Pollution Rights Fugitive emissions of volatile organics Ambient ozone, soot, and dust NO x emissions CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS In the United States, air quality has improved dramatically in the last decade in terms of major large-volume pollutants. Cities where pollution is largely from traffic still have serious air quality problems. Major metropolitan areas of many developing countries are growing at explosive rates, and environmental quality is very poor. 9