Current Issues in Time-Series Analysis for the Energy-Growth Nexus; Asymmetries and Nonlinearities Case Study: Pakistan

Transcription

1 MPRA Munch Personal RePEc Archve Curren Issues n Tme-Seres Analyss for he Energy-Growh Nexus; Asymmeres and Nonlneares Case Sudy: Paksan Muhammad Shahbaz Monpeller Busness School, Monpeller, France 8 Ocober 2017 Onlne a hps://mpra.ub.un-muenchen.de/82221/ MPRA Paper No , posed 27 Ocober :55 UTC

2 Curren Issues n Tme-Seres Analyss for he Energy-Growh Nexus; Asymmeres and Nonlneares Case Sudy: Paksan Muhammad Shahbaz Monpeller Busness School, Monpeller, France Emal: muhdshahbaz77@gmal.com m.shahbaz@monpeller-bs.com Absrac: Ths paper nvesgaes he asymmerc mpac of energy consumpon on economc growh by ncludng ol prces, capal and labour as addonal deermnans n producon funcon. In dong so, he non-lnear ARDL bounds esng approach s appled for he perod of 1985Q I -2016Q IV. The emprcal evdence confrms he presence of symmerc and asymmerc conegraon beween energy consumpon, ol prces, capal, labour and economc growh over he perod of 1985Q I -2016Q IV. Furhermore, rse n energy consumpon (posve shock) adds o economc growh va smulang economc acvy and energy consumpon negave shock reards economc growh nsgnfcanly. Rse (posve shock) and fall (negave shock) n ol prces declne and smulae economc growh. Capal and labor affec economc growh posvely and negave by posve and negave shocks n capal and labor. The emprcal fndngs open new nsghs for polcy makers for long-run and susanable economc developmen. Keywords: Energy Consumpon, Economc Growh, Ol Prces, Asymmeres 1

3 I. Inroducon The energy-growh nexus has come under nense scruny for he las four decades (Jumbe 2004, Chonanawa e al. 2008, Payne 2009, Ozurk 2010, Belke e al. 2011, Apergs and Tang 2013, Khan e al. 2014, Shahbaz e al. 2017a). The ssue s mporan because energy drves he wheels of economc growh. A sgnfcan and sharp ncrease n he demand for energy can be arbued o; (a) promoon of economc growh n he emergng naons; and (b) manenance of lvng sandards n he developed naons. A consderable amoun of emprcal sudes nvesgang he energy-growh nexus, shed lgh on four dfferen hypoheses. The growh hypohess reveals ha gross domesc produc s sgnfcanly conrbued by energy use (Ozurk, 2010). Emprcally, he growh hypohess s valdaed f a boos n real gross domesc produc s caused by addng o energy demand. Ths suggess ha energy conservaon polces may mpede economc growh. However, f economc growh s nversely affeced by energy consumpon hen dfferen argumens could jusfy for he adverse mpacs of energy consumpon on economc growh (Ozurk, 2010). For example, we could magne a suaon where a growng economy arges o reduce he level of energy consumpon by he means of producon shfs o lesser energy nensve secors. Furhermore, he neffcen use of energy such as consrans n capacy use or an neffcen supply of energy may also have negave mpac on economc growh or growh of real GDP (Chonanawa e al. 2008, Payne 2009, Ozurk 2010). The conservaon hypohess suggess ha real GDP growh s no mpeded by adopng energy conservaon polces n an economy (Chonanawa e al. 2008, Payne 2009). The conservaon hypohess s valdaed f causaly runs from real GDP growh o energy consumpon. Ye, exogenous evens or bad managemen of energy as well as polcal suaon, qualy of nfrasrucure, or bad managemen of naural resources can nfluence he level of energy consumpon (Chonanawa e al. 2008, Ozurk 2010). In such suaon, a boos n real GDP growh may have nverse effec on energy demand. The neuraly hypohess consders ha energy use plays a mnor role n he growh of real GDP or economc acvy should no be sgnfcanly affeced by energy use and hence economc growh (Chonanawa e al. 2008, Payne 2010, Ozurk 2010). In hs case, approval of conservaon polces would no harmful for real GDP growh. The man reason s ha energy 2

4 use does no Granger cause economc growh and n resulng, economc growh does no Granger cause energy use. Lasly, he feedback hypohess ndcaes he muual allance of energy use and real GDP growh. In such crcumsances, a conssen (decrease) energy supply ncreases (decreases) real GDP, and smlarly, a rse (declne) n real GDP leads o rse (decrease) n energy consumpon (Chonanawa e al. 2008, Payne 2009, Ozurk 2010). If he energy-growh nexus s bdreconal hen he feedback hypohess s valdaed. Ths hypohess suggess ha for un-nerruped supply of energy and susanable economc growh n an economy, we should adop energy exploraon polces. In such suaon, adopon of effcen energy consumpon polces may no be harmful for susanable economc growh (Payne, 2009). The presence of four compeng hypoheses.e. growh, conservave, feedback and neuraly ndcaes he ambguy of emprcal fndngs. Ths ambguy n emprcal resuls may be because of asymmeres exs n energy-growh nexus. Ths shows he complexy of relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc growh. These asymmeres are oucome of complex economc sysem and sysem whch generae macroeconomc varables under consderaon for relable emprcal resuls o desgn comprehensve economc polces o man long-run economc growh. Paksan mplemened numerous economc reforms n fscal, exernal and energy secors over he perod of me o manan he macroeconomc performance. Ths has no only affeced he macroeconomc performance bu also creaed he possbly of asymmeres n he rend of he varables whch may affec he assocaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh. In such crcumsances, lnear emprcal nvesgaon provdes nconclusve emprcal resuls (Shahbaz e al. 2017a). Ths mples he mporance of asymmeres whle nvesgang relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc growh. Ths chaper conrbues o exsng by hree folds: (), The augmened producon funcon s employed o nvesgae he assocaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh by consderng ol prces, capal and labor usng nonlnear framework. () The un roo properes of energy consumpon, economc growh, ol prces, capal and labor are nvesgaed by applyng lnear and nonlnear un roo ess. Las bu no leas, (), The Nonlnear ARDL approach developed by Shn e al. (2014) s appled for examnng nonlnear effec of energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labor on economc growh. Our emprcal analyss reveals he asymmerc conegraon beween 3

5 economc growh and s deermnans. Furhermore, economc growh posvely and negave affecs by posve and negave shocks sem n energy consumpon. Ol prces affec economc growh negavely and posvely by s posve and negave shocks. Posve shock n capal adds n economc growh bu negave shock n capal declnes. The conrbuon of posve and negave shocks n labor o economc growh s posve and negave. The res of chaper s organzed as followng: Secon-II revews relevan leraure. The modellng, daa collecon and mehodology are descrbed n Secon-III. Secon-IV deals wh resuls nerpreaons. Fnally, secon-v provdes concluson wh polcy mplcaons. II. Leraure Revew Kraf and Kraf (1978) appled he bvarae model o survey he energy-growh nexus over he perod of n he case of he USA. They saed ha energy consumpon causes real GNP n Granger sense. Laer on, Abosedra and Baghesan (1991) renvesgaed he assocaon beween boh varables by applyng Granger (1969) causaly approach. Ther fndngs suppored he vew repored by Kraf and Kraf (1978). On he conrary, Zarnkau (1997) appled Granger (1969) causaly es o re-examne he afflaon beween energy demand (proxes by Dvsa energy ndex) and real GDP growh for he US economy. The resuls showed he feedback effec.e. bdreconal causaly beween boh varables. Payne (2008) consdered he energy-growh by Toda and Yamamoo (1995) causaly approach and repored he neural effec beween boh varables. The Markov-swchng causaly approach was appled by Fallah (2011) o observe he energy-growh nexus n he case of USA. Ths model repors he causaly resuls regmewse such as , , and The emprcal exercse showed he feedback effec.e. energy use causes growh and n resulng, growh causes energy use n and no causaly s found beween boh varables for he res of regmes. Usng Paksan daa, Raz and Sern (1984) suded he energy-growh nexus by ulzng energy supply and demand funcons. They repored ha real GDP growh rases energy use and hus energy use enhances real GDP growh. Aqeel and Bu (2001) used he bvarae model o examne causaly beween energy sources (coal, peroleum, elecrcy consumpon and consumpon of naural gas and real GDP growh. They appled Granger (1969) conegraon and Hsao Granger causaly ess. Ther resuls confrmed he exsence of conegraon. The 4

6 emprcal exercse of causaly es unveled ha oal energy consumpon Granger causes economc growh, peroleum consumpon s cause of real GDP growh, neural effec exss beween naural gas consumpon and economc growh (coal consumpon and real GDP growh) and he shor run causaly beween elecrcy consumpon and economc growh s bdreconal. Yang (2000) used daa on growh n energy use and real GDP growh o check he causaly relaon beween he varables by applyng Engle-Granger (1987) conegraon approach. He repored ha varables are found o be conegraed as well as he response effec exss beween energy consumpon and economc growh n Tawan s economy. For Turksh economy, Alnay and Karagol (2004) examned causal assocaon beween growh n energy and real GDP growh by ulzng Hsao s verson of he Granger causaly approach and Perron (1997) es wh srucural break pons. They ndcaed he presence of srucural breaks showng he mpac of macroeconomc polces on growh n energy use and real GDP. Ther analyss valdaed he neural effec beween he varables. Lee and Chang (2005) used bvarae model o analyze he afflaon beween use of energy and real GDP growh. They appled ess developed by Perron (1997) and Gregory and Hansen (1996) respecvely. Ther emprcal oucome exposed ha conegraon s presen. Real GDP growh causes energy use and resulanly, energy use causes real GDP growh n Granger sense n Tawan economy. Furher, real GDP growh has posve and sgnfcan effec on energy demand. Lee and Chang (2007) appled lnear and non-lnear models o observe he oucome of energy use on domesc oupu growh n he case of Tawan. Ther resuls ndcaed he assocaon beween energy use and domesc oupu growh ha s nvered U-shaped. I enals ha a nal level of developmen, energy demand s ncreased wh a boos n economc growh and sars o declne afer a hreshold level of real GDP per capa. Furhermore, he lnear model confrms he exsence of feedback effec beween boh varables. Dhungel (2008) examned he conegraon and causaly relaonshps beween boh varables by usng Johansen and Juselus (1990) conegraon and he VECM Granger causaly approaches. The emprcal evdence unveled ha boh he seres lnked for long-run and causaly s found runnng from energy causes growh n Nepal. For Tanzana, Odhambo (2009) used he ARDL bounds esng o observe he long-run rappor beween growh n energy use and ncome per capa growh. The conegraon beween he varables s found once energy and elecrcy consumpon were used 5

7 as dependen varables. The causaly analyss by Granger (1969) causaly approach ndcaed ha oal energy demand s cause of ncome per capa growh n Granger sense. Paul and Uddn (2011) looked no he energy-growh nexus for Bangladesh by applyng nnovave accounng approach. Ther resuls showed ha growh n real GDP s no lead by growh n energy use, bu shocks n growh n real GDP adversely affec growh n energy use. In he case of Indonesa, Arfn and Syahruddn (2011) nspeced he causaly beween energy consumpon measured by energy sources (renewable and non-renewable), and growh n ncome per capa by applyng Toda and Yamamoo (1995) Granger causaly es. They documened ha growh n ncome per capa s Granger caused by renewable energy. Usng he Paksan economc daa, Lew e al. (2012) examned wheher secoral economc growh leads energy consumpon by applyng he Johansen-Juselus (1990) and par-wse Granger causaly approaches. They arculaed ha he conegraon relaon s vald for he long run relaon. Moreover, her emprcal exercse exposed he bdreconal causaly beween agrculure growh energy consumpon. The neural effec subsss beween ndusral growh and energy consumpon and he smlar nference s drawn for servces growh and energy consumpon. Zaman e al. (2012) explored he mpac of oal energy consumpon on agrculure, ndusral and servces secors usng he bvarae models. They appled Johansen- Juselus (1990), error-correcon model and nnovave accounng approach for causaly analyss. Ther resuls sugges ha oal energy consumpon has negave mpac on ndusral growh, populaon and agrculural growh negavely affec oal energy use. They furher found ha he feedback effec s valdaed. Usng daa of he Croaan economy, Borozan (2013) explored he relaonshp beween boh varables. The resuls of VAR Granger causaly es revealed ha real GDP s Granger cause of oal energy use confrmed by mpulse response funcon es. We fnd ha hese sudes focused on applyng he bvarae model o es he energy-growh nexus, bu gnored he role of capalzaon, labor and oher poenal varables. Ths mples ha fndngs of hese sudes may be based due o excluson of pernen varables. The menoned varables such as capal and labor play mporan role n producon funcon and boh are deermnans of economc growh and energy consumpon. Oher varables such as employmen, 6

8 governmen consumpon expendures, developmen spendng, consumer prces, energy prces, ol consumpon, exchange rae ec. may affec domesc producon and energy consumpon. For example, Yu e al. (1988) appled Granger (1969) and Sms (1972) causaly echnques o probe he lnkages beween energy use, oal employmen and non-farm employmen. Ther emprcal evdence showed ha energy consumpon Granger causes non-farm employmen (neural effec s presen beween boh varables by Sms causaly es) s repored by Granger (1969) causaly es. Mahmud (2000) appled he paral equlbrum model o probe he effec of energy and non-energy npus on manufacurng secor. The fndngs revealed ha shocks n energy prces reduce capal nvesmen and ncrease he cos of producon n manufacurng secor, whle energy and non-energy npus are no possble subsues. In he case of Greece, Hondroyanns e al. (2002) explored he causaly relaon amd energy use, energy prce and growh by employng Johansen and Juselus (1990) conegraon for he long-run. The VECM Granger causaly es s employed for causal relaonshp among he seres. They found he conegraon and growh causes energy and resulanly, energy causes growh. Narayan and Smyh (2005) appled he rvarae model o es he causal relaon amd energy use, ncome and employmen usng Ausralan me seres daa. They found conegraon and noed ha employmen and ncome cause energy use n Granger sense. For Paksan, Mushaq e al. (2007) suded he mpac of agrculural growh and agrculural energy prces on agrculural energy consumpon (ol, elecrcy and naural gas consumpon). Ther emprcal exercse ndcaed he occurrence of he long-run afflaon and agrculural growh Granger causes ol and elecrcy consumpon n agrculure secor. Salm e al. (2008) employed energy demand funcon by ncorporang energy prces and real GDP growh n Bangladesh, Chna, Inda, Malaysa, Thaland and Paksan. Ther resuls showed he conegraon and energy use Granger causes real GDP growh and energy prces n he shor-run n Paksan. Yu e al. (2008) nvesgaed energy demand by ncorporang energy prces and per capa ncome growh n he rvarae framework for Chnese economy by applyng he nnovave accounng approach. They found he negave (posve) oucome of energy prces (per capa ncome growh) on energy consumpon. Wesseh and Zoumara (2012) engaged energy, employmen and growh o examne her relaonshp by applyng non-paramerc boosrapped causaly es n he case of Lbera. They confrmed he presence of conegraon by he ADRL bounds esng analyss. 7

9 They uncovered ha energy use and employmen boos growh process and enhance domesc producon. The boosrapped causaly fndngs ndcaed ha growh s cause of employmen and he bdreconal relaon s vald beween energy and growh n Granger sense. Adom (2013) used energy demand funcon o es he energy-growh by applyng me-varyng approach n he case of Ghana. The resuls suggesed ha economc growh adds n energy demand and energy prces declne, bu mpac vares wh regme shfs. The emprcal fndngs repored by Granger (1969) and Sms (1972) may be based due o low explanaory power. These sandard approaches faled o deec causaly from oher channels and provded conradcory fndngs (Asafu-Adjaye, 2000). Gven he lmaon and dscrepances n radonal conegraon and causaly ess, Iqbal (1986) appled he Zellner erave mehod o examne he mpac of energy consumpon (all ypes of energy), capal and labor on small manufacurng secor n Paksan. He noed ha energy consumpon, capal and labor are subsues whle he relaonshp beween naural gas consumpon and elecrcy consumpon s complemenary. Chsh and Mahmud (1990) re-nvesgaed he relaonshp beween energy, non-energy npus and large manufacurng secor usng an aggregae Dvsa ndex. They repored ha energy consumpon, capal and labor are major deermnans of large manufacurng secor. Ther emprcal evdence unveled ha energy and capal have complemenary relaonshp whle labor and energy are subsues. Sern (1993) used he Dvsa energy ndex as a measure of energy consumpon o explore he energy-growh nexus. He used he mulvarae framework by ncludng capalzaon and employmen n he energy-growh nexus. The emprcal evdence ndcaed ha he undreconal causal relaon runs from energy consumpon o economc growh. Sern (2000) ncorporaed capal and labor as conrbung facors o energy consumpon and economc growh. The producon funcon s ulzed o probe he energy-growh n he US economy. He appled Johansen (1991) for he long-run and he VECM Granger causaly approaches for he causaly lnkages. The emprcal evdence showed he posve effec of energy consumpon, capal and labor on oupu growh.e. shocks n energy consumpon, capal and labor declne oupu growh and hus, economc growh. The emprcal resuls revealed he neural effec beween energy use and oupu growh. 8

10 Usng Paksan daa, Alam and Bu (2002) renvesgaed he drecon of causaly beween boh varables by ncorporang capal and labor as supplemenary deermnans of energy use and oupu growh. They employed Johansen-Juselus (1990) es for conegraon and he VECM for causaly relaonshp. They noed he valdaon of conegraon beween he seres. Ther emprcal exercse confrmed he feedback effec beween boh varables. Furhermore, capal causes energy consumpon and economc growh and labor causes o economc growh n Granger sense for he shor-run. Oh, and Lee (2004) appled energy demand (ncome and energy prces) and producon (energy consumpon, capal and labor) funcon n he mulvarae framework o verfy he energy-growh nexus n he case of Korea. Ther fndngs ndcaed ha energy use us lead by growh n ncome per capa. Soyas e al. (2007) appled he Toda- Yamamoo (1995) and he varance decomposon approaches o re-assess he causal relaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh by ncludng capal, labor and carbon emssons n mulvarae regresson model for he USA. They exposed ha he neural effec s valdaed for energy consumpon and economc growh. Smlarly, Payne (2009) renvesgaed he causaly beween energy sources and ncome per capa growh by applyng Toda- Yamamoo (1995) causaly approach. He found ha energy sources do no conrbue o ncome per capa growh. Kaplan e al. (2011) renvesgaed he causaly beween energy and growh usng he mulvarae versons of energy demand and neo-classcal producon funcons by addng energy prces, capal and labor. They appled Johansen and Juselus (1990) for he longrun and he VECM Granger es for causaly assocaons. Ther fndngs valdaed he conegraon among he varables for boh models. Furher, hey found he bdreconal afflaon beween he seres. Smlarly, Shahduzzaman and Alam (2012) appled he supply-sde producon funcon o look no he energy-growh nexus by addng capal and labor for Ausrala. The Johansen-Juselus (1990) for conegraon as well as he Toda-Yamaoo (1995) Granger causaly ess were appled. Ther resuls suppored for he occurrence of conegraon. They noed ha energy use, capal and labor add n real GDP growh. The fndngs of Toda-Yamaoo (1995) Granger causaly showed ha real GDP growh s cause of energy use and energy use s cause of real GDP growh n Granger use. Usng he US daa, Gross (2012) renvesgaed he correlaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh by ncludng energy prces, rade, 9

11 capalzaon n he mulvarae framework. The emprcal evdence revealed ha economc growh has posve mpac on energy consumpon. The feedback effec exss n he shor run, bu neural effec s vald for he long-run beween boh varables s valdaed by he VECM Granger causaly es. Usng Swedsh daa, Sern and Enflo (2013) assessed he causaly beween energy (Dvsa energy ndex) and oupu usng he bvarae and mulvarae producon funcons. They found ha oupu Granger causes energy consumpon, bu he reverse s no rue by usng he bvarae model. In he mulvarae model by ncorporang capal and labor, her emprcal evdence ndcaed ha energy use s cause of economc growh n Granger sense. They have also used energy demand funcon and noed ha energy prces and economc growh cause energy use n Granger sense. Shahbaz e al. (2012) nvesgaed he mpac of energy use measures by renewable and non-renewable energy sources on real GDP growh. They confrmed he long-run assocaon and he feedback relaon exss beween consumpon of energy sources and economc growh. Ahmed e al. (2013) used rvarae framework o examne he assocaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh. Ther emprcal evdence provdes ha energy consumpon plays mporan by smulang economc growh. Yldrm e al. (2014) nvesgaed he assocaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh by usng bvarae framework for N-11 counres. They found ha neural effec exss beween energy consumpon and economc growh n Paksan. Ahmed e al. (2015) revsed he energy-growh nexus n Paksan and found ha economc growh leads energy consumpon. In case of USA, Arora and Sh (2016) appled augmened producon funcon for nvesgang lnkages beween energy consumpon and economc growh by addng capal and labor as addonal deermnans of economc growh. Ther emprcal resuls ndcae ha energy consumpon plays val role n boosng economc growh lke capal and labor. Shahbaz e al. (2016) augmened producon funcon by addng fnancal developmen as addonal deermnan of economc growh and energy consumpon. Ther emprcal evdence repored ha fnancal developmen srenghens energy-growh nexus. For Turksh economy, Paa and Terz (2017) noed ha energy consumpon s man smulaor of economc growh. Consderng mporan role plays by asymmeres n energy-growh nexus, Arac and Hasanov (2014) have appled lnear and nonlnear emprcal approaches o examne asymmerc relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc growh. Ther emprcal evdence ndcaes ha posve and negave shocks n energy consumpon posve and negavely affec 10

12 economc growh bu mpac of negave shocks sems n energy consumpon has domnan effec ha of posve shock. Shahbaz e al. (2017a) employed classcal producon funcon o examne asymmerc assocaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh by applyng nonlnear ARDL developed by Shn e al. (2014) for Indan economy. Ther emprcal resuls confrm he presence of asymmeres and conegraon as well. Economc growh posvely and negavely affecs by negave and posve shocks occur n energy consumpon. Capal (posve and negave shocks) and labor (posve shock) also have posve effec on economc growh. III. The Modellng, Daa and Mehodology Inconclusveness naure of producon funcon always provdes a movaon o researchers for nvesgang relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc growh. In dong so, researchers appled dfferen emprcal approaches on producon funcon by ncorporang addonal deermnans of economc growh bu emprcal resuls on energy-growh are sll ambguous (Shahbaz e al. 2017a). Polcy makers are handy-caped for desgnng a comprehensve economc and energy polces for susanable long-run economc growh. Paksan has been facng energy crss for las wo decades and sasfyng domesc energy demand by mporng ol 1. Ths mples shows ha ol prces shocks n nernaonal marke no only affecs energy-growh bu also macroeconomc performance n Paksan. In dong so, we have added ol prces as addonal facor of domesc producon affecng economc acvy. Ol prces affec economc growh va supply-sde and demand-sde channels. The supply-sde hypohess enals ha ol prces plays val role n domesc producon and rse n ol prces ncreases he cos of producon. Ths rse n cos of producon leads frms o lower oupu and ncrease producon prces whch hkes nflaon (Tang e al. 2010, Shahbaz e al. 2017b). Accordng o demand-sde hypohess, shocks n ol prces affec consumpon and nvesmen acves. Ol prces hkes slow economc acvy by lowerng demand for labor and n resulng, affec real wages. Ol prces shock affecs nflaon va cos of producon and exchange and n resulng, economc acvy s affeced and hence, economc growh (F e al. 2016, Shahbaz e al. 2017b). The general form of he augmened producon funcon s modeled as follows: 1 Paksan s bascally an ol dependen counry. 11

13 Y f E, OP, K, L ) (1) ( The log-lnear specfcaon s used for emprcal purpose followng Shahbaz and Lean (2012). They argued ha a log-lnear specfcaon s approprae for aanng effcen and relable emprcal resuls compared o smple lnear specfcaon. We also ransform varables no per capa uns excep ol prces. Followng Shahbaz and Lean and laer on Shahbaz e al. (2017a), we ransform all he varables no naural-log. The emprcal equaon of augmened producon funcon s modeled as follows: lny 0 1 ln E 2 ln OP 3 ln K 4 ln L (2) where, ln ndcaes naural-log, Y s economc growh measured by real GDP per capa, shows energy consumpon, and labor are shown by O s ol prces, capal measures by gross fxed capal formaon K and L. s an error erm wh a normal dsrbuon. E The sudy covers he perod of 1985 QI QIV. The World Developmen Indcaors (CD-ROM, 2017) s used o collec daa on real GDP (n local currency, consan 2010), energy consumpon (kg of ol equvalen), gross fxed capal formaon (n local currency, consan 2010) and labor force. The daa on ol prces s obaned from Paksan Energy Year Book (2017) 2. Toal populaon s used o conver all he varables no per capa un excep ol prces. III.I The NARDL Bounds Tesng Approach for Asymmerc Conegraon The presence of asymmeres n energy consumpon, ol prces, capal, labour and economc growh nends us o apply nonlnear conegraon approach o examne asymmerc conegraon long run beween he varables. In dong so, we choose mulvarae nonlnear ARDL (NARDL) conegraon es orgnaed by Shn e al. (2014) n order o examne long run relaonshp beween he varables. Ths approach capures asymmeres and nonlneares sem n me seres daa. The NARDL approach dfferenaes he long run and shor run asymmerc mpac of energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labour on economc growh. The vecor 2 Ol prces ransform no real erms by deflang nflaon. 12

14 13 error correcon model (VECM) or smooh ranson model (STM) suffer from convergence problem f prolferaon of esmaes exss. The NARDL provdes effcen emprcal analyss by solvng ssue of prolferaon of esmaes relaed problem. Ths es does no requred ha all he varables should be negraed a same order of negraon. The NARDL es s applcable f all he varables are negraed a I(1) or varables have flexble order of negraon. In he presence of asymmeres and nonlneares, flexbly of negrang order s mporan (see for more deals Hoang e al. 2016). Ths approach solves he problem of mulcollneary wh he help of approprae lag lengh selecon of he varables (Shn e al. 2014). The emprcal equaon of producon funcon s modelled n equaon-3 followng NARDL framework nroduced by Shn e al. (2014): q q q q q q q q p D L L K K O O E E Y L L K K O O E E Y Y (3) where, ndcaes he shor-run esmaes n equaon-3 and long-run esmaes are shown by wh Ths shows ha shor-run analyss nends o examne he mmedae mpacs of exogenous varables changes.e. energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labour on dependen varable.e. economc growh. On conrary, me reacon and speed of adjusmen owards longrun equlbrum level s measured by long run analyss. The Wald es s appled n order o es he presence of asymmeres n long-run ( ) and shor-run ( ) as well for all he varables.e. energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labour. Y s economc growh, E ndcaes energy consumpon, O s ol prces, K shows capal and L s labour. We also ncorporae D s a dummy varable, capures he effec of srucural break s deermned by Km and Perron (2009) un roo es. p and q s used o show he opmal lag lengh no only for dependen varable ( Y ) bu also for ndependen varables ( E, O, K, L ) employng he Akake nformaon creron (AIC) due o s superor explanaory properes. The explanaory varables are decomposed no posve and negave paral sums as follows:

15 max,0 x x j mn x j,0, x x x j j j1 j1 j1 j1 wh x ndcaes E, O, K and L. We follow bounds es.e. jon es of all he lagged levels of regressor proposed by Shn e al. (2014) n order o examne he presence of long run conegraon whle accommodang asymmeres. We use wo es(s): -sasc developed by Banerjee e al. (1998) and F-sasc orgnaed by Pesaran e al. (2001). Usng -sasc, we follow he null hypohess: 0 agans alernae hypohess: 0. F-sasc follows he null hypohess: 0. The rejecon of null hypohess of no conegraon ndcaes he presence of long-run relaonshp beween economc growh and s deermnans, and vce versa. Asymmerc esmaes for long run are esmaed followng L / and L /. These esmaes for long run, wh m respec o posve and negave shocks n energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labour, quanfes he assocaon beween he varables for long run equlbrum. The asymmerc dynamc mulpler effecs are measured by followng equaons as gven below: m m h h Y j0 E j h Y, mh j0 E j h Y, mh O j0 j h Y, mh O j 0 j h Y, mh j0 K j h Y, mh j0 K j m h h j0 Y j L h Y, mh L j0 j for h 0,1, 2... where, f h, hen m and m. h L m h L m The asymmerc response of economc growh o posve and negave shocks n energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labour are shown by dynamc mulplers. These mulplers esmaes show he dynamc adjusmens from he nal o new equlbrum beween he varables n sysem followng a varaon affecng he sysem. 14

16 IV. Resuls Inerpreaons Table-2 repors descrpve sascs and par-wse correlaon. The emprcal evdence ndcaes ha volaly n ol prces s more han economc growh volaly. Energy consumpon s less volale han volaly n capalzaon and labor has less volaly compared o ol prces, economc growh, energy consumpon and capalzaon. The Jarque-Bera es s also appled o es wheher he varables have normal dsrbuon or no. The resuls are repored n Table-2 and we fnd ha null hypohess of normal dsrbuon s rejeced. Ths mples ha dsrbuon of all he varables s no ndependen and dencal. We consder he dsrbuon symmerc f dsrbuon of daa provdes a bell shaped curve. The resuls provded by Skewness and Kuross show he presence of poenal asymmery n he dsrbuon of me seres daa. Ths leads us for apply he asymmerc auoregressve dsrbuve lag-modellng (NARDL) for emprcal analyss raher han symmerc auoregressve dsrbuve lag-modellng (ARDL). The NARDL approach o conegraon s helpful n solvng he ssue of non-normaly by capurng he presence of asymmeres semmng n me seres daa (Shn e al. 2014). The par-wse correlaon analyss reveals he posve correlaon beween energy consumpon and economc growh. Ol prces are nversely correlaon wh economc growh. A posve correlaon exss beween capal (labor) and economc growh. Ol prces, capal and labor are posve correlaed wh energy consumpon. A posve correlaon occurs of capal and labor wh ol prces bu labor s negavely correlaed wh capal. Table-1: Descrpve Sascs and Par-wse Correlaon Varable ln Y ln E ln O ln K ln L Mean Medan Maxmum Mnmum Sd. Dev Skewness Kuross Jarque-Bera Probably ln Y ln E ln O ln K

17 ln L Tradonal un roo es such as DF (Dckey and Fuller, 1979), ADF (Dckey and Fuller, 1981), PP (Phlps and Perron, 1988), KPSS (Kwakowsk e al. 1992), ADF-GLS (Ello e al. 1996) and N-P (Ng-Perron, 2001) may provde ambguous emprcal resuls. These un roo ess may accep null hypohess when s false and vce versa due o her weak explanaory properes. Furhermore, hese un roo es gnore he mporance of srucural breaks occurrng n me seres daa. The presence of srucural breaks n he seres may nend radonal un roo ess o provde vague emprcal resuls and may cause a problem of un roo n he me seres. Ths ssue s solved by applyng ZA un roo es (Zvo-Andrews, 1992). Ths es provdes superor emprcal resuls conanng nformaon abou unknown sngle srucural break occurrng n he seres. The resuls are repored n Table-3. We fnd ha economc growh, energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labor have un roo problem n he presence of srucural breaks. These breaks are relaed o economc polces mplemened no energy marke o susan long-run economc growh. For example, n 1991, governmen of Paksan, naed economc reforms by nroducng a reachng package for expedng economc growh by usng free marke mechansm. The cenral pon of hese reforms was dsnvesmen n publc enerprses, deregulaons as well as denaonalzaon. These reforms encouraged prvae secor whch affeced oal facor producvy and hence economc growh (Looney, 1992). Afer 1 s dfferencng, all he varables have found saonary. Ths leads us o conclude ha economc growh, elecrcy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labor are negraed a I(1). Varable Table-3: Un Roo Analyss Z-A Un Roo Tes K-P Un Roo Tes T-sasc Tme Break T-sasc Prob. Tme Break ln Y (1) 1991Q IV (1) Q I ln E (2) 2007Q II (3) Q I ln O (1) 1998Q I (1) Q I ln K (2) 2008Q III (2) Q I ln L (1) 2006Q II (2) Q I lny (2) ** 1993Q III (2) * Q II ln E (2) * 2007Q IV (3) * Q I lno (1)* 2005Q III (1) * Q I 16

18 ln K (2)* 2006Q I (2) * Q I ln L (2) ** 2001Q II (2) * Q II Noe: * and ** show sgnfcance a 1% and 5% levels of sgnfcance respecvely. For esng wheher non-lneary s presen n he varables or no, we apply BDS es developed by Brock e al. (1988). Table-4 shows he resuls of he BDS es and we fne ha he null hypohess of..d (ndependenly and dencally dsrbued) has been rejeced. I mples he non-normal dsrbuon of daa whch shows he presence of nonlneary. We may noe ha all he varables have nonlnear behavor. The presence of nonlneary n he varables makes un roo analyss ambguous. Ths ssue s solved by applyng non-lnear un roo ess developed by Berens, (1997) and Breung (2000) un roo ess. The resuls are repored n Table-5 and we fnd ha all he varables are found non-saonary n he presence of non-lneary confrmed by Berens, (1997). Smlarly, he resuls of Breung (2000) un roo es corroboraed ha all he varables have un roo problem a level n he presence of nonlneary. Ths confrms ha all he varables are negraed a I(1) n he absence and presence of nonlneary. Table-4: BDS Tes for Non-Lneary Dmenson BDS Sasc Sd. Error Z-Sasc Prob. ln Y ln E ln O

19 ln K ln L Table-5: Nonlnear Un Roo Analyss Varables Berens Un Roo Tes Breung Un Roo Tes T-Sasc Prob. Value T-Sasc Prob. Value ln Y ln E ln O ln K ln L The presence of nonlneary nends us for applyng he nonlnear (asymmerc) ARDL approach developed by Shn e al. (2014) as all he varables have nonlnear behavor. In dong so, he general o specfc approach s appled followng Greenwood-Nmmo e al. (2013). The lag lengh for approprae model s chosen based on Akake Informaon Creron (AIC). The approprae lag lengh helps n provdng accurae esmaon and dynamc mulplers (Karaklds and Trachanas, 2012). The resuls of NARDL approach are repored n Table-6. We fnd ha energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labor elucdae economc growh by 76.58% (R 2 = ). Ths shows ha conrbuon of energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labor s by 76.58% and res (23.42%) s explaned by error erm n producon funcon. The absence of auocorrelaon n emprcal model s confrmed by The Durbn Wason (DW) es sasc whch s Ths mples ha consdered varables.e. energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labor n producon funcon explan economc growh whou auocorrelaon. Addonally, we fnd ha emprcal model has normal dsrbuon. There s no problem of seral correlaon and whe heeroscedascy. There s absence of auo-regressve condonal and funconal form of 18

20 emprcal s well consruced. Ths shows he relably and conssency of emprcal model n NARDL framework. In ARDL framework, emprcal resuls confrm ha calculaed F PSS sasc s sascally sgnfcan a 1% level of sgnfcance whch ndcaes ha upper crcal bounds s less calculaed F PSS sasc. Ths confrms he exsence of conegraon beween energy consumpon, ol prces, capal, labour and economc growh for he perod of 1985Q Q 4. The presence of asymmery n long-run and shor-run s nvesgaed by applyng Wald es. The accoun of nonlneary and asymmery s very mporan o be consdered whle esmang producon funcon whle sudyng assocaon beween energy consumpon, ol prces, capal, labour and economc growh. The -sasc of T BDM orgnaed by Banerjee e al. (1998) also corroboraes he presence of conegraon beween he varables a 1% level of sgnfcance. We apply NARDL F-sasc (F PSS ) developed by Shn e al. (2014) and fnd ha energy consumpon, ol prces, capal, labour and economc growh have long-run asymmerc conegraon n case of Paksan. I mples ha how much asymmeres and nonlneares are mporan whle nvesgang he producon funcon by consderng energy consumpon and ol prces are addonal deermnans. Long-run and shor-run asymmerc mpac of energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labour on economc growh s repored n Table-6. We fnd ha posve shock exs n energy consumpon has posve and sgnfcan mpac on economc growh. A negave shock n energy consumpon declnes economc growh nsgnfcanly. I mples ha an ncrease n energy consumpon s playng s role n smulang economc growh. We may conclude ha energy consumpon has posve effec on economc growh. Ths emprcal evdence s conssen wh exsng sudes such as Zaman e al. (2011), Ahmed e al. (2013), Ahmed e al. (2015), Shahbaz e al. (2016) who also repor ha energy consumpon enhances domesc producon and hence smulaes economc growh. Posve shock n ol prces declnes economc growh bu negave shock n ol prces ncrease economc growh. Ths shows ha rse n ol prces decreases economc growh and he mpac of posve and negave shock on economc shocks s accordng o our expecaons. Rse n ol prces affecs economc growh drecly and ndrecly. Drecly, ol prces rse ransms o cos of producon whch 19

21 decreases frms nvesmen acves and hence domesc producon s declned. Indrecly, ol prces rse affecs exchange rae and nflaon as well whch n resulng, affecs economc acvy and hence economc growh (Shahbaz e al. 2017a). Ths emprcal evdence s conssen wh exsng sudes n energy economcs leraure such as Jmnez-Rodrguez and Snchez (2005) and Al (2016) for OECD counres, Farzanegan and Markward (2009), Behmr and Mnaso (2013) for Sub-Saharan counres, F e al. (2016) who conclude ha ol prces rse adversely affecs economc growh. Economc growh s posvely affeced by posve shock sems n capal and negave shock n capal has negave effec on economc growh. Ths shows ha posve shock sems n capal smulaes fscal nvesmen n nfrasrucure developmen for long-run. Ths ncreases domesc producon and hence, long-run susanable economc growh. On conrary, negave shock occurrng n capal declnes economc growh by lowerng domesc producon. Overall, capal s posvely lnked wh economc growh. Smlarly, exsng sudes n leraure such as Meha (2009), Sahoo and Dash (2009) for Inda and Sahoo e al. (2010) for Chna and Shahbaz e al. (2017b) for Inda also repor ha capal plays s sgnfcan role n smulang economc acvy whch speeds up economc growh. The asymmerc relaonshp beween labour and economc growh s neresng and sascally sgnfcan. Economc growh s posvely and negavely affeced by posve and negave shocks sem n labour. The esmaes of labour for posve and negave on economc growh are and respecvely. I mples ha rse n labour force conrbues o economc growh sgnfcanly by ncreasng consumpon and nvesmen acves. Paksan s young populaon s almos 60% whch shows he economc dependence of Paksan s economy on young populaon. In such crcumsances, any adverse shock n labour force wll no only decrease domesc producon bu also dsmanle economc growh. These emprcal fndngs are conssen wh Shahbaz e al. (2017) bu conrary wh Ismal e al. (2015) for Inda and Malaysa respecvely. In shor run analyss (Table-6), we fnd ha posve shock sems n energy consumpon has posve and sgnfcan mpac on economc growh (coeffcen s ). A lagged dfferenced posve shock sems n energy consumpon harms economc growh by and s sascally sgnfcan a 1% level. Dfferenced posve shock n ol prces has negave mpac on economc growh bu sascally sgnfcan a 1% level. Economc growh s posve 20

22 affeced by lagged dfferenced posve shock n ol prces a 1% level of sgnfcance. Economc growh s posvely smulaed by dfferenced posve shock n capal. A posve shock n capal conrbues o economc growh by % bu lagged dfferenced posve shock n capal declnes economc growh by These resuls are sascally sgnfcan a 1% level respecvely. Dfferenced and lagged dfferenced posve shock sem n labour have negave and sascally sgnfcan effec on economc growh. Ths shows ha n shor run, rse n labour force wll no conrbue n economc growh due o msmach beween supply and demand for labour bu adjuss n long run. The relably of emprcal fndngs s confrmed by applyng CUSUM and CUSUMsq. The CUSUM and CUSUMsq are lyng beween crcal bounds a 5% level whch shows ha emprcal resuls are relable and conssen (see Fgure-1). Table-6: NARDL Emprcal Analyss Varables Coeffcen Sd. Error T-Sasc Consan * (0.4112) [5.7104] lny * (0.0456) [ ] ln E * (0.0354) [4.7314] ln E (0.0552) [ ] ln O * (0.0041) [ ] ln O ** (0.0038) [2.5275] ln K * (0.0150) [3.7362] ln K * (0.0086) [ ] ln L * (0.0834) [3.7519] ln L * (0.4717) [ ] ln 1 ln 1 Y * (0.0770) [7.1185] E * (0.0866) [5.6859] ln K * (0.0230) [6.2888] ln O * (0.0079) [ ] ln 1 ln 1 ln 1 ln 1 ln 1 ln 1 L * (3.6589) [ ] Y * (0.0753) [2.8141] L * (3.9859) [3.1512] K * (0.0262) [ ] E * (0.0875) [ ] O * (0.0085) [2.8241] 21

23 Long-run Resuls and Dagnosc Analyss L ln * (0.0753) E L ln E (0.2104) W L E * (0.2239) L ln O * (0.0100) L ln O * (0.0124) W L O * (0.0161) L ln K * (0.0385) L ln K * (0.0251) W L K * (0.0493) L ln L * (0.2321) L ln L * (1.2515) W L L * (1.3919) R Norm SC HET ARCH FF T BDM * FPSS Nonlnear * AIC SIC Hannan-Qunn Noe: 99% upper (lower) bound wh k = 4 s 5.06 (3.74). 95% upper (lower) bound wh k = 6 s 4.43 (3.15). The superscrp + and - denoe posve and negave cumulave sums, respecvely. and are he esmaed long-run coeffcens assocaed wh posve and negave changes, respecvely, defned by = /. W represens he Wald es for he null of long-run symmery for respecve varable.,,, and denoe LM ess for seral correlaon, normaly, funconal form and Heeroscedascy, respecvely. S.E sands for sandard errors. * and ** ndcae sgnfcance a 1% and 5% levels, respecvely. 22

24 1.2 Fgure-1: Sably Dagnoscs CUSUM of Squares 5% Sgnfcance CUSUM 5% Sgnfcance Fgure-2: Dynamc Mulplers wh LR and SR Asymmeres a). Energy Consumpon b). Ol Prces c). Capal d). Labor Noe: Black (doed) lne show posve (negave) mpac whle red lnes show asymmery and confdence (upper and lower) bands. We apply mulple dynamc adjusmens and resuls are shown n he plos he cumulave dynamc mulplers (see Fgure-2). We fnd ha hese resuls ndcae he paern of adjusmen n producon funcon n s new long-run equlbrum due posve and negave shocks sem n energy consumpon, ol prces, capal and labour force respecvely. The bass of dynamc 23

25 mulplers for emprcal esmaon s he bes fed NARDL foolng Akake nformaon creron (AIC). The connuous black lne and dashed black lne shows posve and negave capurng he adjusmens of producon funcon o posve and negave shocks n ndependen varables a gven forecas horzons. The connuous red lne (asymmerc curve) ndcaes he dfference beween he dynamc mulplers lnked wh posve and negave shocks.e. m h m h. The doed red lnes (lower and upper bands) a a 95% confdence nerval ndcaes he sascal sgnfcance a 95% confdence nerval of asymmery a any horzon h. The resuls are repored n Fgure-2. We fnd ha energy consumpon (overall) conrbues o economc growh va smulang economc acvy and ncreasng domesc producon. From nal pon, mpac of posve shock sems n energy consumpon has domnan effec on economc growh compared o negave shock n energy consumpon. On smlar lnes, asymmerc response o shocks n energy consumpon s sascally sgnfcan. The lnkages beween ol prces and economc growh s negave. Ths ndcaes ha posve shock n ol prces domnanly dsmanle economc growh by lowerng economc acvy alhough, negave shocks n ol prces ncreases economc growh bu n less magnude. Ol prces rse reards economc growh as role of posve sems n ol prces domnaes ha of negave shocks n ol prces on economc growh for long-run ( vs , Table-6). Capal conrbues economc growh sgnfcanly. I shows ha posve shock n capal has domnang posve effec on economc growh compared o declne n economc growh due o negave shock n capal ( vs , Table-6). Lasly, economc growh s posvely and negavely affeced by posve and negave shocks n labour bu negave shock n labour has negave and domnan effec on economc growh ha of posve shock n labour. Ths shows ha due o declne n economc acvy frms are ready o fre people whch adversely affecs domesc producon and hence economc growh. In recovery perod, frms are relucan o hre people due o unceran fuure. Tha s why posve shock n labour even conrbues o economc growh bu n less magnude. V. Concluson and Polcy Implcaons The presence of four compeng hypoheses on energy-growh nexus s always a key of neres and research for academcan, praconers and polcy makers. These emprcal fndngs are dverse due o use of dfferen daa for dfferen counres, daa sample and economercal approaches. The ssue s sll under consderaon for effcen emprcal analyss o provde 24

26 comprehensve polcy mplcaon o aan susanable economc developmen by mplemenng approprae energy polcy. In dong so, we employed producon funcon o examne relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc growh by addng ol prces as addonal facor affecng economc growh and energy consumpon as well. The nonlnear un roo es s appled o confrm wheher varables are negraed a I(0) or I(1). Consderng he mporance of asymmeres n me seres daa, we apply he nonlnear ARDL esng approach o es he asymmerc effec of energy consumpon along wh ol prces, capal and labour on economc growh n Paksan. The emprcal evdence confrms he presence of symmerc and asymmerc conegraon beween energy consumpon, ol prces, capal, labour and economc growh over he perod of 1985Q I -2016Q IV. Furhermore, rse n energy consumpon (posve shock) adds o economc growh va smulang economc acvy and energy consumpon negave shock reards economc growh nsgnfcanly. Rse (posve shock) and fall (negave shock) n ol prces declne and smulae economc growh. The posve shocks n energy consumpon has subsanal effec on domesc producon and hence, on economc growh. Ths enals he mporance of effcen use of exsng energy sources for susanable long-run economc growh. In such suaon, explorng new energy sources s also an approprae soluon o smulae economc acvy. Any reducon n energy supply wll declne domesc oupu confrmed by negave shock n energy consumpon. Ths suggess governmen for mananng a sable energy consumpon raher o reduce energy supply. In dong so, governmen should encourage for he use of energy effcen and savngs echnologes no only n producon acves bu also n consumpon acves by usng proper elecronc and prn meda campagns. A negave relaonshp beween ol prces and economc growh reveals he mporance of usng alernave sources of energy. Paksan ol marke s drely lnked wh nernaonal marke whch hs domesc ol prces f any shock n ol prces a nernaonal level. Paksan s an ol dependen counry and huge amoun of foregn reserves s consumed o mpor ol for meeng domes energy demand. Ths drecly hs o exchange rae and weaken local currency whch ncreases local nflaon. Ths enals he dre need o explore new energy sources such as ol whch no only wll save foregn reserves bu also reduce dependence on mpored ol. Ths amoun of foregn reserves can be used o mpor energyeffcen and envronmen frendly echnology o smulae domesc producon. 25

27 The posve and negave effec of posve and negave shock of capal on economc growh reveals he mporance of capal for domesc producon. Ths enals ha capal plays a val role n smulang economc acvy. Ths shows ha governmen should pay more focus n esablshng nfrasrucure developmen for achevng long-run susanable economc growh. There s a dre need of undersandng capal-growh nexus for polcy makers and praconers. A conssen mprovemen n capal wll speed-up economy by rasng economc growh and declne n capal mprovemen wll reard economc growh confrmed by negave shock n capal. In such crcumsances, governmen should focus o ncrease R & D expendures mprovng qualy of capal va conducng research for nroducng energy effcen capal whch no only enhances domesc producon bu also saves energy for fuure generaons and of course, for susanable economc growh. Fnally, posve shock sems n labour leads economc growh. Ths shows ha whou labour susanable economc growh n long run s mpossble as negave shock n labour declnes economc growh. Therefore, governmen should nvesmen n labour force o aan long run economc growh by mprovng her echncal effcency va echncal educaon. Agrculure secor absorbs major poron of labour force and adopon of echnology n agrculure enhances s producon much easer. In such suaon, governmen should open echncal level a own level o educae farmers.e. relaed labour force for usng energy-savng and growh-smulang echnology for agrculure producon. Ths model can also be mplemened n ndusral secor afer careful and comprehensve polcy desgn. Improvemens n echncal educaon no only helps labour force o ncrease her producvy bu also saves energy wasage and envronmen from degradaon. References Abosedra, S. and Baghesan, H. (1991). New evdence on he causal relaonshp beween Uned Saes energy consumpon and gross naonal produc. Journal of Energy and Developmen, 14, Adom, P. K. (2013). Tme-varyng analyss of aggregae elecrcy demand n Ghana: A rollng analyss. OPEC Energy Revew, 37, Ahmed, M., Raz, K., Khan, A. M. and Bb, S. (2015). Energy consumpon economc growh nexus for Paksan: Tamng he unamed. Renewable and Susanable Energy Revews, 52, Ahmed, M., Raz, K., Khan, A. M. and Bb, S. (2015). Energy consumpon economc growh nexus for Paksan: Tamng he unamed. Renewable and Susanable Energy Revews 52,