CCS and Biomass role in Europe - reflections from the Pathways project

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1 CCS and Biomass role in Europe - reflections from the Pathways project Filip Johnsson Department of Energy and Environment filip.johnsson@chalmers.se Chalmers Energy Conference January 26-27, 2011

2 Book reporting from the Pathways project The book summarizes research which has been carried out in the AGS project Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems during its first period ( ).

3 Book on Methods and Models used in the Pathway project

4 European pathways project - aim To evaluate pathways to sustainable European energy systems with a focus on the stationary energy system and the time period up to the year 2050 Strong reductions in CO 2 emissions (and other GHGs) 85% to 2050 Maintain Security of Supply Maintain competitiveness To consider the existing energy infrastructure (turnover in capital stock). To assess key (bridging) technologies and systems (including energy efficiency measures)

5 To consider the existing energy infrastructure

6 ...including the global fossil fuel infrastructure

7 20 key results 1. There are several pathways towards a sustainable energy system 2. Two pathways are proposed 3. All technologies and measures are required to follow the pathways 4. Both pathways strengthen security of supply 5. Energy efficiency must be implemented 6. Biomass holds promises as a source of fuels for near term bridging technologies 7. Global fossil fuel resources are too large this is the challenge! 8. CCS is a key technology to meet the fossil fuel challenge 9. etc

8 CO 2 Capture, Transport & Storage (CCS)

9 EU-ETS breakdown by sector < 1,000 installations, 80% EU-ETS

10 Biomass and CCS example electricity generation Results from a regionalized study, i.e. down to each member state CCS depends on possibilities for regional storage infrastructure Biomass depends on development of fuel supply Phase out of existing power plant infrastructure Development of bridging technologies

11 Regionalized variations in analysis (individual member state base) Existing power plant infrastructure (Databases) Wind high-land, low land, on-shore, off shore etc) Lignite availability/production levels Transmission capacities and investments in new lines CO 2 storage costs CO 2 transport costs Biomass cost-supply curves

12 The two Pathways Market pathway: price on CO2 emissions (CO2 cap) the main policy instrument, and reflecting previous experiences on the difficulty of implementing energy efficiency measures Policy pathway: assumes targeted policies on energy efficiency and RES based energy to be successfully implemented (in addition to CO2 cap).

13 Electricity generation [TWh] Chalmers University of Technology Pathway for EU-27 (plus Norway) Market : 30% CO 2 emission reduction by 2020 and 85% by /t CO2 2010, about 40 /t CO2 by 2030 and about 80 /t by Hard coal CCS 3500 New Gas 3000 biomass & waste Wind Lignite CCS 2500 Gas New Hard coal New Lignite Nuclear reinvestments + expansion 2000 Hard coal New Wind 1500 Lignite New Biomass & waste Others 1000 Nuclear 500 Hydro Hydro replacements Year

14 Electricity generation [TWh] Chalmers University of Technology Pathway for EU-27 (plus Norway) Policy : 40% CO 2 emission reduction by 2020 and 85% by /t CO2 2010, about 25 /t CO2 by 2030 and about 50 /t by 2045 Green certificate price /MWh biomass & waste Wind New Gas New Hard coal Lignite CCS Hard coal CCS 2500 Gas New Lignite Nuclear reinvestments Hard coal Lignite New Wind New Biomass & waste Others Nuclear Nordic Demand Hydro replacements Hydro Year

15 Distribution of CCS Market Policy Total captured : 24.2 Gton CO 2 Total captured : 15.2 Gton CO 2 Hard coal CCS Lignite CCS Lignite & Hard coal CCS Hard coal CCS Lignite CCS Lignite & Hard coal CCS Numbers: captured in Mton 220 Numbers: captured in Mton

16 Interconnector cables, existing and new (in 2030) Existing cables New cables 0.1 New cables in GW by 2030 Policy scenario, 27.6 GW Market scenario, 17.8 GW

17 Electricity generation [TWh] Chalmers University of Technology Northern Europe - Policy biomass & waste New Gas Demand New Hard coal Nuclear reinvestments 350 Gas Wind 300 Hard coal New Biomass & waste 250 Nuclear New Wind 200 Hydro replacements Hydro Year

18 Electricity generation [TWh] Chalmers University of Technology Eastern Europe - Policy Demand Hard coal CCS 400 Gas New Gas Lignite CCS Nuclear reinvestments 300 Hard coal New Hard coal New Lignite New Biomass & waste 200 Lignite 100 Nuclear Hydro replacements Hydro Year

19 Electricity generation [TWh] Chalmers University of Technology Western Europe - Policy Demand Hard coal CCS 1500 Wind Gas New Lignite biomass & waste New Gas New Hard coal New Biomass & waste Lignite CCS Nuclear reinvestments Hard coal New Wind 1000 Lignite 500 Nuclear Hydro replacements Hydro Year

20 Electricity generation [TWh] Chalmers University of Technology Western Europe - Market 2500 Demand 2000 Hard coal CCS Wind New Gas Lignite CCS 1500 Gas biomass & waste New Lignite New Hard coal Nuclear reinvestments + expansion 1000 Hard coal Lignite New Wind New Biomass & waste 500 Nuclear Hydro replacements Hydro Year

21 Summary A great challenge to transform the energy system Yet, an 85% emission reduction possible at less than t/co 2 in stationary sector But, we need all technologies and measures All options must be considered Regional variations in conditions

22 Summary Global fossil fuel resources are too large this is the challenge! CCS is a key technology to meet the fossil fuel challenge Facilitates fossil fuel dependent economies to agree on binding climate targets Fits with electrification of transport sector Challenge to establish integrated transport and storage infrastructure Biomass holds promises as a source of fuels for near term bridging technologies Generates carbon based fuels, which is the bases for much of present day energy technology Efficient conversion processes must be developed GHG savings must be analyzed Stationary energy system: 85% emission reduction possible at less than t/co 2