Units: USD / million Btu (left) Henry Hub NBP Japan LNG average Platts JKMTM

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1 LNG 9 IEEJ/CNPC Institute of Energy Economics, Japan All rights reserved Million tonnes Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Japan Asia Pacific Europe NA ME Africa Source: IEEJ, July

2 Units: USD / million Btu (left) Henry Hub NBP Japan LNG average Platts JKMTM Source: US EIA and IEA (US$/bbl) Continued upswing in prices Price surge after MENA Price rise unders geopolitical Euro Zone crisis hit oil price Brent Impact of ISIS 90 WTI Price drop under Euro Supply-demand softening and OPEC decision to leave price fall Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Source: NYMEX data, etc. 52 4

3 LNG Million tonnes Supply from Atlantic Projects under planning Projects with SPA/HOA Existing Projects High demand case Low demand case HOA/SPA LNG 6 53

4 IEEJ 2015年11月掲載 禁無断転載 2015ᖺ11 3 ᮏ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊 ᡤ ᑠᒣሀ ᅜLNG ฟ䜈䛾ᮇᚅ LNG ฟィ 䛿䚸 ィ䛷2൨䝖䞁䜢㐶䛛䛻 ᅇ䜛 䛺つᶍ 䛭䛾䛖䛱䚸ᨻᗓ ฟチ 䜢ᚓ䛯 㔞䛿8000 䝖䞁 FERC䛻䜘䜛ᘓタチ 䜢ᚓ䛯 㔞䜒5000 䝖䞁 LNG exports projects in North America US natural gas production outlook Source䠖EIA 7 Source: FERC; DOE 2015ᖺ11 3 ᮏ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊 ᡤ ᑠᒣሀ ᮾ䝅䝧䝸䜰䞉䝃䝝䝸䞁䛾䜺䝇㛤 ィ Sakhalin - Khabarovsk Vladivostok Gas P/L䠄Existing䠅 Chayanda Gas Field Sakhalin 1 Kovykta Gas Field Sakhalin 3 Sakhalin 2 3rd Train Vladivostok LNG China-Russia PL gas deals Russia䡚DPRK䡚 ROK Gas P/L 䠄Source䠅 Prepared by IEEJ based on Eastern Gas Program of Gazprom 54 8

5 LNG LNGPL LNG LNG? LNG LNG8000 LNG LNG? LNG Gas on gas competition pricing Hybrids Indexation Domestic Hubs in Asia Henry Hub, NBP Spot LNG Oil Other fuels (Electricity, Coal) Advantages Possible to reflect regional market balance Already available Possible lower prices at high oil price period Already available Possibly the quickest solution through modification of slope, S-curve, etc. Rational for power generation Disadvantages Not yet available Higher volatility Higher volatility Asia market balance not reflected Higher volatility Limited liquidity (so far) Gas market balance not reflected Lack of power market liquidity JCC LNG

6 JCC HHLNG G / /LNG JERA JCCJCC LNG (1,000 tonne) (%) 90, ,000 70, ,000 50, ,000 30, , , LNG for Power LNG for City gas Share of gas Source: Prepared by the author 56 12

7 FY2010 FY2013 FY2030 Million KLOE Million KLOE Million KLOE Oil MBD) MBD) MBD) 30 LPG Coal Gas Nuclear Renewable Total Source: Prepared by Data from METI LNG TEPCO Chubu Ele. Tokyo Gas Osaka Gas Kansai Ele. Tohoku Ele. Kyushu Ele. Toho Gas Chugoku Ele. Others FY2012 FY2010 (1,000 tonnes) Source: Prepared by the author 14 57

8 PL 4,795km LNG 36 Source: IEEJ Amendment 1999 Amendment 2003 Amendment Market opening Eligible consumer >2 million m3/y >1 million m3/y Liberalized scope Abt. 45% Abt. 50% >0.5 million m3/y >0.1 million m3/y (2007 onward) 53% -> Abt. 60% (2007 onward) TPA Pipeline Negotiated Regulated for the big 4 utilities Regulated for all utilities LNG terminal Not applicable Not applicable Negotiated Source: IEEJ

9 Basic Problem Committee Strategic Policy Committee Electr icity Legal revision Electricity Systems Reform Subcommittee Legal revision Legal Revision? Full retail deregulation Legal unbundling of the electricity transmission and distribution sector Gas Gas System Reform Subcommittee Legal Revision? Full retail deregulation Legal unbundling of 3 big companies : (1), (2) 200, (3) : (1), (2), (3), (4) Source: IEEJ LNG

10 Operating costs Cost of LNG and LPG Personnel expenses Repair costs Taxes Depreciation Other costs Non-operating cost Calorific adjustment provision net increase Corporation taxes, local inhabitant taxes profit The cost allocation by criteria LNG cost LNG storage cost LNG transfercost LNG gasification cost LNG calorific adjustment cost Pipeline costs Metering costs Billing costs Maintenance cost Service cost Other costs The cost allocation by criteria Cost for small-volume group Cost for large-volume wholesale supply group Transportation supply cost The cost allocation of cost for small volume group by criteria Cost by standard service provision Cost by optional service provision Consumer group Consumer group Consumer group Commodity Basic Commodity Basic Commodity Basic Price list Price list Price list Price list Price list Price list Source: METI 40%plus LNG LNG LNG LNG LNG LNGLNG お問い合わせ