SOLUTIONS. New Clear Free

Transcription

1 New Clear Free SOLUTIONS The purpose of New Clear Free Solutions is to: provide energy oversight to the public and official decision makers using objective scientific, regulatory and financial information. The objective of New Clear Free Solutions is to: help ensure safe, affordable, and sustainable energy solutions for the public and environment. IF YOU FOCUS ON THE PROBLEM, YOU CAN T SEE THE SOLUTION. NEVER FOCUS ON THE PROBLEM.

2 Official Decision Makers

3 Public

4 Technical Barriers? NO

5 Public VS Private Investment? Canada s Renewable Energy Resource Are Worth Billions of Dollars per year FOREVER. Significant New Source of Revenue for Provinces with No Fossil Fuel Resources. Revenue Replacement for Provinces that Rely on Fossil Fuel Revenue. MOST IMPORTANT DECISION!!!!!!!!!! Room for Private Operations (Community Energy Projects, ect)

6 Policy Options? 1. Carbon Tax 2. Cap and Trade 3. Regulation/Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 4. Technology Subsidies 5. Long Term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) 6. Best parts of All of the Above

7 Carbon Tax and Investment Plan (CTIP) 1. Tax Carbon and Publicly Invest In Renewable Energy 2. Reinvest Return on investment (PPA) in Renewable Energy 3. Repeat Until Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is Reached

8 MWH/Year When Stage 2, 100% Renewable energy, is achieved: All of the generation technology will be owned by the public debt free Low Operations and Maintenance Cost (O&M) Essentially zero fuel cost 1000 s of Jobs Generating approximately $2 Billion per year for New Brunswick in interest Economy Wide Carbon Tax $15-$30 /Ton Public Investment Jobs Social Policy $ $ MWh Stage 1 95% RPS Hydro Geothermal Bio CHP Wind Natural Gas Pumped Storage Storage (Tesla Powerwall) 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 Capacity 1021 MW 644 MW 489 MW 2750 MW 1300 MW 100 MW 1400 MW Stage 1 95% RPS Energy Biomass CHP 6% Geothermal 24% Gas C/C 5% Existing Hydro 14% Integrated Resource Plan Wind 45% Hydro 6% Reinvestment $/MWh= PPA-O&M UNBSJ Professor of Economics, Dr. Rob Moir. The concept of reinvesting in environmentally-friendlier energy production and energy efficiency to create a compound interest effect is founded economic theory. As such this policy should be considered by all provinces and not only New Brunswick. $70/MWh Economic Policy 10,000,000 Environment Policy 0 Year Stage 1 95% Electricty Renewable Portfolio Standard Stage 2 100% Rewnewable Energy Renewable Portfolio Standard 2036 $30 Per Ton Accumulated MWH Per Year Including Existing Hydro 2045 $20 Per Ton Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2055 $15 Per Ton Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2056 $30 Per Ton 20% Increase in Capital Cost Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2075 $15 Per Ton 20% Increase in Capital Cost Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2075 $15 Per Ton 20% Decrease in Capital Cost Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro $15 Per Ton Accumulated MWh Per Year Including Existing Hydro Without ReInvestment

9 Renewable Portfolio Standard

10 Carbon Tax

11 Public Investment The investment portion of the CTIP has two parts, both which are necessary to take advantage of compound interest. The first step creates an investment fund called RenewNB and uses the Carbon Tax as a Public investment into renewable energy. The second is to keep reinvesting the revenue generated from the renewable energy, until the policy objective is reached. The first step creates simple interest, and the second step creates compound interest. The first part of understanding compound interest is that whomever makes the investment is who earns the interest. The two options are public investment or private investment. If the public invests then they earn the interest, and if private industry invests then they will earn the interest. The CTIP uses the carbon tax as a public investment into renewable energy, because it is in the publics interest to do so. This first step will create simple interest.

12 Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE)

13 Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE)

14 Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE)

15 Wind LCOE (PPA)

16 Step 1 Investment Only

17 Step 2 Reinvestment

18 Step 2 Reinvestment

19 MWh/Year 80,000,000 Sensitivity Analysis Carbon Price Parliamentary Budget Office April 2016 (Revenue Neutral) $100/Ton 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Target 1 100% Renewabe Electricity MWh Per Year Target 2 100% Renewable Energy MWh Per Year $100 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $30 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $100 Per Ton MWh/Year Investement Only $30 Per Ton MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton MWh/Year Investement Only

20 MWh/Year Sensitivity Analysis LCOE 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Target 1 100% Renewabe Electricity MWh Per Year Target 2 100% Renewable Energy MWh Per Year $15 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton LCOE $90 MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton $50 LCOE MWh/Year CTIP

21 MWh/Year Sensitivity Analysis Capital Cost 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Target 1 100% Renewabe Electricity MWh Per Year Target 2 100% Renewable Energy MWh Per Year $15 Per Ton 25% Decreased Capital Cost MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton 50% Increase Capital Cost MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton 25% Decreased Capital Cost MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton 50% Increase Capital Cost MWh/Year Investement Only

22 MWh/Year Sensitivity Analysis Capacity Factor 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Target 1 100% Renewabe Electricity MWh Per Year Target 2 100% Renewable Energy MWh Per Year $15 Per Ton.45 Capacity Factor MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton.25 Capacity Factor MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton.45 Capacity Factor MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton.25 Capacity Factor MWh/Year Investement Only

23 MWh/Year 80,000,000 Sensitivity Analysis Lifespan 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Target 1 100% Renewabe Electricity MWh Per Year Target 2 100% Renewable Energy MWh Per Year $15 Per Ton 30 Year Lifespan MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton 20 Year Lifespan MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton 15 Year Lifespan MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton Non Capital Cost MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton 30 Year Lifespan MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton 20 Year Lifespan MWh/Year Investement Only

24 MWh/Year Sensitivity Analysis Decreasing Carbon 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Target 1 100% Renewabe Electricity MWh Per Year Target 2 100% Renewable Energy MWh Per Year $15 Per Ton MWh/Year CTIP $15 Per Ton MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton Decreasing Carbon Tax Revenue MWh/Year Investement Only $15 Per Ton Decreasing Carbon Tax Revenue MWh/Year CTIP

25 MWH/Year Year Technology Type Integrated Resource Plan 2016 wind 2017 wind 2018 wind 2019 wind 2020 wind 2021 wind 2022 wind 2023 Hydro 2024 Hydro 2025 Hydro 2026 Pump Storage 2027 Geothermal 2028 Biomass CHP 2029 wind 2030 Storage 2031 wind 2032 Storage 2033 wind 2034 wind 2035 Gas C/C 2036 Gas C/C 2037 Geothermal 2038 Geothermal 2039 Geothermal 2040 Biomass CHP 2041 Biomass CHP 2042 wind 2043 Gas C/C 2044 Biomass CHP 2045 Geothermal 2046 wind 2047 Storage 2048 Geothermal 2049 Geothermal 2050 Wind 2051 Wind 2052 Storage 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Year Stage 1 95% Electricty Renewable Portfolio Standard Stage 2 100% Rewnewable Energy Renewable Portfolio Standard 2036 $30 Per Ton Accumulated MWH Per Year Including Existing Hydro 2045 $20 Per Ton Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2055 $15 Per Ton Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2058 $10 Per Ton Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2056 $30 Per Ton 20% Increase in Capital Cost Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2075 $15 Per Ton 20% Increase in Capital Cost Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro 2075 $15 Per Ton 20% Decrease in Capital Cost Accumulated MWH Per Year Inc Existing Hydro $15 Per Ton Accumulated MWh Per Year Including Existing Hydro Without ReInvestment $30 Per Ton Accumulated MWh Per Year Including Existing Hydro Without ReInvestment

26 Mix Yearly Resolution Biomass CHP 6% 2,500,000 Generation Mix Stacked Monthly Resolution Using Actual Wind and Hyrdo Flows Geothermal 24% 2,000,000 1,500,000 Wind 45% 1,000,000 Gas C/C 5% 500,000 Existing Hydro 14% Hydro 6% 0 April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March Demand Wind Hydro Geo Bio Natural Gas Wind Hydro Existing Hydro Gas C/C Geothermal Biomass CHP Wind New Hydro Existing Hydro Gas C/C Geother mal Biomass CHP Storage MWh/Year 8,402,586 1,056,342 2,700, ,014 4,432,882 1,071, Pump Storage Total MWh 18,574,87 8 Firm Capacity NA Total Capacity NA % of Generation NA NA NA Capacity MW NA

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