climate analysis indicators tool [CAIT]

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1 climate analysis indicators tool [CAIT] MAJOR MILESTONES in the International Climate Change Regime COP 13 adopts the Bali Action Plan, establishing a two-track process for negotiating a post-2012 agreement. 30 Global CO 2 emissions, excluding land-use change and forestry (million tonnes) n Federation ratifies the Kyoto Protocol, triggering its entry into force in February estimated The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change is agreed to at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Convention enters into force in Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol to the U.N. Climate Convention First meeting of the Parties of the Kyoto Protocol takes place in Montreal, UNEP and WMO establish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which produce regular scientific and technical assessments on climate change The IPCC Second Assessment Report concludes that the balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on the global climate The IPCC Third Assessment Report finds stronger connections between human activities and the global climate system. The United States announces it will not become a Party to the Kyoto Protocol. Other signatories adopt the Marrakesh Accords, a set of detailed rules for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Data Sources & Notes: WRI, CAIT (2009). Total for 2007 estimated from IEA (2009a) and EIA (2009a). Text adapted from Box 1.1 in Baumert et al. (2005). W O R L D R E S O U R C E S I N S T I T U T E

2 GLOBAL EMISSIONS A relatively small number of countries produce the majority of human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions., the world s largest emitter, contributes approximately 19 percent of annual global emissions, just ahead of the United States (which contributes approximately 18 percent). Together, the top 25 emitters account for an estimated 80% of global emissions. This group includes an approximately equal number of developed (Annex I) and developing (non-annex I) countries. These countries also generally rank among the most populous countries and have large economies. Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries plus,, Japan plus -27 plus United States plus, Ukraine, S. Africa plus Indonesia, S. Korea, Australia plus Brazil,, Mexico plus rest of world ~173 countries 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Percent of Global GHG Emissions Number of Countries Data Source & Notes: WRI, CAIT (2009). Percent contributions are for year 2005 GHG emissions only. Moving from left to right, countries are added in order of their absolute emissions, with the largest being added first. Figures exclude emissions from land-use change and forestry and international bunker fuels. Adapted from Figure 2.3 in Baumert et al. (2005) % Annex I Non-Annex I (, Ukraine) (Japan,, Australia, Turkey) (Germany, U.K., Italy, France, Spain, Poland) European Union OECD (Mexico, South Korea) (,, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Argentina) OPEC (, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria) Top 25 Emitters by Organization (United States) Non-Parties to Kyoto circle size equals relative emissions total of entire organization or region, including those countries not in the top 25 emitters W O R L D R E S O U R C E S I N S T I T U T E Data Source & Notes: WRI, CAIT (2009). Top 25 emitters are based on 2005 total GHG emissions estimates (excluding land-use change and forestry and international bunker fuels). Adapted from Figure 2.4 in Baumert et al. (2005). 2

3 EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS Projections of long-term GHG emissions growth depend heavily on assumptions about critical factors such as economic and population trends and the rate of technology development and diffusion. Projections at the national level can be highly uncertain, and the uncertainties are especially acute in developing country economies, which tend to be more volatile and vulnerable to external shocks. The range in projections reflects both differing assumptions, for instance with respect to future policy choices, and substantial uncertainties, particularly regarding economic forecasts. Among the most widely cited emissions projections are those developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy. Under EIA s mid-range or reference case scenario, global emissions of CO 2 from the consumption of fossil fuels are projected to rise 30 percent over the period from Annex I Non-Annex I *million tonnes CO 2 Data Source & Notes: WRI calculations based on EIA, 2009b (reference case). Historic (1990) Current (2006) Projected (2025) 7,119* 14,028 14,369 15, PER CAPITA EMISSIONS Only a handful of the countries with the largest total emissions also rank among those with the highest per capita emissions. Estimates of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions per capita for the top 10 emitters and the top 10 per capita emitters for 2006 are shown to the right. However, for some countries, per capita emissions vary significantly when CO 2 from land-use change and forestry and non-co 2 gases are taken into account. Although per capita emissions are generally higher in wealthier countries, there are notable and diverse exceptions. Some middle-income developing countries, for instance, have per capita emission levels similar to those of richer industrialized economies. For the four highest per capita emitters - the gulf states of Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait - this is because these countries have relatively small populations, but produce GHG-intensive commodities for export. High per capita emissions are particularly relevant in countries with large populations and/or high rates of population growth. 22,141 15,738 Per capita emissions (metric tons of CO 2 ) Top 10 Per Capita Emitters Top 10 Total Emitters Both Per Capita CO 2 Emissions and Per Capita GDP for the Top Ten Total Emitters and Top Ten Per Capita Emitters, World Average: GDP per capita (Intl $, PPP) Qatar UAE Bahrain Kuwait Luxembourg Trinidad & Tobago $63,588 $51,586 $25,600 $45,152 $70,762 $21,115 $42,672 $32,175 $35,660 $21,372 Australia Saudi Germany Japan UK Arabia Mexico Brazil $12,797 $32,334 $31,041 $32,941 $4,524 $13,025 $8,745 $2,416 Data Source & Notes: WRI, CAIT (2009). Qatar GDP per capita estimate is for 2005; all other data presented are for

4 EMISSIONS INTENSITY CO [ 2 GDP ] Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions intensity the level of CO 2 emissions per unit of economic output varies widely across countries, reflecting differences in economic structure, energy efficiency, and fuel mix. For example, among the major emitters, CO 2 intensity varies almost sixfold from 204 tonnes per million international dollars (PPP) gross domestic product (GDP) in France, to 1,124 tonnes in Ukraine. Over time, intensity levels decline in most countries (see figure on right) because GDP usually increases at a faster rate than emissions, though emissions intensities are not directly correlated with changes in activity levels (GDP and population). Even in the event of major GDP changes, changes in intensity levels may be modest. Absolute emissions levels, on the other hand, are most strongly influenced by GDP shifts. When GDP rises, emissions also tend to rise correspondingly (see figure below). Because of this correlation, projections of carbon intensity tend to exhibit less uncertainty than absolute emissions forecasts. Change in Emissions Intensity, (Top 25 Emitters) Japan Brazil Germany United Kingdom Mexico Indonesia South Korea Italy -36.9% -24.6% -34.0% -22.2% -7.3% +6.9% -23.4% -21.8% -34.5% -7.7% +17.8% -17.5% -6.8% Australia France Ukraine Spain South Africa Turkey Saudi Arabia Poland Thailand Argentina Nigeria -11.0% +16.2% -22.1% -31.7% -3.8% -12.9% -1.8% +17.5% -51.1% +24.6% -8.9% -39.0% Data Source & Notes: WRI, CAIT (2009) using GDP data from World Bank (2009). Top 25 emitters based on 2005 total GHG emissions estimates (excluding land-use change and forestry and international bunker fuels). 150% 120% Change in GDP and CO 2 Emissions, Top 25 Emitters, Thailand 90% Indonesia Turkey 60% Saudi Arabia Brazil South Korea Spain Australia % Change in CO 2 Emissions % 30% Japan Mexico Argentina Italy -27 France Germany South Africa Nigeria UK 100% 150% 200% Poland 250% % Change in GDP, % Ukraine -30% circle size equals total CO 2 emissions in 2006 Annex I Non-Annex I -60% Data Sources & Notes: WRI, CAIT (2009) and World Bank (2009). Top 25 emitters based on 2005 total GHG emissions estimates (excluding land-use change and forestry and international bunker fuels). W O R L D R E S O U R C E S I N S T I T U T E 4

5 ENERGY INTENSITY Energy [ GDP ] CO FUEL MIX [ 2 Energy ] tonnes oil equivalent/ million int l $, (PPP) 194 World 26.8 Coal Oil 309 S. Africa 15.3 Natural Gas 289 Saudi Arabia Carbon Content of Fuels (Tons of Carbon per Terajoules Energy) Mexico Sources & Notes: IPCC, The carbon emissions factor for coal is based on anthracite coal. There are slightly different carbon contents for other grades of coal, such as coking (25.8), bituminous (25.8), and lignite (27.6). 188 S. Korea = 1% Coal Data Sources & Notes: Energy Intensity - WRI calculations based on energy data from IEA (2009b) and GDP data from World Bank (2009). Fuel Mix - WRI calculations, based on IEA (2009b). Fuel mix figure is adapted from Figure 5.2 in Baumert et al. (2005) Brazil Japan Petroleum Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other Renewables ENERGY INTENSITY (2006) AND FUEL MIX (2007) FOR SELECTED MAJOR EMITTERS Emissions intensity is a composite indicator of two other major factors contributing to a country s emissions profile: energy intensity and fuel mix. Energy intensity, or the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP, reflects both a country s level of energy efficiency and its overall economic structure, including the carbon content of goods imported and exported. An economy dominated by heavy industrial production, for instance, is more likely to have higher energy intensity than one where the service sector is dominant, even if the energy efficiencies within the two countries are identical. Likewise, a country that relies on trade to acquire (import) carbon-intensive goods will when all other factors are equal have a lower energy intensity than those countries that manufacture those same goods for export. Fuel mix refers to the carbon content of the energy consumed in a country. Coal has the highest carbon content, followed by oil and then natural gas (see graphic above). Accordingly, if two nations are identical in energy intensity, but one relies more heavily on coal than the other, its carbon intensity will be higher. The breakdown of fuel mixes, shown above for selected countries, varies widely and is highly correlated with countries natural endowments of coal, oil, natural gas, and hydropower capacity. Other renewables (which includes solar, wind, and geothermal) accounts for no more than 4 percent of total primary energy supply in any of the major emitting countries. 5

6 ENERGY & FUELS Consumption Japan 4% 7% 9% ROW 20% Top 5 17% 43% Sector Residential & Commercial 3% Other 11% Industry 18% Electricity 68% COAL The top 25 GHG emitting countries collectively account for approximately 92 percent of global coal consumption, production, and known reserves. Coal mining and use is highly concentrated. Five countries account for nearly three-quarters of worldwide consumption. Six countries the United States,,,, Australia, and South Africa contain 82 percent of global coal reserves and account for an equal share of coal production (BP, 2009). Unlike oil and to some extent natural gas, most coal is consumed domestically. Overall, approximately 18 percent of total world coal production is traded across national borders, though increased trade in coal is expected in the coming decades (IEA, 2009b). ROW 41% Top 5 23% 3% Japan 10% 6% 18% Sector Electricity 7% Residential & Commercial 11% Other 12% Industry 17% Transport 53% OIL Together, the top 25 GHG emitting countries account for 78 percent of oil consumption, 61 percent of production, and 51 percent of known oil reserves (BP, 2009). Oil consumption patterns are weakly correlated with reserves, which are heavily concentrated in the Middle East, and less geographically concentrated than other fuels. This is primarily due to two factors: (1) oil dominates transport, accounting for nearly 94 percent of the global energy consumed in that sector (IEA, 2009b) and (2) its tradability, with about 67 percent of global oil production being moved across borders through a welldeveloped global transit network of tanker fleets (BP, 2009). ROW 41% 3% Top 5 4% 22% 14% ROW=Rest of the World 16% Industry 24% Sector Transport 3% Other 10% Residential & Commercial 24% Electricity 39% NATURAL GAS With respect to natural gas, the top 25 GHG emitters account for 77 percent of global consumption, 67 percent of production, and 58 percent of gas reserves. As with oil, natural gas reserves are highly concentrated; 67 percent of known gas reserves are in just seven countries,, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, and Nigeria.,, and Qatar alone account for 53 percent (BP, 2009). Approximately half of all production and consumption takes place in the,, and, with the remainder widely dispersed geographically. Unlike oil, most natural gas is consumed domestically, although exports and imports are significant and growing. For example, in 2008, approximately 27 percent of global gas production was traded across borders (BP, 2009). Data Sources & Notes: All data are from BP (2009) and are year 2008 estimates, except fossil fuel consumption by sector, which are WRI calculations based on IEA (2009b) and are year 2007 estimates. Industry totals include direct fossil fuel combustion and non-energy uses (e.g., feedstock use in the petrochemical industry). Residential and commercial sector totals include agriculture. Other includes energy transformation and energy industries (e.g., oil and gas extraction). W O R L D R E S O U R C E S I N S T I T U T E 6

7 Production (Top five, as a percentage of global total) Selected Proved Fossil Fuel Reserves (as a percentage of global total) United States Coal 28.9% Oil 2.4% NG 3.6% Venezuela 7.9% Ukraine Coal 4.1% Oil 10.9% NG 16.0% Iraq Oil 9.1% Libya 3.5% Saudi Arabia Oil 21.0% NG 4.1% Nigeria Oil 2.9% NG 2.8% Coal Oil Natural Gas Coal Oil Natural Gas Australia 42.5% 18.0% 6.6% 5.8% 5.2% Saudi Arabia 13.1% 12.4% 7.8% 5.3% 4.8% reserves to production ratio, or the number of years known global coal reserves will last if production continues at 2008 rates reserves to production ratio, or the number of years known global oil reserves will last if production continues at 2008 rates 19.6% 19.3% 6.2% 5.7% 3.8% reserves to production ratio, or the number of years global known natural gas reserves will last if production continues at 2008 rates Coal 19.0% Oil 6.3% NG 23.4% 13.9% 7.1% Kazakhstan Coal 3.8% Oil 3.2% Kuwait Oil 8.1% UAE Oil 7.8% NG 3.5% Qatar NG 13.8% South Africa 3.7% Turkmenistan NG 4.3% Australia 9.2%

8 About CAIT The Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) is an information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by the World Resources Institute. CAIT provides a comprehensive and comparable database of greenhouse gas emissions data (including all major sources and sinks) and other climate-relevant indicators for over 185 countries. CAIT also features emissions projections, state emission inventories, and climate vulnerability and adaptation indicators. With powerful charting and graphing capabilities, CAIT can be used by decisionmakers for analyzing a wide range of climate-related data questions and to help support future policy decisions made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and in other fora. About WRI The World Resources Institute (WRI) is an environmental think tank that goes beyond research to find practical ways to protect the earth and improve people s lives. Our mission is to move human society to live in ways that protect Earth s environment and its capacity to provide for the needs and aspirations of current and future generations. References Baumert, K., T. Herzog, and J. Pershing Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available at: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. BP p.l.c. Available at: Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2009a. International Energy Statistics. Washington, DC: Department of Energy. Available at: IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8. EIA. 2009b. International Energy Outlook Reference Case: Table A10 - World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region. Washington, DC: Department of Energy. Available at: IEA (International Energy Agency). 2009a. CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009 edition). Paris, France: OECD/IEA, [2009]. Available at: IEA. 2009b. Energy Balances for OECD Countries and Energy Balances for non-oecd Countries (2009 editions). Paris, France: OECD/IEA, [2009]. Available at: iea.org/ieastore/statslisting.asp. IPCC Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Vol.2; Energy Module and Understanding the Common Reporting Framework. J.T. Houghton et al., eds. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC/OECD/IEA. Available at: WRI also gratefully acknowledges the providers of greenhouse gas emissions data included in the CAIT v.7.0 database: Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., A. doi /CDIAC/ Available at: cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2006.html. EIA International Energy Annual Washington, DC: Department of Energy. Available at: EPA (revised). Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases Washington, DC: Environmental Protection Agency. Available at: gov/climatechange/economics/international.html. EDGAR Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.0. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). Available at: ec.europe.eu. IEA CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2008 edition). Paris, France: OECD/IEA, [2008]. Available at: statslisting.asp. Text adapted from the WRI Publication Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy (Baumert et al ) Design by Casey Freeman. World Bank World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank, Development Data Group. Available at: publications.worldbank.org/ecommerce/catalog/ product?item_id= WRI, CAIT Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) version 7.0. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available at: W O R L D R E S O U R C E S I N S T I T U T E