Hydrogen in the future energy system. Future Gas workshop - 11th september 2018

Transcription

1 Hydrogen in the future energy system Future Gas workshop - 11th september 2018

2 Agenda Hydrogen demand in the future energy system 2050 Socioeconomic energy system analysis RE-fuel and RE-gas costs Hydrogen demand in Base and High Gas price scenarios Price-flexible hydrogen demand analysis Operation of electrolyser and hydrogen storage Supply and demand price of hydrogen Discussion 2

3 Future Danish potential? NG abatement Hydrogen demand in the future energy system Industry (feedstock, non-heat) Transport (direct or indirect) Heat (D.H., space, industry) Gas-to-power H2-production from green power H2-injection H2 in existing gas system +Gas to transport CO2-Methanisation (BiogasCO2, industryco2) +gas turbine or CCGT Biogas-methanisation H2 direct use (outside gas grid) Decarbonize existing H2-use Decarbonize steel or iron production H2 in oil refineries Decarbonize ammonia (NH3) H2 to Liquid fuel production (Biorefineries) - biomethanol, biodiesel, biogasoline, biokerosene H2 in transport -Cars, trucks, ships etc New ammonia (NH3) in transport (ships etc) D.H.: Waste heat from electrolysis and refineries H2 to high temperature processes micro CHP (fuel cell) Reversible electrolyser (with storage) Hydrogen production cost depends on: Total power demand (including H2 demand) FLH of the demand +storage options Transport cost of hydrogen or power H2 in new 3 grids H2 transport (onshore/offshore) to industry or refineries H2 export/import to other regions H2 to e.g. micro CHP (fuel cell)

4 Future Danish potential? NG abatement Hydrogen demand in the future energy system Industry (feedstock, non-heat) Transport (direct or indirect) Heat (D.H., space, industry) Gas-to-power H2-injection H2 in existing gas system +Gas to transport CO2-Methanisation (BiogasCO2, industryco2) +gas turbine or CCGT Biogas-methanisation H2 direct use (outside gas grid) H2 in new 4 grids Decarbonize existing H2-use Decarbonize steel or iron production H2 in oil refineries Decarbonize ammonia (NH3) H2 to Liquid fuel production (Biorefineries) - biomethanol, biodiesel, biogasoline, biokerosene H2 in transport -Cars, trucks, ships etc New ammonia (NH3) in transport (ships etc) H2 transport (onshore/offshore) to industry or refineries H2 export/import to other regions D.H.: Waste heat from electrolysis and refineries H2 to high temperature processes micro CHP (fuel cell) Reversible electrolyser (with storage) H2 to e.g. micro CHP (fuel cell) 2050 Socioeconomic energy system analysis

5 Agenda Hydrogen demand in the future energy system 2050 Socioeconomic energy system analysis RE-fuel and RE-gas costs Hydrogen demand in Base and High Gas price scenarios Price-flexible hydrogen demand analysis Operation of electrolyser and hydrogen storage Supply and demand price of hydrogen Discussion 5

6 Energy flows distric heating, power and transport (DK 2050) Base scenario Unit: PJ (except manure (in mio. tons)) Not in analysis yet +Gas-to-transport +Industry heat +Residential heating RE-gas vs RE-fuel Gas-to-power H2 Heat pumps 6 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 May 2018

7 Socioeconomic costs of RE-gas (DK 2050) Base scenario Today 7 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 May 2018

8 Socioeconomic costs of RE-fuels (DK 2050) Base scenario 8 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 May 2018

9 Renewable gas and fuel production (Denmark 2050) +Gas-to-transport Gas today Total: ~80 PJ (~25% H2) +Industry heat +Residential heating 50 PJ Total: ~160 PJ (~45% H2) +Gas-to-transport +Industry heat +Residential heating 20 PJ 20 PJ 9 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 May 2018

10 Danish hydrogen demand: PJ in 2050? PJ H2 70 Large uncertancy regarding final demand 40 High gas price scenario GCA Biomass restriction and CO2+fuel prices have significant influence 20 10? Base scenario DG Kilde: Energinet (2018), Systemperspektiv 2035 (dark blue) Future Gas preliminary calculations (light blue)

11 EU hydrogen demand: PJ in 2050? Up to 3100 TWh electrification towards 2050 in Europe Indirect electrification including H2 could make up to 1200 TWh power = ~4300 PJ power = PJ hydrogen? 11 Kilde: Eurelectric 2018, Decarbonization pathways European economy

12 Agenda Hydrogen demand in the future energy system 2050 Socioeconomic energy system analysis RE-fuel and RE-gas costs Hydrogen demand in Base and High Gas price scenarios Price-flexible hydrogen demand analysis Operation of electrolyser and hydrogen storage Supply and demand price of hydrogen Discussion 12

13 Future Danish potential? NG abatement Hydrogen demand in the future energy system Industry (feedstock, non-heat) Transport (direct or indirect) Heat (D.H., space, industry) Gas-to-power H2-injection H2 in existing gas system +Gas to transport CO2-Methanisation (BiogasCO2, industryco2) Biogas-methanisation +gas turbine or CCGT Cheap natural gas abetement? H2 direct use (outside gas grid) Decarbonize existing H2-use Decarbonize steel or iron production H2 in oil refineries Decarbonize ammonia (NH3) H2 to Liquid fuel production (Biorefineries) - biomethanol, biodiesel, biogasoline, biokerosene H2 in transport -Cars, trucks, ships etc New ammonia (NH3) in transport (ships etc) D.H.: Waste heat from electrolysis and refineries H2 to high temperature processes micro CHP (fuel cell) Reversible electrolyser (with storage) Flexibility value? Key focus in priceflexible hydrogen demand analysis H2 in new 13 grids H2 transport (onshore/offshore) to industry or refineries H2 export/import to other regions H2 to e.g. micro CHP (fuel cell)

14 Modeling of hydrogen demand and supply Power-to-gas (and gas-to-power) H2 to transport Flexible power demand Methane+CO2-price Gas grid Investment Electrolysis H2 H2 price < Methane+CO2-price District heating Power production (reversible electrolyser) Hydrogen storage Investment Investment Electrolysis H2 Power production (reversible electrolyser) Hydrogen storage Investment Price flexible hydrogen demand Hydrogen demand according to demand profile (with storage) H2 price + methanisation < Methane+CO2-price CO2/Biogas Methanisering Investment H2 demand profile H2 to transport CO2/ raw biogas 14 Minimization of the total investment and operation costs in the Balmorel model area (North west Europe)

15 H2-storage level Power price Operation of hydrogen storage H2 production at low power prices Storage optimized with yearly forecast horizon Storage level Power price

16 Power production / consumption MW Price Operation of electrolyser Reversible electrolyser oprates only at high power prices Hydrogen with fixed demand profile + power-to-gas Hydrogen with fixed demand profile Hydrogen with fixed demand profile + power-to-gas Value of power-to-gas Rev.Electrolyzer Power price (øre/kwh) Minimum bid price Rev.Electrolysis Electrolyzer Natural gas+co2-price 16

17 TWh New hydrogen demand produced by new green power 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 100% RE in hydrogen production However, new power production will depend on power market development 0,1 0, ,1 New production New consumption Solar - wind - hydro Bio and waste Fossil Uran H2 Power consumption Netto

18 Supply price of hydrogen H2 price (EUR/GJ) Power cost H2 supply price (Only H2 as power balance) Hydrogen price increases with higher demand Power-to-gas with low Full load hours ( h/year) => electrolyser costs has significant influence Electrolyser and storage costs 18 Revenue reversible electrolyser H2 production (PJ)

19 Demand price of hydrogen H2 price (EUR/GJ)? Natural gas+co2 Reversible electrolyser H2 to transport 2% H2-injection 10% H2-injection Payment willingness of hydrogen Baltic Pipe H2-injection? H2 supply price (Only H2 as power balance) H2 injection option could have high influence especially with high natural gas+co2-prices H2 production (PJ) 19

20 Demand price of hydrogen H2 price (EUR/GJ) Reversible electrolyser H2 to transport? Natural gas+co2 10% H2-injection CO2 or biogas methanisation? H2 supply price (Only H2 as power balance) Power to gas with low Full load hours => electrolyser costs has high influence H2 to industry? H2 production (PJ) 20

21 Supply price of hydrogen with other flex H2 price (EUR/GJ) H2 supply price (+batteries and thermal storage) H2 supply price (Only H2 as power balance) Other power flexibility (batteries and thermal storages) increases the H2 production price H2 production (PJ) 21

22 *) Green gas energy subsidy = Biogas subsidy environmental benifits Supply and demand of hydrogen H2 price (EUR/GJ) +Green gas energy subsidy*? Natural gas+co2 Cheaper natural gas abatement? H2-injection CO2 or biogas methanisation H2 supply price (+batteries and thermal storage) Only H2 as power balance Green gas subsidy could be influenced by H2-production costs H2 production (PJ) 22

23 Discussion Some questions: Key hydrogen demand to include in analysis (Future Gas)? H2 demand prices? Key technology costs? (electrolyser, wind/pv production, hydrogen storages ) H2 supply prices? Economic framework to support flexible hydrogen demand (and storage) Support schemes? RE-gas and RE-fuel? tarif and taxes? 23

24 Tak for opmærksomheden Kontakt: Morten Stryg, chefkonsulent