MODEL BIOREFINERY. The Biorefinery of the Present

Transcription

1 MODEL BIOREFINERY The Biorefinery of the Present Rio de Janeiro, November,

2 Agenda Introduction Definition Sucrose Production Platform GMO Units Preliminary Economics Conclusions Recommendations Final word 2

3 Introduction Presently, Sucrose is the only viable raw material for Biorefineries, because there are no commercially available technologies to convert Lignocellulosics into the desired products or, even, to their precursors. Besides, the recovery and transportation costs of residual Lignocellulosics (leftovers of agricultural operations) are extremely high (due to their low surface density) and this would make them economically non-attractive, even if the required technologies existed. Finally, urban and rural wastes do not constitute a source of raw material because the first has already a processing path and the second is spread over a very large surface. The Lignocellulosics associated with the Sucrose production, as in the case of the Sugar Cane, would be adequately used to generate surplus Electricity to be sold to the grid and, thus, to reduce the Sucrose production cost. 3

4 We can, then, define the Biorefinery of the Present as the Industrial Unit able to convert Integral Sugar Cane into the desired product and surplus Electricity to the grid. An hypothetical Integrated Complex, for the production of a desired Sucrochemical, like Green Naphta for example, would include the agricultural operations, and could be seen as being divided into two main sections: (a) The Sucrose Production Platform, including: The Sugar Cane Crop The Sugar Cane Reception & Preparation and Sucrose Extraction The Power House (Steam and Electricity Production) Offsite operations (b) The GMO Unit, including: The GMO Fermentation (to the desired product or to its precursor) The Finishing Unit The Biorefinery of the Present Definition 4

5 The Sucrose Production Platform shall be conceived, designed and constructed under the most advanced agricultural and industrial techniques, aimed to minimize the Sucrose net production cost. These advanced techniques would include: Optimized Sugar Cane Varieties Complete characterization of the production environment Total crop mechanization and optimized logistics Integral Sugar Cane production Optimal irrigation regime The Biorefinery of the Present Sucrose Production Platform Maximum energy generation (steam and energy) Maximum EE surplus sales to the local grid With all these provisions taken altogether, at their respective maximum extent, we expect Sucrose net production cost in the US$ 25/tonne to US$ 30/tonne range, competitive with Oil cost of US$ 115/tonne, on an energy content basis. 5

6 GMO Units The GMO Units, whose technology is the key factor allowing the conception and design of Biorefineries, in general would include: The production of the precursor of the Green Naphta The conversion of the precursor to the Green Naphta The anaerobic fermentation (bio-digestion) of the stillage to produce Biogas There have already been short communications from the GMO community reporting the pursuing of the direct production of Alkanes from Sucrose, in one step, in the GMO fermentation. This would surely reduce the total capex and the total opex required to construct and operate the GMO Unit. By now, even considering the two-steps GMO conversion of Sucrose to Green Naphta, when starting with the Sucrose net production cost as shown before, we can estimate the Green Naphta production cost as being something around US$ 250/tonne, to be compared to the Petrochemical Naphta cost (with cost of US$ 15/bbl, its price of US$ 80/bbl) of some US$ 180/tonne. 6

7 Assuming, for the hypothetical Integrated Complex, a nominal capacity of tonnes of Green Naphta/year, we would characterize the Integrate Complex by the following parameters: Required Sucrose production: Required Crop Land: 1.34 million tonnes/year 107 thousands hectares E Type Integral Sugar Cane production: 19.6 million tonnes/year Agricultural Investment (Crop & CCT): US$ 450 MM 1 st. Generation Power House (670 MW): US$ 321MM Reception & Preparation and Sucrose Extraction: US$ 171 MM GMO Unit: US$ 279 MM Total Investment: The Biorefinery of the Present Preliminary Economics US$ MM The total investment, here estimated, already includes the offsites of the Biorefinery, distributed pro-rata amongst the Biorefinery ISBL investments. 7

8 Assuming the following price assumptions, for the evaluation of the Integrated Complex: Oil price: Petrochemical Naphta Price: Green Naphta Price (without Carbon Credits): Bio-Electricity Price the plant gate): Income Taxes: Weight averaged capital cost: The Biorefinery of the Present Evaluation period (with perpetuity): Preliminary Economics US$ 80/bbl US$ 764/tonne US$ 955/tonne US$ 70/MWh 34% over gross profit 9.0%aa 10 years of operation We get the following economic performance indicators: Average cash generation: US$ 314 MM/year Internal Return Rate: 24.2%aa NPV of wacc discounted cash flow US$ 1.6 billion 8

9 Conclusions We hope that we have achieved our goal of showing that, presently, it is already feasible to conceive, design and construct a Model Biorefinery (the one able to convert Sucrose into Green Naphta), which when inserted into an Integrated Complex, would produce the Green Naphta competitively vis-à-vis the Petrochemical Naphta (with a US$ 15/bbl cost) and, at the same, with the Integrated Complex project presenting fair intrinsic attractiveness. The fact that we have estimated the economic performance indicators, for the Integrated Complex, does not preclude the fact that the same economic performance indicators would be achieved by each of a number of companies that would partner to materialize the Integrated Complex, provided that all partner companies adhere to the engagement rules, which would grant the establishment of the virtual integration, amongst them. 9

10 Recommendations Given what was here exposed, we feel authorized to recommend the deepening of the evaluation here carried out, based on a real project, aimed to, eventually, design and construct a Model Biorefinery, for the conversion of Sucrose to Green Naphta, with a nominal capacity of tonnes/year, taking into account that there would be a huge market demand for such a raw material. This is so, because the Green Naphta, besides being sustainable (lato sensu), can be advantageously used in the existing Petrochemical Naphta conversion units, the Naphta Steamcrackers, around the world, mainly in Japan that, let aside the fact that it imports almost all Naphta it consumes (around 20.0 million tonnes/year), is showing a growing interest in the Green Products, a fact that can be verified through their demonstrated willingness of paying price premiums, for the Green Products. Finally, Brazil is the most privilegiated region of the world, in what concerns the construction and operation of Biorefineries, based on Sugar Cane as raw material. 10

11 Final Word Thank you very much!!! and 11