Potentials of load-shifting with renewable energy storage: an environmental and economic assessment for the UK

Transcription

1 Potentials of load-shifting with renewable energy storage: an environmental and economic assessment for the UK Dr Jahedul Islam Chowdhury Dr Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan Dr Pietro Goglio Dr Yukun Hu Prof. Liz Varga Leah McCabe 23 September 2018, Washington, DC 1

2 Research framework Aims: Determine the amount of load shifting with renewables powered storage at partial peak shaving condition. Determine the amount of storage required to phase out peaking gas power plant Assess environmental and economic implications of the storage uses for peak load supply How: A UK case study An applied approach with true data from National Grid Large scale modular size Li-ion battery to be used 2

3 A step back: Decarbonisation of UK energy sector National and international Targets Kyoto Protocol (baseline 1990) , first commitment Target 12.5% reduction , second commitment Target yet to be finalised EU Effort sharing Decision (baseline 2005) UK target 16% reduction by 2020 from a 2005 level UK target in 2013: MtCO 2 e The Climate Change Act 2008 (Baseline 1990) , 1st budget Cap: MtCO 2 e , 2 nd budget Cap: MtCO 2 e 1990 emissions: MtCO 2 e 2005 emissions: MtCO 2 e 2050 Target: 80% reduction 3

4 Decarbonisation of UK energy sector Total emission in 2016: 468 MtCO 2 e Current state of play Greenhouse gas emissions in UK, 2016, by sectors Sources: BEIS, Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics: Historical trend of GHG emission, Sources: BEIS, Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics: Target Emission level in 2050: MtCO 2 e 4

5 Decarbonisation of UK energy sector Pathways Transport Energy supply Electric car Biofuel Role of hydrogen Waste heat recovery. CCS Interconnectors Storage Renewables. Total electricity generation in 2016 was 336TWh 21% Fossil fuels Renewables Nuclear 24% 54% Business Residential CCS Low carbon heat New efficient processes Energy efficiency improvement.. Insulation Low carbon heat Solar PV Demand side response. Coal 9% Gas 42% Others 3% 5

6 Generation percentage Future decarbonisation scenarios Future electricity generation projection, by source Fossil nuclear renewables Gas Generation mix Key points: Gas based generation is expected to be reduced Renewables and nuclear generation is expected to be increased More wind and solar integration Grid scale Battery storage? Many hours load shifting Replacing CCGT peaking generation Reduce GHG emissions More uncontrollable generation 6 Source:

7 MW National Grid decarbonisation, with batteries.. UK Electricity generation and demand Load shifting with batteries /06/2017 Nuclear Coal Pumped Hydro Hydro Interconnectors Other Wind CCGT Solar Demand seen by National Grid 'True' Demand (incl. solar) Peak demand is mostly met by CCGT power plant Partial load shifting: will reduce a fraction of CCGT running at peak time Full load shifting: will replace CCGT by battery 7

8 Grid Scale Battery storage for load shifting Methods Battery storage model : Store excess energy from wind and solar Discharge energy from batteries at peak time Assumptions: 1. Baseload is the minimum load of a day, obtained from National Grid 2. All baseload should supply by baseload and programmable power plants 3. Peak load should supply from CCGT, solar, wind and pumped hydro Model Inputs : Size of each module of battery National electricity generation profile of solar, wind, pumped hydro and CCGT National electricity demand profile Model outputs : Total storage capacity Total amount of load shifting by storage Total peak demand supply by CCGT 8

9 Battery storage models Start Total generation and demand dataset National generation National demand Battery capacity determination: Generation>Demand No Model 1: Limited storage size, charging to 100% and Yes discharging to 100% conditions (Design bases) Model 2: Infinite storage size, charging and discharging No BES max. rated power> system excess power Yes BES max. rated power> system excess power Yes No when energy available or required (Maximum bases) BES charges at BES max. rated power BES charges at system excess power BES discharges at system excess demand BES discharges at BES max. rated power Model 3: Limited storage size, charging and discharging when energy available or required (Optimal bases) No BES charged=100% BES discharged=100% No Yes Yes Stop Battery charging and discharging algorithm 9

10 Results: Partial load shifting Fig. National excess demand and excess power, 01/06/ /05/2017 Fig. Result from a representative week in 2017 Table: Key results from simulation in 01/06/ /05/2017 Model Battery capacity, GWh Peak demand offset, GWh Curtail Electricity, GWh CCGT supply, GWh

11 Results: Partial load shifting Optimal size of batteries Optimal No. of Batteries is 1071 at a capacity factor of 35% Model Table: Key results from simulation in 01/06/ /05/2017 Battery capacity, GWh Peak demand offset, GWh Curtail Electricity, GWh 1 (Fully charged and then discharged) (Maximum demand offset) (Optimal demand offset) CCGT supply, GWh 11

12 Results: Partial load shifting (Future Scenarios) Optimal size of batteries, 2020 Optimal size of batteries, 2035 Table: Results for future generation/demand scenarios Model Battery capacity, GWh Peak demand offset, GWh Battery capacity, GWh 1 (Fully charged and then discharged) (Maximum demand offset) (Optimal demand offset) Peak demand offset, GWh 12

13 Results: GHG emission reduction Tools used: SimaPro 7.2 Life Cycle Assessment tool IPCC s 5 th Assessment report of 100 year GWP impact factors Table: Key results from LCA analyses for different models output Model GHG reduction (MtCO 2 e) (Fully charged and then discharged) (Maximum demand offset) (Optimal demand offset)

14 What s Next? a. Estimate the storage size to phase out CCGT peak generation b. A full LCA analysis of production, installation and use of batteries c. Economic optimisation 14

15 THANK YOU 15