Ocean + 50: Ocean Industry Projections and the Future of the Ocean Economy

Transcription

1 ENERGY Ocean + 50: Ocean Industry Prjectins and the Future f the Ocean Ecnmy Offshre Renewable Energy Presented by: Dr Sanjay C Kuttan DNVGL Clean Technlgy Centre, Singapre 09 Nvember SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

2 Offshre Wind Energy 2

3 Early adpters fr ffshre wind were mainly cncentrated in Eurpe UK: Primary market, regulatry uncertainty DE: Primary market, grid delays DK & BE: Primary markets, limited vlume FR: Emerging t becme primary market Baltic plus Pland and Finland: early activity Legend Established Emerging Stalled 3

4 UK and Germany are currently significantly leading in ffshre wind installatin capacity 3.6 GW installed 16 GW target by 2020 Prjectin based n DNV GL Prject Database Status Q GW installed (*06/2015) Up t 6.5 GW by

5 whilst utside Eurpe, China will dminate, develping installed capacity tgether with US, Taiwan and Japan 0 GW installed 1.1 GW by 2020 <500 MW installed Surce: weltkarte.cm 5

6 Operatr s experience, cnfidence and technlgical develpment is pushing installatins deeper and further Eurpe Glbal Design Depth [m] BE DE DK ES FR EI NL NO SE UK Distance t Shre [km] Surce: DNV GL Surce: MAKE 6

7 Strng cmpetitin between OEMs will lead t further cnslidatin in the market? 7

8 Levelised Cst f Energy is drpping belw 100/MWh in the key markets and heading twards the gal f 80/MWh Wrk Cmpletin (CRMF) Wrk Cmpletin (CRMF) FID (CRMF) LCOE /MWh Anhlt Hrns Rev 3 East Anglia 1 Neart Nea Gaithe UK Denmark Delivery Year 8

9 Cst reductin fr ffshre wind installatin are influenced by fur main drivers Reprt highlighted three main drivers f reductins in cst: 1. Rapid technical develpment, especially in turbines 2. Sectr is becming bankable asset class 3. An industrialised supply chain facing cmpetitive pressure Since the reprt release the auctin tender results have highlighted a furth key element: 4. Cmpetitive tendering has driven rapid reductins 9

10 Independent LCOE analysis shws ptentially 15% t 20% lwer cst fr flating structure versus fixed in early 2020s FIXED FLOATING 15-20% Surce: Carbn Trust 10

11 Strng future pipeline f ffshre prjects depends n successes f early pilts and plitical factrs Surce: NREL Glbal pipeline f perating and prpsed flating ffshre wind prjects Nte: Bubble size represents prject rated capacity (in MW). 11

12 Three main flating structures are cmpeting fr dminance but n clear winner at present Tensin Leg Platfrm Spar Semi-Submersible 12

13 Ocean Technlgies 13

14 DNV GL s recent experience f ver 200+ advisry wrk in marine energy indicates grwing glbal interest DNV GL Nvember 2015

15 Ungraded

16 Tidal stream and wave energy cnverters are the clsest t being cmmercially viable Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

17 Evaluatin acrss fur dimensins shws that wave and tidal stream technlgies are relatively mre attractive Relative Attractiveness Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

18 Fur key hurdles t vercme in the path f cmmercial rll-ut f cean technlgies Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

19 Technical challenges are assciated with the resurce, device and array cnfiguratin Addressing these barriers are pririty fr technlgies with lesser maturity. Plicy makers are encuraged t: Cnduct a resurce-mapping exercise; Make capital grant funding & test centres available; Prmte sharing f best practices; Encurage the spreading f risk ; and Prmte internatinal cllabratin, technlgy transfer and cllabrative research, develpment and demnstratin Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

20 Plicy makers and utilities are ften under pressure t adpt least-cst and least-risk decarbnisatin technlgy Therefre, the key t vercming this hurdle is t reduce the cst and risk prfile f the Ocean Technlgies. Plicy makers are encuraged t: Prvide capital supprt; Prvide a premium price per unit f energy generated; Prmte niche applicatins areas; Quantify additinal benefits; and Accelerate cst and risk reductin thrugh rad mapping Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

21 Test centres minimise the envirnmental/scial burden n device develpers thrugh centralised studies and testing Hwever, the transitin t cmmercial-scale deplyment requires envirnmental and scial issues t be taken int cnsideratins Plicy makers are encuraged t: Remve bttlenecks in the prcess f granting cnsent; Imprve access t baseline data; Incrprate cean energy develpment in natinal maritime spatial plans; and Cnsult and engage with the public Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

22 Infrastructural challenge fr cean energy technlgies are mainly assciated with grid issues and the supply chain Plicy makers are encuraged t: Ensure netwrk planning takes cean energy technlgies int cnsideratin Use natinal/reginal develpment agencies t ensure that supply chain pprtunities related cean energy deplyment are well disseminated, T build capacity amngst lcal cmpanies Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

23 Plicymakers must address the technical barriers acrss all technlgy types as the first pririty Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt

24 Ocean Technlgy deplyment has been slwer than expected with cmmercial maturity beynd 2020 Accrding t IEC 1 s visin fr Ocean Energy, they are expecting 337GW f capacity by Hwever, deplyment is slwer than expected due t: Slwer technlgy develpment than expected Natural technlgy ptimism by device develpers Pressure t exaggerate technical maturity in rder t secure the attentin f plicy makers and investrs Challenging macrecnmic envirnment Targets ften nt being backed up by the financial supprt needed t deliver deplyment Surce: DNV GL, IRENA Reprt 2014, IEC s ETI fr Ocean - An internatinal visin fr Ocean Energy 24

25 Key Summary Offshre Wind Technlgy Overall cst is decreasing as the industry grws and gains mre experience and cnfidence Offshre sites are mving twards deeper cean territry Flating wind design needs further enhancements t make it cmparable with fixed fundatin types. Ocean Technlgy Wave Cnverter and Tidal stream represents the frerunners f technlgies clsest t being cmmercially viable Fur key hurdles exists Technical Fundamental Ecnmic Pressures Envirnmental and Scial Issues Infrastructure practicalities Plicymakers shuld fcus n addressing the technical barriers 25

26 DNVGL s purpse T safeguard life, prperty and the envirnment Dr Sanjay C Kuttan Directr and Cuntry Manager, Clean Technlgy Centre, DNV GL - Energy sanjay.c.kuttan@dnvgl.cm SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER 26