ETI response to the Welsh Affairs Committee inquiry into the future of nuclear power in Wales

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1 ETI response to the Welsh Affairs Committee inquiry into the future of nuclear power Introduction 1. Over the past eight years the (ETI) has developed strong credentials in national energy system analysis, informed by the latest industrial and engineering expertise. This enables us to explore the lowest-cost decarbonisation pathways, under a range of assumptions, constraints and uncertainties. Our analysis has been widely cited by academics, government and by the Committee on Climate Change in its advice to government. 2. This ETI submission to the Welsh Affairs Committee is limited to the potential of deploying SMRs to a site near to the decommissioning Magnox reactors at Trawsfynydd. 3. Since 2014 the ETI has been adding to its evidence base in relation to the potential UK deployment of Giga Watt (GW) scale nuclear power reactors as well as small modular reactors (SMRs). In particular, ETI has delivered studies into both future power plant siting and alternative nuclear technologies (principally SMRs). The future power plant siting project specifically included consideration of the Trawsfynydd site and has confirmed the suitability of Trawsfynydd as a potential early site for SMR deployment. 4. There is no universally accepted definition of SMRs. However, for the purpose of this submission the ETI defines an SMR as a nuclear power plant with an electricity power output of 300 MWe or less which is capable of being deployed at individual sites as multiple identical units. A common feature of many SMRs is that a greater proportion of the work can take place in factories with pre-fabricated modules transferred to site but this characteristic varies from vendor to vendor. 5. This document contains : A summary of our response to the committee s question on the potential for small modular reactors to be built at Trawsfynydd ( built being taken to mean installed and operated noting that much of an SMR reactor build may be off-site compared to previous installations) Background on the evidence base on power plant siting and SMR economics which ETI has used to inform its comments on the suitability of Trawsfynydd as a potential site for SMR(s) General conclusions from ETI s UK wide projects on power plant siting and SMR economics Description of further work now being carried out by ETI on SMR deployment enablers Comments on application of the National Policy Statement (EN6) to SMR deployment 2016 LLP. The information in this document is the property of LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of LLP. Delivering the UK s Future Energy Technologies 1

2 Conclusions From The ETI s Projects Relevant To The Suitability Of Trawsfynydd For The Deployment Of Small Modular Reactors 6. The conclusions from the ETI s projects, principally from our UK Power Plant Siting Study, are that deploying SMRs near the existing Magnox power station at Trawsfynydd would satisfy the existing criteria listed in the existing National Policy Statement EN6. 7. The ETI has commissioned a further phase of work to be delivered by Atkins as part of this Power Plant Siting Study. The scope of this phase of work includes the consideration of a wider range of factors in addition to the siting criteria listed in the National Policy Statement. Its purpose is to identify and rank a number of locations for a potential first tranche of UK SMR deployments and, from a developers perspective, identify whether a clearly preferred site emerges for the location of a UK First Of A Kind SMR. This phase of work is ongoing and due to complete by the end of March 2016 but has confirmed the suitability of Trawsfynydd as a potential early site for SMR deployment. 8. ETI s current work has identified two areas for further investigation with respect to a site at Trawsfynydd: 1. Water availability in Llyn Trawsfynydd is influenced by rainfall. This changes seasonally, with occasional periods of drought. It may also be influenced by the impact of long term climate change. It is important to better understand these factors which will influence the selection of power station cooling system designs by a potential SMR developer and also the level of SMR power station capacity which can be supported by Llyn Trawsfynydd. 2. The transport of large loads and bulk construction materials to the potential site at Trawsfynydd. Ultimately it is for the SMR developer to identify the most appropriate solution, and the solution may vary from developer to developer. Whilst it is likely that access to other sites located on the coast or estuaries may be simpler from this perspective, the challenge of transporting large loads to an inland site like Trawsfynydd is exactly the sort of challenge which must be overcome if SMRs are to be successfully deployed in significant numbers. 9. The current phase of work has also reinforced the importance of connectivity to the grid. This means both the timely connection to support generation operations, and an affordable cost for electricity transmission. 10. The current phase of work has also confirmed the important influence of local stakeholder support, noting that the scope of ETI s projects excluded new work on this topic. 11. Finally, work delivered by the Alternative Nuclear Technologies project identified that the economics of UK SMRs could be significantly improved if they deployed for combined heat and power, with the heat being used to energise city scale district heating systems. The ANT project did not identify any large sources of low grade heat demand near Trawsfynydd. However, for a UK First Of A Kind SMR, the proximity of a potential future city scale heat network may not be important. 2

3 Development of ETI s Evidence Base Development In Relation To The Deployment Of New Nuclear Power Stations In England and Wales 12. In 2014 the ETI commissioned and managed the delivery of two projects to provide an improved evidence base around 1) future power plant siting in the UK and 2) alternative nuclear technologies (principally technology and economics of SMRs). Findings from these projects have been published (see below) and some additional work is now being carried out. 13. The ETI Power Plant Siting Study (PPSS) 1 had the primary focus of exploring the UK stock of sites suitable for the deployment of GW scale reactors and which could satisfy the criteria listed in the National Policy Statement for nuclear (NPS) EN6. One of the primary outputs of the Power Plant Siting Study was to inform whether new nuclear capacity deployed through to 2050 is likely to be constrained by the availability of suitable sites. The Power Plant Siting Study was a large and complex multi-disciplinary project containing many related sensitivity studies including whether there is potential site capacity for SMRs at locations not suitable for the deployment of Giga Watt scale reactors. 14. It should be noted that the National Policy Statement EN6 also called out the locations identified through a Strategic Siting Assessment process as suitable for the construction and operation of new nuclear power stations by If all of those potential new nuclear power sites were successfully developed this could provide new electrical generation power capacity of around 23 GWe. 15. The ETI System Requirements for Alternative Nuclear Technologies (ANT) 2 project was focused on identifying the necessary technical and economic features of an SMR, which would make it valuable for deployment as part of an affordable transition to a UK low carbon energy system. At a high level this identified the requirements for the supply of electricity, the potential for using waste heat in district heating schemes, and the flexibility of SMRs to adjust heat and power delivery against daily changes in demand. It also identified a target date of around 2030 for first of a kind (FOAK) UK operations and a subsequent construction and grid connection rate for a significant capacity of SMRs to be deployed in the UK by The majority of the ANT project concerned SMR economics and the requirement for SMRs to be cost competitive in an affordable transition to a low carbon economy. This involved modelling of indicative costs using established norms for the diseconomies of scale (smaller scale plants normally driving unit costs up) and the economies of multiples (repeat production volumes normally driving unit costs down). This modelling was independent of vendors and intended to form an independent view. It was not intended to provide a forecast of costs but primarily to indicate the trends of the challenges and opportunities. 17. There were multiple interfaces between the two projects which were successfully delivered by Atkins (PPSS) and Mott MacDonald (ANT). The results from the two projects were used to update our knowledge and the data deployed in our whole energy system models

4 18. It was important that the ETI could rely on the results from these two challenging and groundbreaking projects so we commissioned and managed multiple overlapping independent peer reviews, delivered in three phases, for each project. Peer reviewers were drawn from academia and industry in the UK and overseas. The final summary reports from both projects together with the final peer review letters have been posted on the ETI s website. The results from these projects, together with ETI energy system scenario and sensitivity modelling were used to inform the preparation and release in October 2015 of ETI s insight The Role for Nuclear within a Low Carbon Transition 3 (conclusions summarised below). ETI s current conclusions on new nuclear build in the UK ( published October 2015) 19. The key conclusions from our Insight publication The Role for Nuclear within a Low Carbon Transition were as follows: 1. New nuclear plants can form a major part of an affordable low carbon transition, with potential roles for both large nuclear and SMRs. 2. Large reactors ( GW plant ) are best suited for baseload electricity production analysis indicates an upper capacity limit, from site availability in England and Wales to 2050, of around 35 GW actual deployment will be influenced by a number of factors and could be lower. Alongside large nuclear, SMRs may be less cost effective for baseload electricity production. 3. SMRs could fulfil an additional role in a UK low carbon energy system by delivering combined heat and power (CHP) a major contribution to the decarbonisation of energy use in buildings but deployment depends on availability of district heating infrastructure and ability to site plant within an economic distance of heat demand. 4. SMRs offer more flexibility than GW plant with potential deployment locations that could deliver heat into cities via hot water pipelines up to 30 km in length the ETI assessed potential capacity of at least 21 GWe but the limit may be higher. 5. Total nuclear contribution in the UK s 2050 energy mix could be around 50 GWe; SMRs contributing nuclear capacity above 40 GWe will need to be flexible in their power delivery output to aid balancing of the grid (unlike GW plant where the plant is essentially operated at a fixed output level). 6. Future nuclear technologies will only be deployed if there is a market need and these technologies provide the most cost effective solution. 7. A decision is required now whether to begin 10 years of enabling activities which would lead to a final investment decision for a first commercially operated UK SMR earliest operational date around A strategic approach to reactor siting together with public consultation will be important in determining the extent of deployment of both large nuclear and SMRs

5 Further Nuclear Power Knowledge Building Projects In Delivery from ETI 20. The conclusion (para 19-7 above) that key enabling activities need to be progressed to support a UK FOAK by 2030 prompted the need to better understand the scope and timing of these enabling activities. It was also decided to undertake additional work to further validate the engineering and cost assumptions used in earlier work related to use of SMRs for combined heat and power. Further work was commissioned to each of the PPSS and ANT projects and a new project known as the SMR Deployment Enablers project has also been commissioned and is now in delivery 4. Potential Changes To The Siting Criteria Identified in National Policy Statement EN One of the supporting objectives of the Power Plant Siting Study was to identify the most influential criteria which constrain UK nuclear site capacity and whether it was realistic to expect that these criteria might change. The conclusion against this supporting objective was that there was no sound basis to challenge or change the existing criteria. Potential Differences In The Application Of National Policy Statement Siting Criteria Between GW Scale Reactors and SMRs 22. It is noted that the new nuclear power stations proposed by NNB GenCo, Horizon and NuGen have capacities of the order of 2.7 to 3.4 GWe involving multiple reactors on the same site. SMRs by definition are also intended to be deployable as multiple identical units at the same site. The analysis undertaken by the ETI for the PPSS and ANT projects was intended to be technology neutral, and the ETI standardised on a single unit of 300 MWe with an expectation of better deployment economics when deployed as a twin unit of 600 MWe. In reality, individual vendor designs would influence the number of units per site: 1. NuScale, with a relatively small module, promote a 12 module design delivering around 600 MWe (gross) 2. Westinghouse, with a relatively large module, promote a 225 MWe design suitable for deploying as a twin configuration delivering around 450 MWe (gross) 3. Vendors with module sizes within this range include m Power, SMART and CNNC s ACP Nuclear power stations deploying SMRs have the potential to be smaller in terms of: 1. Electrical generation capacity 2. Land requirements 3. Cooling water requirements This means that while the same siting criteria from the National Policy Statement are relevant to both Giga Watt scale reactors and SMRs, it can be appropriate to scale their application with respect to: 1. Siting criterion E4 size of site 4 5

6 2. Siting criterion E5 access to sources of cooling water 3. Siting criterion D9 - size of site to accommodate operations 4. Siting criterion D10 access to suitable sources of cooling water This was demonstrated by ETI through a sensitivity study within the Power Plant Siting Study which identified a range of locations in England and Wales that could satisfy the NPS siting criteria for the deployment of SMRs, but that these locations would not be suitable for the deployment of Giga Watt scale reactors. About the ETI 24. The (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global energy and engineering firms (BP, Caterpillar, EDF Energy, Rolls-Royce, Shell) and the UK Government. 25. Our mission is to accelerate the development, demonstration and eventual commercial deployment of a focused portfolio of energy technologies which will increase energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help achieve energy and climate change goals. 26. We carry out three key activities: modelling and strategic analysis of the UK energy system to identify the key challenges and potential solutions to meeting the UK s 2020 and 2050 targets at the lowest cost to the UK investing in major engineering and technology demonstration projects to de-risk and build capability both technology and supply-chain solutions for subsequent commercial investors enabling effective third party commercialisation of project outcomes. 27. The ETI has developed an internationally peer-reviewed national energy system design tool (known as ESME - Energy System Modelling Environment 5 ), to underpin our strategic techno-economic analysis of the UK energy system. ESME models choices across power, heat, transport and infrastructure sectors and is informed by evidence drawn from our private sector members, our technical projects and a range of expert advisers. As such it enables the ETI to deliver evidence-based insights on how to deliver affordable, secure and low carbon energy for Britain in the decades ahead, including identifying credible, lowestcost pathways to secure low-carbon energy in future. Written evidence submitted by Nigel Richardson, Public Affairs Manager on behalf of the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) February 2016 Contact details Nigel Richardson, Public Affairs Manager Nigel.richardson@eti.co.uk