FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release

Transcription

1 FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) January 18, 2019 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. In December, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, its largest gain since February The output of mines rose (over) Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary Seasonally adjusted 2012= Percent change Dec. 17 to Industrial production July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Dec. 18 Total index Previous estimates Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities Capacity Percent of capacity growth Average Dec. 17 to Capacity utilization 2017 high low high low Dec. July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Dec. 18 Total industry Previous estimates Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information, respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1

2 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities fell 6.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures lowered the demand for heating. At percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.0 percent higher in December than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.1 percentage point in December to 78.7 percent, a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run ( ) average. Market Groups The major market groups posted broad-based gains in December, though consumer energy products, business supplies, and energy materials all recorded decreases because of the drop in the output of utilities. Durable consumer goods posted the largest gain among the major non-energy market groups, nearly 2 3 /4 percent, followed by a gain of about 2 1 /4 percent for defense and space equipment and an increase of almost 1 1 /2 percent for construction supplies. The indexes for non-energy materials and for non-energy nondurable consumer goods rose nearly 1 percent, while the index for business equipment moved up 1 /2 percent. Industry Groups Manufacturing output advanced 1.1 percent in December and increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter; the index rose 2.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2017 and the fourth quarter of Within durable manufacturing, motor vehicles and parts posted a gain of 4.7 percent in December, and nonmetallic mineral products recorded an increase of nearly 3 percent; the indexes for several other durable goods industries advanced more than 1 percent. Among nondurables, the index for petroleum and coal products jumped 3 1 /2 percent. Most other major categories of nondurables posted gains of less than 1 percent. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) increased 0.2 percent. Mining output rose 1.5 percent in December, with gains in oil and gas extraction, coal mining, and support activities for mining (mainly oil and gas well drilling); the index for mining was 13.4 percent above its level from a year earlier. The output of utilities fell 6.3 percent in December, with both electric and gas utilities posting sharp declines. Capacity utilization for manufacturing jumped 0.7 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent, about 2 percentage points below its long-run average. The utilization rate for mining increased to 94.8 percent and remained well above its long-run average of 87.0 percent. The operating rate for utilities fell to 75.0 percent, a rate that is about 10 percentage points below its long-run average. Years of the Industrial Production Index With this release, the index of industrial production comprises a full years of monthly data, from January 1919 to December A brief history of the index is available on the Board s website at years of ip data.htm. 2

3 Tables 1. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change 2. Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change 3. Motor Vehicle Assemblies 4. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes 5. Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes 6. Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production 7. Capacity Utilization 8. Industrial Capacity 9. Gross Value of Final Products and Nonindustrial Supplies 10. Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups 11. Historical Statistics: Total Industry 12. Historical Statistics: Manufacturing 13. Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries 14. Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries 15. Industrial Production: Reliability Estimates Further detail is available on the Board s website ( Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization around the end of the first quarter of The Economic Census for 2017 will not be available from the U.S. Census Bureau by early 2019, so no new annual benchmark data will be included for manufacturing. Other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels), will be incorporated. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present. Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2018 from the U.S. Census Bureau s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. 3

4 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization Total Manufacturing Ratio scale, 2012 output = Capacity Production 50 Production: 2014 to present Percent of capacity Utilization Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 4

5 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization 130 Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2012= 130 Equipment Ratio scale, 2012= Business Nondurable Durable Defense and Space Nonindustrial supplies Ratio scale, 2012= Industrial materials Ratio scale, 2012= Construction 120 Non-energy Other business Energy Capacity utilization Excluding utilities Percent of capacity Primary and semifinished 85 processing Capacity utilization Crude processing Percent of capacity Finished processing Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 5

6 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries 130 Industrial production Ratio scale, 2012 = 130 Excluding high-technology industries 50 Total IP Industrial production Percent change from year earlier Total IP Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2012 = Communications equipment Computers Capacity utilization Excluding high-technology industries Percent of capacity Semiconductors High-technology industries Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 3344), computers (NAICS 3341), and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6

7 Table 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate Monthly rate Dec. 17 Item to proportion Q2 Q3 r Q4 p July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Dec. 18 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products 311, Textile and product mills 313, Apparel and leather 315, Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-naics) 1133, Mining Utilities 2211, Electric Natural gas r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board s website ( Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are the relative weights for the rates of change for each series in the computation of the change in total industrial production in the following year. 7

8 Table 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate Monthly rate Dec. 17 Item to proportion Q2 Q3 r Q4 p July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Dec. 18 Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate Item average Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy Memo Autos and light trucks NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board s website, 8

9 Table 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY 2012 =, seasonally adjusted Item proportion Apr. May June July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products 311, Textile and product mills 313, Apparel and leather 315, Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-naics) 1133, Mining Utilities 2211, Electric Natural gas r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 9

10 Table 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES 2012 =, seasonally adjusted Item proportion Apr. May June July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Percent Item Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. One month earlier Three months earlier Six months earlier NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10

11 Table 7 CAPACITY UTILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Item proportion ave. high low Q2 Q3 r Q4 p July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Total industry Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products 311, Textile and product mills 313, Apparel and leather 315, Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-naics) 1133, Mining Utilities 2211, Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 11

12 Table 8 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY Percent change Monthly Average annual rate Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate rate Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec. Total industry Manufacturing Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing 1 ex. selected high-technology industries STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 GROSS VALUE OF FINAL PRODUCTS AND NONINDUSTRIAL SUPPLIES Billions of 2009 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted Item Q2 Q3 r Q4 p July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Final products and nonindustrial supplies 3, , , , , ,7.5 3, , , , ,775.6 Final products 2, , , , ,2.5 2, , , ,5.0 2,7.7 2,811.8 Consumer goods 1,7.9 1, , , , , , , , , ,012.2 Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable 1, , , , , , , , , , ,495.5 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 GROSS-VALUE-WEIGHTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate Monthly rate Dec. 17 Item to gross value Q2 Q3 r Q4 p July r Aug. r Sept. r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. p Dec. 18 Finished 2, Semifinished 1, Primary 1, Crude r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2009 dollars. 12

13 Table 11 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) IP (2012=) Capacity (percent of 2012 output) Utilization (percent) Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13

14 Table 12 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing 1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) IP (2012=) Capacity (percent of 2012 output) Utilization (percent) Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14

15 Table 13 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries 1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) IP (2012=) Capacity (percent of 2012 output) Utilization (percent) Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15

16 Table 14 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing 1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries 2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) IP (2012=) Capacity (percent of 2012 output) Utilization (percent) Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16