How effective would a global version of the EU policy be?

Transcription

1 How effective would a global version of the EU policy be? JAE EDMONDS AND KATHERINE CALVIN Joint GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop Joint Global Change Research Institute College Park, Maryland, USA 19 September 212

2 Background! GCAM is used in an international multi-model research project called LinkS Linking Global and Regional Models.! LinkS is a program organized and managed by SINTEF (Skandinavias største uavhengige forskningsorganisasjon) located at the in Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) for the Research Council of Norway.! GCAM provides a description of global circumstances for other models in the modeling suite including! World Gas Model (UMD)! China TIMES model! European electricity infrastructure model! European model! Social science research! The most recent meeting was in Beijing, China hosted by Tsinghua University.

3 ANALYSIS PROTOCOL

4 Goal of the Analysis! Evaluate the efficacy of an international and ultimately global generalization of the EU energy policy.! Multi-measure policy package.! How effective?! What is its effect on the global energy system?! What is its effect on the global and land-use systems?! How will it effect CO 2 and other prices?! Evaluate the contribution of the policy s various measures

5 Policies and Measures Modeled in the Global Policy Policies and Measures GHG Emissions Limits Renewable Energy PorColio Standard Biofuels Standard Energy Efficiency Standard Implementa3on Emissions reduc-ons are measured rela-ve to those 3 years prior to the 1 st commitment period. (e.g. 199 for Europe, 25 for the USA) Percentage of final energy that must come from renewable energy sources Percentage of transporta-on energy from renewable energy. Reduc-on in final energy demand rela-ve to the reference scenario, other things unchanged. First Period Commitment Second Period Commitment Third Period Commitment Beyond the Third Period 2% 5% 8% 8% 2% 5% 8% 8% 1% 25% 5% 5% 2% 5% 8% 8%

6 Timing of Regional Participation and Determination of the Year Emissions Mitigation and Establishment of Standards First Year in which climate mi3ga3on policies and measures are introduced Region Eastern Europe Western Europe Australia & New Zealand Canada China Japan S. Korea USA Former Soviet Union India La-n America Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Year

7 Comparison of year 21 Values for Key Outputs from GCAM for the & Global Policies and Measures Scenarios Global Fossil Fuel & Industrial CO 2 Emissions 81 PgCO 2 /y PgCO 2 /y Cumula3ve Land- use Change CO 2 Emissions 142 PgCO PgCO 2 Radia3ve Forcing 6.7 Wm Wm - 2 Global Mean Surface Temperature Change 3.8 o C 2.3 o C CO 2 Equivalent Concentra3on 98 ppm CO 2 - e 514 ppm CO 2 - e CO 2 ONLY Concentra3on 811 ppm 433 ppm Price of carbon (25 constant USD) $/TCO 2 $59/TCO 2

8 RESULTS

9 Radiative Forcing and Temperature: and Global Radia-ve Forcing Global Global Mean Surface Temperature Change Relative to Pre-Industrial Global W/m Degrees C

10 The Composition of Power Generation in the Scenario (left) and the Global Scenario (right) EJ/yr Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS EJ/yr Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS

11 POLICY DECOMPOSITION

12 Global Decomposition! To assess the impact of each element of the global policy, we ran a scenario turning on three individual policy elements separately: Policies and Measures GHG Emissions Limits Renewable Energy PorColio Standard Energy Efficiency Standard Implementa3on Emissions reduc-ons are measured rela-ve to those in the 3 years prior to the 1 st commitment period. (e.g. 199 for Europe, 25 for the USA) Percentage of final energy that must come from renewable energy sources Reduc-on in final energy demand rela-ve to the reference scenario, other things unchanged. First Period Commitment Second Period Commitment Third Period Commitment Beyond the Third Period 2% 5% 8% 8% 2% 5% 8% 8% 2% 5% 8% 8%

13 Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Industrial Activities (left panel) and Land-use Change (right panel) Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions Land-use Change CO 2 emissions Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only GtCO 2 /yr GtCO 2 /yr Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only

14 Power Generation EJ/yr Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS Global EJ/yr Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS GHG Only EJ/yr Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS EE Only EJ/yr Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS RES Only

15 The CO 2 Price Global 222 GHG Only 25$/tCO

16 Bioenergy and Crop Prices Bioenergy Produc-on Crop Prices EJ/year Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only Price of Wheat (25=1.) Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only

17 Temperature Change 4. Degrees C GHG Only EE Only RES Only Global

18 Summary! Our numerical experiments test the effectiveness of the EU energy policy generalized to the world.! Policy Portfolio: emissions limits, renewable energy standards, energy efficiency standard.! The Global policy proved highly effective in limiting climate change.! Global mean temperature increase limited to ~2 o C.! The climate objective was achieved with the GHG emissions limits alone.! Next steps! Revise the paper! Submit to a journal