GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 4

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1 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 4 Environment for development a call for action Peter Prokosch, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

2 Focus of GEO-4 Environment for development a call for action to move the environment from the periphery to the core of decision-making The GEO-4 assessment report provides: Access to the best scientific knowledge for international governance; Mainstreaming of environmental concerns into socio-economic sectors; Interaction between science and technology through relevant multi-scaled and multi-dimensional integrated assessment process

3 Global Consensus on Main Issues Seven Regions Issue 1 Issue 4 Issue 2 Issue 3

4 Significance of GEO-4 Most comprehensive UN report on the environment 1st GEO report in which all seven of the world s regions emphasize the potential impacts of climate change Climate change a global priority all the different kinds of crises environmental, development, energy, water are part of one big picture and are related to climate change

5 Persistent problems Rapid rise of oxygen dead zones in the oceans Resurgence of old and new diseases Growing population with demands on the earth s biological capacity Unsustainable pressure on resources Risk that environmental damage could pass unknown points of no return

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7 Achievements over the past 20 years The international community has: Cut, by 95%, the production of ozone-layer damaging chemicals Created a GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction treaty Supported a rise in terrestrial protected areas to cover roughly 12% of the Earth Devised instruments to cope with biodiversity and desertification challenges, and the trade in hazardous wastes and living modified organisms

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9 Regional Issues Africa: desertification; decreased food production Asia & Pacific: air pollution; fresh water stress; land use; waste Europe: unsustainable production and consumption; energy use; transport; biodiversity loss; land use Latin America & Caribbean: biodiversity threats; deforestation (Amazon); land use; coastal damage and marine pollution; protected areas North America: struggling addressing climate change; energy use; transport; urban sprawl; West Asia: freshwater stress; land degradation; coast and marine ecosystems; peace & security Polar Regions: Climate change; mercury & and POPs; ozone layer

10 Key-findings - Atmosphere Global average temperature raise this century (6) degrees C; 2 degrees tipping point Arctic temperature rise twice as much; Sea level rise with huge consequences; Aviation and shipping increased dramaticly; Despite phasing out successes of ozone depleting substances, spring hole over Antarctica larger than ever.

11 Key findings Pollution More than chemical compounds in commercial use; chemical production to increase by 85% next 20 years; More than 2 million people/year prematurely die from pollution; Progress in developed world on expense of developing world (production and impact export).

12 Pollution and Cross-border Conflict Potential

13 Key findings - Water 10% of major rivers fail to reach the sea (iirigation demands); 3 million people/year die from water-borne deseases; 2,6 billion people lack improved sanitation services; By 2025 water withdrawals risen by 50% in developing, 18% in developed world

14 Increase of fresh water use

15 Key findings - Biodiversity 60% of ecosystem services degraded and used unsustainable since 1987; 50% of fresh water vertebrates declined in same period; 6 million ha of tropical humid forests lost/year (highest loss: South Asia); Values of biodiversity (e.g. world fish catch US$58 billion) and human societies dependence on.

16 High human impact Biodiversity index Undisturbed

17 Four Scenarios Markets First Policy First Security First Sustainability First Investing in environmental and social sustainability does not impair economic development

18 Thank you!