Forecasting Ozone within Stratospheric Intrusions

Transcription

1 Forecasting Ozone within Stratospheric Intrusions Brad Pierce NOAA/NESDIS/STAR NOAA provides global and regional chemical transport model and trajectory forecasts of stratospheric ozone intrusions to federal, state and local air quality management agencies to aid in determining whether elevated surface ozone levels are due to local ozone production or were a natural occurrence Western U.S. TEMPO Early Adopters Workshop, April 10-11, 2018, Fort Collins, CO

2 NOAA Operational Products: National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) GFS provides 0.25x0.25 degree 5 day ozone forecasts (simple stratospheric Prod/Loss only) initialized with analyses using SBUV-2 profile (currently not assimilated) and OMI total column O3 retrievals NCEP/CPC Contact: Craig Long (craig.long@noaa.gov) GFS 48hr FX initialized at 00Z on 04/09/2018 valid at 00Z on 04/11/2018

3 NOAA Research Products: Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) provides full chemistry (extended CB4+Stratospheric ClOx/BrOx/GOCART) 1x1 degree 4 day chemistry and aerosol forecasts initialized with analyses using MLS stratospheric ozone profiles, OMI cloud cleared total column O3, MODIS Terra and Aqua AOD, and fire detection RAQMS Contact: Brad Pierce (brad.pierce@noaa.gov) RAQMS 60hr FX initialized at 12Z on 04/08/2018 valid at 00Z on 04/11/ (Pacific Sector) (CONUS)

4 NOAA Research Products: Rapid Refresh with Chemistry (RAP-Chem) provides full chemistry (RACM MOSAIC/VBS) 13km resolution 48 hour chemistry and aerosol forecasts using RAQMS real-time forecasts for LBC RAP-Chem Contact: Steve Weygandt RAP-Chem 48hr FX initialized at 00Z on 04/09/2018 valid at 00Z on 04/11/2018

5 NOAA Research Products: Infusing satellite Data into Environmental air quality Applications-International (IDEA-I) provides SI trajectory forecasts initialized from AIRS and CrIS Dual-Regression Ozone and watervapor retrievals ( IDEA-I SI Contact: Kathy Strabala IDEA-I 48hr SI FX (right) initialized at 09Z on 04/09/2018 (left) valid at 00Z on 04/11/2018

6 Case Study: April 3, from Richard Payton (US EPA) date: Wed, Apr 4, 2018 at 9:43 AM subject: Highest O3 so far in 2018 in the Rockies: 66 ppb 8-hour avg at Gothic April 3, 2018 Suspected intrusion over the Rockies the past two days; zero Zulu today (6:00 pm MDT last night) has it over Nebraska/Iowa by evening in the NOAA mapping. (not archived, so 0 zulu today is the oldest map available, RAQMS agrees with the 6:00 pm position. Gothic peaked with 75 ppb hourly ozone at 8:00 am (MST) yesterday. Rocky Mountain NP had 67 ppb at 4:00 am (MST); Price Utah hit 68 ppb at 1:00 pm April 2.

7 IDEA-I CrIS SI Trajectory Forecast 09Z 04/02-00Z 04/04, 2018

8 RAQMS Pacific Sector 300K O3 Analysis/FX 12Z 04/01-12Z 04/06, 2018

9 RAQMS 24hr 106W O3/CO FX valid 12Z 04/03, 2018 Gothic, CO Gothic, CO

10 RAP-Chem 48hr 500mb O3 FX initialized 00Z 04/03/2018

11 RAP-Chem 12hr Surface O3 FX initialized 00Z 04/03/2018

12 GEO-CAPE O3 OSSE Flow Chart 12

13 Data Assimilation GEO-CAPE WRF-CHEM/GSI (3D-VAR) Regional/Urban O3 OSSE Study July 2011 Control Synthetic OMI (using retrieval efficiency factors and apriori) Multiple Regression GEOCAPE UV synthetic retrievals Multiple Regression GEOCAPE UV-VIS synthetic retrievals TEMPO All GEOCAPE experiments include: 1 hour cycling Inflation of background error covariances near surface Application of tangent linear observation operator (AK) in GSI enter loop Results compared to nature run integrated over atmospheric layers and at AIRNow surface sites 13

14 Impact of Assimilation: sfc-6km Results TEMPO 14

15 Impact of UVVIS Assimilation: Rural Sites 15

16 Impact of UVVIS Assimilation: Rural Sites 16

17 Summary Current NOAA operational and research SI forecasting systems rely on Microwave/UV (data assimilation) and infrared (trajectory forecasts) satellite retrievals to constrain initial ozone forecasts TEMPO UV-Vis ozone retrievals should provide improved constraints on ozone the lower troposphere and improved (hourly) sampling over CONUS