Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses: the case of France under ambitious renewable energy penetration scenarios

Transcription

1 Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses: the case of France under ambitious renewable energy penetration scenarios ETSAP Workshop October 22-23, 2015 Sophia-Antipolis, France Vincent KRAKOWSKI, Nadia Maïzi, Edi Assoumou, Vincent Mazauric MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, Center for Applied Mathematics (CMA) Chair modeling for sustainable development Sophia Antipolis, France

2 1. Context of the study Increasing role of renewable energy in power production Global power production by fuels in 2014 Share of renewable energy in power production per European country in 2014 Source: REN 21 Global Status Report : 27% European power production by fuels in % 2030: 40% Source: ENTSOE Electricity in Europe 2014 ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 2 / 20

3 OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. A TIMES model for French power sector 3. Scenarios and results 4. Conclusion and perspectives ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 3 / 20

4 A TIMES MODEL FOR FRENCH POWER SECTOR Emissions Reference Energy System of TIMES-FR-ELEC Demand Ressources Power plants and storage technologies Power grid Time description: : 13 «annual» periods Each annual period divided into 84 «infra-annual» sub-periods ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 4 / 20

5 A TIMES MODEL FOR FRENCH POWER SECTOR Modeling VRE in TIMES Jω m dω m = P m P e P l Variable renewable characteristics dt Modeling technics Variability Load curves (wind, PV) Lower predictability Non-dispatchable No inherent inertia Low production events time-slices No contribution to peak load and reserves No contribution to power system reliability Dispersed Work in progress Y. Rebours, A comprehensive assessment of markets for frequency and voltage control ancillary services. PhD thesis (2008) ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 5 / 20

6 A TIMES MODEL FOR FRENCH POWER SECTOR General assumptions used in this study DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS POTENTIALS ASSUMPTIONS Reference scenario BP RTE RES potentials (ADEME, 2012) (2012: > 2050: 519 TWh) New Interconnections: RTE Demand elasticity: per sector scenarios (- 8% in 2050) Rhythms of installation for new Demand-Response: EV (50%), technologies commercial & residential (10%) Extension of current nuclear CO 2 emissions power plants (40 ans --> 60 ans) COSTS ASSUMPTIONS Ressources prices (WEO, 2013) Investment and operational costs of power plants, storage capacities and new lines < 2012 value (39 Mt) POWER CURVES Wind and solar production (RTE, 2012 data) Hydropower: seasonal curves Nuclear power: Availability factor min and max (45% - 95%) ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 6 / 20

7 OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. A TIMES model for French power sector 3. Scenarios and results 4. Conclusion and perspectives ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 7 / 20

8 Description of the 5 studied scenarios SCENARIOS AND RESULTS Scenarios Years BAU objectives 60RES RES RES 2050 Nuclear production constraint 2025 and after NA 50% 50% 50% 50% RES penetration objectives 2020 NA 27% 27% 27% 27% 2030 NA 40% 40% 40% 40% 2035 NA 40% 40% 40% 55% 2040 NA 40% 40% 50% 70% 2045 NA 40% 45% 65% 85% 2050 NA 40% 60% 80% 100% Law on energy transition (2015/08/18) More ambitious targets for RES penetration ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 8 / 20

9 Evolution of the power mix in the 5 scenarios SCENARIOS AND RESULTS Exports / Demand Elasticity ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 9 / 20

10 Installed capacity in the 5 scenarios SCENARIOS AND RESULTS x 2 x 3 54 GW 34 GW 49 GW ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 10 / 20

11 Profitability issue for fossil-based power plants SCENARIOS AND RESULTS ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 11 / 20

12 A completely new power production profile SCENARIOS AND RESULTS ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 12 / 20

13 Total discounted cost of each scenario compared to BAU total discounted cost Evolution of costs in the different scenarios SCENARIOS AND RESULTS 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 13 / 20

14 SCENARIOS AND RESULTS Renevable Energy penetration causes a serious drop in kinetik reserves Evolution of kinetik reserves deviation for each scenario relative to the minimum 2012 value ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 14 / 20

15 OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. A TIMES model for French power sector 3. Scenarios and results 4. Conclusion and perspectives ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 15 / 20

16 CONCLUSION Main results High renewable energy penetration in the French power system seems technically feasible (for a slightly reduced demand) BUT with: A shift in power exchanges with neighboring countries The massive installation of new power plants The need for new dispatchable power plants (biomass, fossil) but which ought to produce very few 11%-31% cost increase compared to a BAU scenario The deterioration of power system s margins to deal with disturbances ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 16 / 20

17 CONCLUSION Perspectives: Endogenization of kinetik indicators (1/2) We aim at building renewable energy penetration scenarios that enable maintaining kinetik reserves above a certain level Making the calculation of kinetik indicator endogenous in the model Discretizing the model: description of each unit of power production and discret investments (Remark: H kin varies non-linearly with units capacity) Need a good description of the current power system and the disaggregation of future power plants according to their size Database Platts (2013) for France 1. Classification List of power plants by kind of fuel, kind of power production and size of the unit 3842 operating units For the BY power system 2. Creation of VT file List of process, their commodities in and out, their capacity and the value of H kin for each 729 processes ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 17 / 20

18 Perspectives: Endogenization of kinetik indicators (2/2) CONCLUSION Such an endogenization has already been realized in the CMA for the Reunion Island: It has been showed that intermittent renewable energy share could reach up to 60% without deteriorating too much kinetik reserves Kinetik indicator in 2030 for teh different hours of the day for 4 typical days in 3 scenarios Source: S. Bouckaert, PhD thesis, CMA, Mines ParisTech, 2013 ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 18 / 20

19 Perspectives: A new indicator for assessing power systems robustness (1/2) The kinetik indicator can be seen as an image of the reliability of a power system as it assesses how this power system will be able to meet demand when there is a mismatch between production and consumption. But the calculation of this indicator is based on the conservation of synchronism over the power system: without synchronism, kinetik reserves from the different power plants could not be aggregated. Based on the Kuramoto model which depicts the dynamics of non-linear coupled oscillators connected through a network (Kuramoto, 1975), and more recent work (Filatrella et al., 2008, Dörfler and Bullo, 2013) we use a new indicator which assesses the stability of synchronal states of power systems. (1) ΔP ε G λ 2 G 1 CONCLUSION Where G is the graph representing the power grid, ε G its edges, P the vector of productions and consumptions and ΔP ε G a norm on the differences between adjacent nodes production/consumption. λ 2 G is the algebric connectivity of the graph G. ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 19 / 20

20 CONCLUSION Perspectives: A new indicator for assessing power systems robustness (2/2) The condition (1) can be understood as the power grid connectivity must dominate the power system heterogenity. A first analysis using this condition on the current Reunion power system has been conducted: ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 20 / 20

21 Thank you for your attention Any questions? Related published or under-publication work: Krakowski et al. A prospective analysis of contrasted renewable energy penetration targets in French power system. Publication under process Krakowski et al. Enjeux d une transition vers une production d électricité 100% renouvelable en France. Revue de l Energie, to be published (French only) Drouineau et al. Increasing shares of intermittent sources in Reunion Island: Impacts on the future reliability of power supply. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2015) Maïzi et al. Future prospects for nuclear power in France. Applied Energy (2014) Bouckaert et al. Expanding renewable energy by implementing Demand response and Expanding renewable energy by implementing dynamic support through storage technologies Energy Procedia (2014) Drouineau et al. Impacts of intermittent sources on the quality of power supply: The key role of reliability indicators. Applied Energy (2014) ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis