Background. Atmospheric Concentration CO 2 (ppmv) year

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2 Background Concerns about the global warming issue due to the increases in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration Rapidly growing energy demand projected in developing countries 38 Atmospheric Concentration CO 2 (ppmv) year 2

3 Tool to develop energy scenarios Global Energy Model The purpose of the model is to obtain an insight into concrete normative images of our future energy system for long-term secure and sustainable development of human society. The input data of the model are based on academic literature and governmental reports available. The energy model can take account of various physical and economic conditions consistent with the above mentioned data. 3

4 Energy System Configuration of the Model 4

5 Reference Energy Demand Scenario and Energy Saving 2 World Energy Demand by Type (Gtoe/year) Gaseous Fuel Demand Liquid Fuel Demand Electricity Demand Solid Fuel Demand year Reference Energy Demand Scenario by IPCC Energy Price P Energy Demand Curve Loss of Consumer Utility P D D D :Reference Energy Demand Energy Demand 5

6 Fossil Fuel Resources Total: 3,749Gtoe Coal Total: 47Gtoe (Unit Gtoe:Giga tons of oil equivalent ) Crude Oil Total: 426Gtoe Natural Gas 6

7 Renewable Energy Resources Annual Average Wind Speed Annual Average Insolation Distribution of Wind Energy Distribution of Solar Energy Wind Energy Potential Unit: TWh/year Solar Energy Potential Unit: TWh/year 7

8 CO 2 Capture and Storage CO2 Capture Plant Thermal Power Plant CO2 Tanker Offshore Base CO 2 CO 2 Injection Pipe Under Ground 2,~3,m Geological Storage Ocean Storage (Shallow Sea) Ocean Storage (Deep Sea) Injection Pipe Depth in 3,7m CO 2 Bradshaw, J. and T. Dance, 24: Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO2 for the world s sedimentary basins and regional source to sink matching. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Technologies 8

9 Results (1) Coal Production and Transportation in 25 Reference Case in 25 Coal productions are conducted intensively in specific regions, and mainly transported by sea. 9

10 Results (2) Oil Production and Transportation in 25 Reference Case in 25 Oil is mainly produced in the Middle East, and transported all over the world by tanker. 1

11 Results (3) Gas Production and Transportation in 25 Reference Case in 25 Natural gas productions are distributed in several regions, and transported mainly by pipeline. 11

12 Results (4) Primary Energy Production Fossil fuels are dominant, and coal production increases in the latter half of 21 st Century. Non fossil energies (in particular Biomass) increases in the latter half of 21 st Century. Primary energy production(gtoe/yr) Nuclear Crude Oil Oilshale Natural Gas Photovoltaics Reference Case Coal Oilsand Hydro&Geoth Biomass Unconv.gas Primary energy production(gtoe/yr) Crude Oil Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Biomass Photovoltaics Wind Hydro&Geoth Unconv.gas Oilsand Controlled Case (55ppmv) Oilshale 12

13 Results (5) Electric Power Generation Coal fired generation is dominant, because of abundant amount of resource. Nuclear and Renewable generations increase in the latter half of 21 st Century. Electricity generation(pwh/yr) 12 1 Photovoltaics Wind Hydro&Geoth. Biomass Fired Nuclear Nuclear 4 Coal Fired 4 Oil Fired Oil Fired 2 2 Coal Fired Ngas Fired Ngas Fired Electricity generation(pwh/yr) 12 1 Photovoltaics Reference Case Controlled Case (55ppmv) Wind Hydro&Geoth. Biomass Fired IGCC CO 2 capt. 13

14 Results (6) Final Energy Consumption In Controlled Case, the gross energy consumption is reduced by energy conservation. Electricity consumption continues to increase during the 21 st Century. Biomass derived liquid fuel and Hydrogen are used mainly in the latter half of 21 st Century. Final energy consumption(gtoe/yr) Biomass Liquid Electricity Biomass Solid Oil Products Coal Natural Gas Final energy consumption(gtoe/yr) Biomass Liquid Biomass Solid Electricity Oil Products DME Coal Natural Gas Hydrogen Reference Case Controlled Case (55ppmv) 14

15 Results (7) CO 2 Emission and Storage CO 2 Balance(Gt-C/yr) Emission Emission from Direct Fuel Use EOR Emission from Chemical Process Emission from Power Generation Depleted Gas Wells Aquifers Ocean

16 Results (8) CO 2 Capture and Storage CCS technologies in 21 Aquifer storage and Ocean storage are conducted all over the world. 16

17 Results (9) Technology Shares and Mitigation Cost Contribution by Type of Technologies CO 2 Emissions and Reduction (Gt-C/year) Energy Consrv. Fuel Switching CO 2 Cap&Storage Net Emissions year CO 2 Emissions Reduction Cost (% relative to GDP) Mitigation Costs Total Cost Marginal Cost year Marginal Cost for CO 2 Emissions Reduction ($/t-c) 17

18 Concluding Remarks Mitigation of global warming is technically feasible. Oil and Natural Gas may remain major primary energy source over the 21 st century. The production of coal may be affected significantly by the climate policy. The contribution of solar and wind energy is estimated to be rather small. This is because the limited shares of the renewable power in power systems are assumed. The contribution of nuclear may be limited, unless FBR is deployed. CO 2 capture and storage may play a big role in the second half of the 21 st century in the CO 2 concentration controlled case. No specific technology can solve the problem. 18