Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative

Transcription

1 Scaling-up CCS: From Megatonnes to Gigatonnes Climate Change - Copenhagen 2009 Howard Herzog MIT March 11, 2009

2 Overview CCS in a Mitigation Portfolio CCS Today The Scale-up Challenge Critical Challenges Addressing the Challenges

3 Newsweek, April 16, 2007

4 The MIT Coal Study Released March 14, 2007 On web at mit.edu/coal We conclude that CO 2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is the critical enabling technology that would reduce CO 2 emissions significantly while also allowing coal to meet the world s pressing energy needs.

5 GHGT-9 Keynote Talk

6 CCS in a Mitigation Portfolio In order to meet the stated goal of significant cuts (50%-80%) in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 CCS is not a silver bullet However, it may be a keystone technology We will need to capture and store Gts of CO 2 every year by 2050

7 CCS Today All major components of a carbon capture and sequestration system are commercially available today. However, integrated, large-scale CCS systems are not commercially available One stop shopping Subsurface vendors Guarantees

8 CO 2 Capture at a Power Plant Source: ABB Lummus

9 US CO 2 Pipeline Network 3400 miles of CO 2 pipelines in US 2003 by the Chemical Economics Handbook SRI International

10 CO 2 Injection Experience Acid Gas Injection Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Natural lg Gas Storage Commercial CCS Projects (4 worldwide)

11 CO 2 Injection Experience

12 CO 2 Injection Projects Million Tonne per Year Scale Project Leader Location CO 2 Source CO 2 Sink Sleipner (1996) Weyburn Statoil Pan (2000) Canadian In Salah (2004) Snovit BP North Sea Norway Saskatchewan Canada Algeria Barents Sea Statoil (2008) Norway Gas Processing Coal Gasification Gas Processing Gas Processing Deep Brine Formation EOR Depleted Gas Reservoir Deep Brine Formation

13 Critical Question We have yet to build a large-scale (>1Mt CO 2 /yr) power plant CCS demonstration Is it reasonable to expect to build 100s of power plants with CCS by 2050 when we are having so much trouble building just one today?

14 Challenges for Scale-up Costs Infrastructure Subsurface Uncertainty Capacity Long-term Integrity Regulatory Framework Long-term Liability Public Acceptance

15 CCS Costs Considerable uncertainty in cost estimates Volatility in markets Recent data sparse Dealing with first-of-a-kind technology

16 Estimated CCS Costs for Coal Estimated CCS Costs for coal: additional i $40 per MWh to cost of generation $60-65/tonne 65/tonne CO 2 avoided This cost assumes: 2007$ Nth plant 90% capture includes transport and storage ($10/tonne CO 2 avoided) Today s Td technology (i.e., no technological lb breakthroughs kh h required) Regulatory issues resolved without imposing significant new burdens Operations at scale For details see:

17 McKinsey and Company Report $75-115/tCO 2 $45-65/tCO2 From Carbon Capture & Storage: Assessing the Economics, McKinsey and Company report

18 Addressing Costs Large-scale demos Reduce first mover costs Also helps in addressing other scale-up challenges Continued R&D Improve existing technologies Develop new technologies Policies to promote deployment

19 Large-scale Demos Characteristics On order of 10 worldwide Scale of a million tons per year In a variety of geographies Recent Activity EU: 300 million permits from ETS US: Support in stimulus bill Australia: Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute

20 Capture Technology Pathways Post- Combustion Oxy- Combustion Pre- Combustion Plusses Compatible with existing infrastructure; retrofits; flexibility Potentially less expensive than post- combustion; retrofits Projected lowest incremental cost for capture Minuses Current methods have high energy penalties Cost of oxygen; lack of experience Slow progress of IGCC

21 Policies to Promote Deployment A cap-and and-trade system will not be sufficient early on Potential policies include Direct subsidies Bonus permits Tax credits Loan guarantees

22 Contact Information Howard Herzog Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Energy Initiative Room E19-370L Cambridge, MA Phone: Web Site: sequestration.mit.edu