Seeing is believing synergy amongst Lake Erie plankton and nutrients, exotic species, and climate change

Transcription

1 Seeing is believing synergy amongst Lake Erie plankton and nutrients, exotic species, and climate change Joseph D. Conroy, Douglas D. Kane, Erin L. Quinlan, and David A. Culver Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio The Fourth Biennial Conference of the Lake Erie Millennium Network 28 February 2006

2 Acknowledgements Funding sources Ohio Division of Wildlife, Department of Natural Resources United States Environmental Protection Agency Ohio Lake Erie Commission, Lake Erie Protection Fund Ohio Sea Grant College Program/ F.T. Stone Laboratory The Ohio State University Collaborators Murray Charlton, Dave Dolan, Bob Heath, Bill Edwards, Matt Thomas, LETS collaborators Lab Technicians Nate Gargasz, Erin Haas, Ruth Briland, Valerie Crane, Erin Greenlee, Kyla Hershey, Caitlin McDonnell, Jeff Niehaus, Maggie Spoo, Elaina Smith, and Christine Sweeney Field Assistants Mindy Beam, Mark Dufour, Shannon Percival

3 LETS Observations 1. Historically low [chlorophyll a] 2. Increased [TP] w/o increased external TP load 3. Continued central basin hypolimnetic hypoxia Our Contribution Investigate 1. to determine relationship with 2. & 3. Merge historical data w/ Lake Erie Plankton Abundance Survey Phytoplankton DeVault & Rockwell GLNPO Rpt. Makarewicz. 1993a. JGLR. Makarewicz et al JGLR. Munawar & Munawar J. Fish. Res. Board Can. Zooplankton Bean M.S. Thesis, OSU. Makarewicz. 1993b. JGLR. Watson & Carpenter J. Fish. Res. Board Can. Weisgerber M.S. Thesis, OSU.

4 Hypotheses H 0 : No change H TP : External Total Phosphorus load controls Total Phytoplankton Biomass H ZM : Zebra Mussels (dreissenids) removed TPP H Clim : Climatological factors affect TPP

5 Historical TPP Data

6 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Historical TPP Data 4 6 Spring WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Summer WB CB EB 4 Basin 2 0

7 Historical TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 0 WB CB EB WB CB EB 0 Basin Basin From Munawar & Munawar 1976

8 Historical TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) / / /89 WB CB EB 83-88/ / /89 WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From Makarewicz et al. 1999

9 Historical TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) /89 89/ / / /89 89/90-93 WB CB EB 83-88/89 89/ / / /89 89/90-93 WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From Makarewicz et al. 1999

10 Predictors & Effects Matrix Period Predictors

11 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT

12 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT Effect on TPP

13 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors

14 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction

15 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed

16 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed

17 Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication

18 Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication

19 Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication

20 Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication

21 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed =/ =/ =/ ?( )

22 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed =/ =/ =/ ?( )

23 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed Invaded, Max Density = </= =

24 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed =/ =/ Invaded, Max Density =/ = </= ?( ) =

25 Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) Year Data from Station , NOAA NOS CO-OPS

26 Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) Year Data from Station , NOAA NOS CO-OPS

27 Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) Year Data from Station , NOAA NOS CO-OPS

28 Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) Year Data from Station , NOAA NOS CO-OPS

29 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 = =

30 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = =/ =/ Invaded, Max Density = =/ = </= ?( ) =

31 Precipitation Total Precipitation (cm) Year Data from Station , NCDC

32 Precipitation Total Precipitation (cm) Year Data from Station , NCDC

33 Precipitation Total Precipitation (cm) Year Data from Station , NCDC

34 Precipitation Total Precipitation (cm) Year Data from Station , NCDC

35 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed = ?

36 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = =/ - = =/ Invaded, Max Density = =/ = </= ?( ) = ?

37 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 Highest =/ < =/ = =/ = < ?( )?(>)

38 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed Invaded, Max Density < = = </= > = =

39 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 = Highest = </= = > > < ??

40 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest =/ - = < 19 - </= =/ Invaded, Max Density = = < > =/ = = = > </= < > < ?( ) = ??( ) = ?

41 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < =/ Invaded, Max Density = = < > =/ = = = > =/> </= < > < ?( ) = ??( ) = ? =/> ?

42 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < 19 < =/ Invaded, Max Density = = < > < =/ = = = > =/> </= < > < ?( ) = ??( ) = ? =/> ?

43 Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < 19 < =/ Invaded, Max Density = = < > < =/ = = = > =/> </= < > < ?( ) = ??( ) = ? =/> ?

44 Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) /89 89/ /89 89/ /89 89/90-93 WB CB EB 83-88/89 89/ /89 89/ /89 89/90-93 WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin

45 Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) /89 89/ /89 89/ /89 89/ WB CB EB 83-88/89 89/ /89 89/ /89 89/ WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS

46 Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) /89 89/ / / /89 89/ WB CB EB /89 89/ / / / / WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS

47 Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) / / / / /89 89/ WB CB EB /89 89/ /89 89/ /89 89/ WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS Conroy et al. In press. JGLR

48 Predictors, Effects, & Results Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < 19 < =/ Invaded, Max Density = = < > < =/ = = = > =/> </= < > < < << >> > ?( ) = ??( ) = ? =/> ? =

49 A similar analysis for zooplankton?

50 Total Crustacean Zooplankton Biomasses 0.4 Spring Summer 0.4 TCZP (dry mg L -1 ) WB CB EB WB CB EB TCZP (dry mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS Conroy et al. In press. JGLR

51 What do chlorophyll a concentrations tell us about TPP?

52 Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP 80 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) From LEPAS

53 Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP 80 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) From LEPAS

54 Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP 80 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) TPP = x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < R 2 = 0.04 From LEPAS

55 Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < R 2 = 0.04 From LEPAS

56 Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < R 2 = 0.04 From LEPAS

57 Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < R 2 = 0.04 ln TPP = x ln [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 77.65, P < R 2 = 0.07 From LEPAS

58 Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < R 2 = 0.04 ln TPP = x ln [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 77.65, P < R 2 = 0.07 From LEPAS Conroy et al. In press. JGLR

59 Cylindrospermopsis spp. in Lake Erie Sandusky West Bay Site 29 July 2005 Conroy et al. in prep.

60 Other Hypotheses for LE Change Dreissenid nutrient remineralization Particulate Soluble? Nearshore/Offshore differences? Disparate effect on N-pool Why Microcystis spp. now vs. N-fixers in 1970 s? Conroy et al Freshw. Biol. 50: Algal Loading PP from Sandusky Bay affects offshore dynamics More on these topics at IAGLR 2006 Conroy et al. in prep.

61 Future Research Needs Continue LEPAS Quantify annual plankton spatial/temporal variability Further investigation of climatic factors Include water temperature Chl a:tpp in Lake Erie Taxa contributions Seasonal variation Ecosystem nutrient analysis Hierarchical process modeling Near/offshore? Trophic levels?

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