Overview of the research work

Transcription

1 10 th IAEE EUROPEAN CONFERENCE 7-10 September 2009 VIENNA, AUSTRIA Caspian - Black Sea - SE European Gas Corridors & the LNG parameter: a Scenario Bundles Approach Konstantinos G. GKONIS Harilaos N. PSARAFTIS Laboratory for Maritime Transport School of Naval Architecture & Marine Engineering National Technical University of Athens Overview of the research work! Natural gas trade:! pipelines! LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas 2

2 Overview of the research work! A Game Theoretic analysis approach to! Competition & Strategic Investments in! LNG shipping business! National energy strategies: gas supply & LNG " this presentation 3 Overview of the research work & LNG National level decision-makers Strategic decisions: LNG / pipeline infrastructure Energy security: gas supply cut-off for commercial / (geo)political nature reasons Our approach: high-level and strategic parameters well-defined realistic scenarios practical conclusions for the involved players 4

3 About the scenario bundle method! The scenario bundle method was initially developed by R. Selten in the 1970s to address international conflict situations! A game theoretic modelling approach! In general! topical models (region / time)! possible future developments! a systematic procedure for the integration of judgments 5 About the scenario bundle method! Actors & goals! rational decision makers / objective (payoff) measured in a utility scale! Graphical representation: game tree (dynamic games)! Origin of the tree " initial situation / option! Stopping principles " end nodes (blind alley / inferiority / normal)! Plausibility of choices (realism / desirability)! Consequences payoffs! Judgments & analysis! backward induction process! Inferior choices are crossed out! the equilibrium solution 6

4 About the scenario bundle method Players 1 to n; Game tree K; Nodes xεx, m choices at x: Xm; Choices at x: A(x); X 0 end- points; Sub- treekx of K! A scenario bundle B=(N,K,c,h):! c decision point function: assigns a player c(x) to every xεx \X 0! h = (hi,...,hn) payoff functions: ordinal utility indices representing preference rankings at the end-points! Strategy: function s which assigns a decision at x to every xεx\xo (decision s(x): local strategy at x).! Perfect equilibrium strategy combination s* : if for every xεx\xo the decision s*(x) is optimal with respect to s*.! If s* x is the restriction of s* to Kx, then s* x is a perfect equilibrium strategy combination of the subgame Bx. " use of backward induction for finding a perfect equilibrium strategy combination (equilibrium) 7! Background! over a century of struggle for control of the oil export routes! this analysis examines the natural gas corridors (pipeline and LNG)! A complex strategic problem! Geopolitical! Energy security! International (spheres of influence) & regional conflicts! Diplomatic! Technical - cost 8

5 ! Infrastructure! existing & planned! Players! strategic goals / interests! The LNG parameter 9! Infrastructure! existing & planned! Players! strategic goals / interests! The LNG parameter 10

6 ! year 2015 initial situation (illustrative scenario bundle) corridor Tabriz-Erzerum SCP Nabucco South Stream TGI Blue Stream LNG Revythoussa LNG Aliaga LNG Marmara LNG Kavala Supply (capacity) bcm p.a (30) 20 (30) (6) 6 5? (6) 11!Extra players:! USA & Russia!Initial option! cut-off of gas supply to SCP from Turkmenistan 12

7 13! Utility index (function) 14

8 ! Arrays of payoffs 15 16

9 Russia (2) Greece (4) No supply Supply of +10 bcm through South Stream Supply of +6 bcm through TGI from LNG Kavala No supply through TGI Partial gas deficit in EU market (-11 bcm) / no gas deficit in Greek market : 110 : 95 : 84 : + 60 : 56 Gas deficit in EU market (-17 bcm) / no gas deficit in Greek market 1 : : 35 3 : : 6 5 : 32! Backward induction process No supply through TGI Partial gas deficit in EU market (-7 bcm) / no gas deficit in Greek market 1 : 70 2 : : 52 4 : 6 5 : 117 Greece (4) Supply of +6 bcm through TGI from LNG Kavala Partial gas deficit in EU market (-1 bcm) / no gas deficit in Greek market 1 : 10 2 : : 34 4 : : 141 =(+10)*10 =-10*9-5*

10 19!Strategic insights (of the specific scenario bundle)! value of South Stream as a base source of gas! role of LNG supplies, as a marginal yet decisive gas source! proposed strategic investment: LNG terminal at Kavala- Greece! a dynamic interference of the U.S. following such a crisis may not be optimal (based on given assumptions) 20

11 ! Sensitivity analysis! additional assumptions regarding the preferences of Russia and USA " equilibrium path diverted to Sub-tree II-2a 21 Conclusions! What: decision- making, planning, and analysis tool! Who: ministries, national or regional authorities, national or international companies, and think- tanks! Where: Gas supply: future developments / crisis events! LNG: flexibility / diversification / security of supply! How: strategic dimensions : geopolitical, commercial, conflict / crisis situations! critical parameters in a systematic way / concrete logical steps! analogy with a chess player! plans ahead - predictive spirit! selection of possibilities - criteria of plausibility! depth of explorations - stopping principles! efficient play in hope for success 22

12 THANK YOU! Contact: Konstantinos G. GKONIS: Laboratory for Maritime Transport NTUA: 23