INCREASED ELECTRICITY USE A SMARTER ENERGY TRANSITION

Transcription

1 INCREASED ELECTRICITY USE A SMARTER ENERGY TRANSITION SAEE, Luleå August 24, 2016 Torbjörn Wahlborg, Head of Business Area Generation

2 FACILITATING AN ENERGY TRANSITION ENERGY YOU WANT Going from a traditional utility to an active partner in the energy transition Energy you want 2 Title of presentation Author YYYY.MM.DD

3 THE SWEDISH ENERGY AGREEMENT Abolished nuclear tax from 2017 and adjusted Nuclear Waste Fund fee Reduced hydropower realestate tax starting 2017 Commitment to RES and the TGC system additional 18TWh RES by 2030

4 CHALLENGES IN THE SWEDISH ENERGY SYSTEM Over supply of energy in Sweden Electricity generation in Sweden (TWh) Consumption Export Nuclear Thermal RES Hydro Additional 18 TWh Renewables*: Export or shut down power plants? Source: Svenska Kraftnäts and Vattenfall calculations * Swedish RES target based on Swedish Energy Agreement Shortage of capacity in southern Sweden 5 0 Reliable capacity** in SE price areas 3+4 (GW) GW Peak demand (10 year winter) Import Nuclear Thermal*** RES Transmission from SE price area Hydro Increasingly important to set target for security of supply ** Reliability according Svenska Kraftnät s assumptions for the winter: 85% hydro, 90% nuclear, wind 6%, back pressure 76%, reserves 90%. NO1-SE3 50%, DE-SE4 40%, the remaining cables 0% 4 *** Includes Power Reserve (1000MW) and disturbance reserve (200 MW)

5 Electricity Fossil fuels Biofuels ELECTRIFICATION OF SWEDISH INDUSTRY Today Iron/steel: Green hydrogen instead of coal Future ( ) Cement: Electrical heating and biofuels/oxyfuel+ccs Energy (TWh) CO2e* (MT) *CO2 equivalents Refinery: Green hydrogen instead of natural gas Energy (TWh) CO2e* (MT) Sources: Naturvårdsverket; Energimyndigheten and Vattenfall analyses based on discussions with industry representatives

6 ENABLING ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION Emission target: Miljömålsberedningen 17,079 5,867 Electricity demand from electric cars 2,590 Charging solutions for companies and private customers Fast charging network for private and commercial vehicles (GWh) 2030 (GWh) Charging infrastructure for city buses and trucks

7 RES SHOULD EXPAND WISELY Transmission between price areas (sample day 2016) Electricity transmission Connectors under construction Planned connectors Sources: March 1, 2016 Nord Pool Spot and ENTSO-E 36 GWh 138 GWh 98 GWh Where? Best to build in southern Sweden What? New CHP s can provide reliable capacity When? Later rather than sooner Important to get interconnectors in place Take advantage of technology development Review the current Tradable Green Certificate system to steer RES investments wisely

8 SWEDISH WIND POWER RECORD Source: Svenska kraftnät 8

9 JULY 20, 2016 Source: Svenska kraftnät 9

10 SWEDISH NUCLEAR UNTIL MID-2040S Major modernization programs completed in Enhanced safety, stable operations and higher availability Decision to close Ringhals 1 and 2, 2020 and Five Vattenfall reactors can operate into the 2040s Independent Core Cooling to be implemented at Forsmark 1, 2 and 3. Decision pending for Ringhals 3 and 4 The nuclear fleet is set for long-term CO2- neutral operations. Swedish final repository solution for spent nuclear fuel coming into place 10

11 HYDRO POWER = REGULATING POWER Stornorrfors fish ladder Vattenfall owns over 100 Swedish whereof 50 large-scale HPPs producing TWh/year Major dam reinvestments and renewal programs have been concluded for safety, the environment and to secure future production Investments in water regulation, fish breeding, fish ladders, etc. Measures pending for new Water Framework Directive Hydro power is golden egg of production for the energy transition and beyond. A truly renewable regulating energy source

12 TRANSITION FROM A POINT OF STRENGTH SWEDEN: One of the world s most stable & reliable energy systems (IEA): Climate and environment; Security-of-supply; Competitiveness Sweden can now move further along its path to decouple GDP growth and CO2 emissions