CAS president s report

Transcription

1 WMO CAS president s report Øystein Hov CAS MG11 Geneva 1-3 June 2016 WMO: Research Dept.

2 Terms of reference for CAS (from CASXVI report): Decide and guide its activities between CAS sessions; Review its strategic planning and work programmes, assist in adoption and implementation; Responsible for the excellence, relevance and impact of the work of the Commission and for the transfer of research results, techniques and information between Members in atmospheric and related sciences, including environment; To review and propose changes in the internal structure and working methods of the Commission, including its relationship with other bodies, both inside and outside of WMO Focal point for contributions to the WMO strategic planning process and for communication on relevant scientific matters; To consult with the president on the membership of SSCs and chairpersons of the working bodies, upon the recommendation of the SSC chairpersons; To ensure gender and youth mainstreaming in its structures and activities. test footer 2

3 WMO Strategic Plan WMO Cg17 final report 3

4 WMO Strategic Plan Expected Results Cg17-report p 574 test footer 4

5 WMO Strategic Plan

6 CAS Societal challenges a 10y vision High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global change Water: Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved DRR and resource management Integrated GHG Information System: Serving society and supporting policy Aerosols: Impacts on air quality, weather and climate Urbanization: Research and services for megacities and large urban complexes Evolving Technologies: Their impact on science and its use Seamless across time and space scales, earth system components WMO; Research 1

7 Science for service Quality, relevance and impact User interactions forces exploration of «What works», which can be quite different from what WMO Congress or NMHSs push Input information Core information Model calculations integrating basic data and process knowledge User customized information (user products) Value chain Basic data from: Observations Experiments Process description Output from other science disciplines or services IA, socio-economics publica(ons Core Services Academia R&D Downstream Services data policy services The public specialized operational users Other branches of research or innovation

8 NWP and Climate Services Produc(on chain driven by R&D and users - Merging of R&D and forecasters cultures Research topics Observa(ons, Emisson fluxes, Other boundary condi(ons Process dexcrip(on Dynamics Physics, snow, ice, Chemistry Predictability Earth System Model formula(on Na(onal research fundning EU-H2020, C3S Networks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP Dataassimila(on S2S, decadal Na(onal research fundning EU-H2020, C3S Networks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP EPS Na(onal research fundning EU-H2020, C3S Networks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP Postprocessing RCM, ESD: General public Energy sector Floods Air quality Ecosystems Shipping Transport sector Offshore Marine resources waves Storm surges Agriculture and food Tourism Emergency preparedness HiW C3S, Energy companies, transport etc CORDEX, CMIP6, IPCC NCAR, Observa(ons Verifica(on Backend Frontend Human interface All specialised users Users Network projects Thema(c orienta(on R&D, IT geoscience focus, user competence, communica(on skills, data policy Distributed metadata governed data management NRT-flow and storage

9 Global number of casualties by decade for (left) and total economic losses (right) by decade and by hazard type in USD billions adjusted to 2011 for (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database) (Source: WMO and CRED, 2013) Science for Service - risk reduc(on test footer 9

10 Distribu(on of number of extreme events, fatali(es, total and insured losses in respect to the different groups of natural perils Temperature extremes an easy early target for ac6on (building codes, good emergency procedures) Prepared by Professor Peter Höppe, Member of the WG, MunicRe/The German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina

11 Evolu6on of environmental policy. Today: The policy mosaic SOURCES ENERGY AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY EMITTED COMPOUNDS SULPHUR DIOXIDE AMMONIA NITROGEN OXIDES EFFECT-CAUSING POLLUTANTS S DEPOSITION N DEPOSITION SULPHUR DIOXIDE EFFECTS/RECEPTORS ACIDIFICATION EUTROPHICATION HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS SURFACE WATERS MARINE ECOSYSTEMS TRAFFIC NITROGEN DIOXIDE MATERIALS VOC PARTICLES YIELD LOSSES CROPS P Grennfelt OZONE FORESTS CLIMATE

12 Bridging science and policy Basic science- Discovery phase Observa(ons Models Processes Mature science results. Consensus Bridging concepts: Blame matrices Cri-cal loads Gap closure Integrated assessment modelling The economic perspec(ve to design effec$ve, economically sensible, and poli$cally pragma$c solu$ons Policy CLRTAP 8 protocols Consolida-on of current mosaic of environmental legisla-on, interrela(on air quality, reac(ve nitrogen, acid deposi(on, climate SLCF; LLCF); food, energy, climate Law on the Protec(on of the Atmosphere (UN ILC, in progress) Linkages: Horizontal: environment, human rights, trade, investment Ver(cal: global-regional-na(onal The human dimension: health, wellbeing, prosperity Involve the staeholders: state, non-state actors business, industry, ci(zens, organiza(ons

13 WCRP Structure Joint Scien6fic CommiQee Modeling Advisory Council Joint Planning Staff Data Advisory Council Working Groups on: Coupled Modeling (WGCM), Numerical Experiment (WGNE), Regional Climate (WGRC), Seasonal to Interannual Predic(on (WGSIP) CliC CLIVAR GEWEX SPARC CORDEX Cryosphere- Climate Ocean- Atmosphere Land- Atmosphere Troposphere - Stratosphere Regional Climate Downscaling

14 WCRP Structure Joint Scien6fic CommiQee Modeling Advisory Council Joint Planning Staff Data Advisory Council CliC Working Groups on: Coupled Modeling (WGCM), Numerical Experiment (WGNE), Regional Climate (WGRC), Seasonal to Interannual Predic(on (WGSIP) CLIVAR GEWEX SPARC CORDEX Regional Sea-Level Change and Coastal Impacts Mel6ng Ice and Global Consequences Changes in Water Availability Cryosphere- Ocean- Land- Troposphere - Regional Climate Cloud Circula6on Atmosphere and Climate Atmosphere Sensi6vity Stratosphere Climate Understanding and Predic6ng Weather and Climate Extremes Downscaling Near-term Climate / Decadal Predic-on? Biogeochemical cycles?

15 GCOS: ECVs and Earth System Cycles Energy Water Carbon Challenge for CAS: How to grow together with those which feed on us (WCRP and GCOS)? GCOS Science Conf: talk by Alan Belward (JRC), figure from Han Dolman (team meeting, Ispra, Feb 2016)

16 What is WIGOS? WMO foundational activity addressing the observational needs of the weather, climate, water and environmental services of its Members A framework for integrating all WMO observing systems and WMO contributions to co-sponsored observing systems under a common regulatory and management framework WIGOS is not: Replacing or taking over existing observing systems, which will continue to be owned and operated by a diverse array of organizations and programmes, national as well as international.

17 WIGOS Component Systems Global Observing System (WWW/GOS) Observing component of Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) WMO Hydrological Observations (including WHYCOS) Observing component of Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW)

18 WIGOS Implementation Phase WMO 16th Congress (2011): Implementation of WIGOS Key deliverables for the 17th Congress (2015): Technical Regulations on WIGOS; link here Manual on WIGOS; link here WIGOS Metadata Standard; link here Regional Implementation Plans Proposal for the Pre-Operational Phase of WIGOS ( ) Challenge: Make WIGOS scalable and applicable throughout as the data legacy system for research and operational data, beyond WMO

19 Rolling Review of Requirements WMO Congress: All WMO (and co-sponsored) observing systems shall use the RRR to design networks, plan evolution and assess performance. The RRR is the process used by WMO to collect, vet and record user requirements for all WMO application areas and match them against observational capabilities Gap analysis results in Statement of Guidance, one per application area, that provides a narrative of how well a given application area is supported by WIGOS

20 WMO Application Areas listed in the RRR (March 2016) 1. Global numerical weather prediction (GNWP) 2. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (HRNWP) 3. Nowcasting and very short range forecasting (NVSRF) 4. Seasonal and inter-annual forecasting (SIAF) 5. Aeronautical meteorology 6. Forecasting atmospheric composition 7. Monitoring atmospheric composition 8. Atmospheric composition for urban applications 9. Ocean applications 10. Agricultural meteorology 11. Hydrology 12. Climate monitoring (as undertaken through GCOS) 13. Climate applications 14. Space weather Extend seamlessly to other fields?

21 Observing System Capabilities and Review tool (OSCAR) oscar.wmo.int The RRR is supported by three key databases of OSCAR: OSCAR/Requirements, in which technology free requirements are provided for each application area, expressed in units of geophysical variables (260 in total currently), not measurands; not just atmosphere, also terrestrial, ocean, cryosphere, OSCAR/Space, listing the capabilities of all satellite sensors, whether historical, operational or planned OSCAR/Surface, list surface-based capabilities; developed by MeteoSwiss for WMO, in beta-testing Together, OSCAR/Surface and OSCAR/Space provide a complete description of what WIGOS is

22 UN ILC / Advertent Climate Engineering (Geoengineering) - some op6ons Solar Radia(on Management Greenhouse Gas Removal Lenton & Vaughan (2009: ACP)

23 The various aspects of SRM geoengineering Climate science issues: Would it work? Technical issues: Is it feasible? Ethical issues: Do we have the right to do it? Legal issues: Who is responsible? Policy issues: How should it be regulated? Economic issues: Is it cost-effec(ve?

24 Oxford Principles: WMO Geoengineering to be regulated as a public good; Public participation in geoengineering decision-making; Disclosure of geoengineering research and open publication of results; Independent assessment of impacts; and Governance before deployment.

25 Should scien(fic research on climate engineering by encouraged? Argument against: Moral hazard ; Agen(on will be drawn away from emission reduc(ons Counterargument: Only we, scien(sts, can do this kind of research in the neutral, objec(ve manner that is needed Argument against: Slippery slope ; before we know it our results will be used in a manner that we have not foreseen or recommended Counterargument: It may well be that our findings will indicate that climate engineering is either not feasible or far too risky to be ever considered

26 The GAW Mission Systematic Global Monitoring of the Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere. Analysis and Assessment in Support of International Conventions. Development of Air Pollution and Climate Predictive Capability. 26

27 27 GAW s Foundation - Collecting adequate information on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on the consequences of the anthropogenic impact on a global scale is valuable and possible only IF all the relevant measurements are expressed in the same units or on the same scale and IF data from the countries and at different sites are comparable

28 WWRP a seamless programme WWRP at a glance Challenges Groups Projects Working Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 28 2

29 Trends Services are becoming more and more sophis(cated, Internet based and without a clear ins(tu(onal brand Resource mobilisa(on required From forecas(ng to impact assessment Value chains! WMO and NMHSs role in the global weather enterprise, can WMO and NMHSs expect to con(nue to «push» the future global data processing and forecast products? User interac(ons forces explora(on of «What works», which can be quite different from what WMO Congress or NMHSs push «Big data» vs the tradi(onal WMO controlled observa(onal data flows WIGOS and WIS, do they succeed in becoming the generic way of global data management for research and opera(onal data? Cfr test footer 29 ICSU, RDA

30 Possible topics for CASXVII and TECO17 (July 2017) interactions outside of NMHSs (private sector, academia, independent environmental research sector, communications sector) R&D in the value chain in weather, climate, environmental services Young scientists community mobilisation Resource mobilization for WWRP and GAW projects HPC, storage, data legacy through niversal WIGOS ; massive parallellisation; big data New issues: biomass fires SE Asia: issues; stakeholder and resources mobilisation Aviation end-to-end-products Agriculture (food-energy-climate-triad) 30

31 Thank you for your attention Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute PO Box 43 Blindern 0313 Oslo, Norway