22 April 2016 ICEF ROADMAP. What business needs. Ben Vickers

Transcription

1 ICEF ROADMAP What business needs Ben Vickers

2 WHAT BUSINESSES AND INVESTORS NEED 1

3 DIFFERENT GRANULARITY FOR DIFFERENT AUDIENCES 2

4 TALKING HELPS GET THINGS DONE 3

5 UPDATES MAKE FOR A BETTER STORY 4

6 AMERICAS INSTALLED CAPACITY 2012 AND 2040 AND PROJECTED CAPACITY ADDITIONS, BY TECHNOLOGY (GW) Annual capacity additions, % 13% 27% 4% 8% 1,571GW 61% 19% 2,696GW 12% 26% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5

7 CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY REGION AND BY TECHNOLOGY, ($BN REAL) APAC Americas RoW Europe MEA $1,760bn $1,738bn $1,372bn $1,185bn $6,146bn 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Solar Fossil fuels Wind Other renewables Nuclear Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6

8 COAL AND CO2 PRICE PROJECTION, ($T, NOMINAL) Europe China EU CO California CO2 India China CO Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7

9 IMPACT OF FLOATING FOUNDATION ON CONVENTIONAL CAPEX BREAKDOWN, 2015 (%) Installation cables Installation Turbine Installation Foundations Substations 8% 7% 4% 33% 7% 18% Development Turbine nacelle assembly 4% 2% 4% Capex 45% 12% 3% 14% Blades Castings and forgings Drive Train Foundations 20% 7% 7% Tower 6% Turbine Other Cables Development Wind turbine supply Balance of plant Installation Impacted by floating foundations Note: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8

10 GET THE DECISION MAKERS TO TALK TO EACH OTHER 9

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12 MARKET SHARE IN CCS TECHNOLOGIES 100% 90% unknown TBD unknown 80% 70% 60% Air Liquide Cansolv unknown GE Lurgi 50% 40% 30% 20% Mitsubishi UOP Air Products UOP UOP UOP Lurgi 10% 0% Alstom Aker Alstom Power plant Industrial Gas processing plant Oil refining Coal gasification Note: The pool of projects considered here includes all projects in our high case forecast in Figure 1. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11

13 WHO S SPENDING WHAT WHERE Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12

14 HISTORIC AND FUTURE COST OF FLOATING AND CONVENTIONAL FOUNDATIONS, (USDM/MW) Hywind demonstration Fukushima phases 2-3 Monopile Gravity Jacket Tripod 20 Fukushima phase 1 Floating Historic learning curve 15 Historic learning rate for floating foundations = 34% IDEOL demonstration Projected learning curve 10 5 WindFloat demonstration Floating foundation in 2020: $6.02m/MW Hywind Scotland Conventional foundation in 2020: $0.74m/MW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, METI, Statoil 13

15 EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY COST OUTLOOK, EV battery pack costs ($/kwh) 1,200 Global volumes (GWh) 400 1,100 1, BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index Global EV li-ion battery production BNEF observed values Long-term cost range 100 Moderate scenario: 15% learning rate Aggressive scenario: 22% learning rate Note: Values from are based on BNEF s annual battery price index. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 14

16 WHAT BUSINESS IS LOOKING FOR IN A ROADMAP What works: Being close to investors and close to business Having numbers and the names that go with those numbers And their phone number Giving information in the right format for each audience Defining the measures of success, in addition to markets Show what people are missing Don t forget business must decide where to put its money 15

17 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 16

18 MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system Ben Vickers