Mitigation and Adaptation Studies

Transcription

1 Oluwakemi Izomo

2 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies

3 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies Class 7: Climate and Coastal Hazards Questions and Conclusions: How well do we know past and current changes: - We have comprehensive observations that document the variability of the system - Detecting changes in dynamics and system state is nevertheless difficult due to large variability - knowledge about changes in variables and underlying processes is evolving rapidly How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?

4 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies

5 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies Class 8: Climate and Coastal Hazards, Public Health, Food Security

6 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies Class 8: Climate and Coastal Hazards, Public Health, Food Security Contents: Assignments Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards - (Detecting Changes) - Assessing Knowledge - Understanding the Processes and Causes - Predicting Future Changes - Having Foresight Public Health Food-Water-Energy Nexus - -

7 Understanding the Causes

8 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

9 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

10 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? climate change 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus. IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON

11 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? climate change 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus. IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON

12 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? climate change 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus. IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON

13 Understanding the Causes

14 Understanding the Causes

15 Understanding the Causes

16 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change

17 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change

18 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change

19 Understanding the Causes

20 Understanding the Causes

21 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

22 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

23 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

24 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

25 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

26 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

27 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

28 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.

29 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?

30 Assessing Knowledge How solid is our knowledge? Example sea level rise Accepted knowledge in 2000: Greenland: no significant contribution to sea 6.0 m Greenland level rise Antarctica: minor contribution 4.5 m West Antarctic Main contribution: steric changes Knowledge in 2016: Greenland: is contributing, is accelerating; increasing potential for a large contribution to sea level rise due to deep warm water around Greenland and impact of changes in atmospheric circulation. Antarctica: West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) will contribute 4.5 m How worried should we be? Contribution to Global Sea Level 800 Years? 100 Years? What should we be worried about?

31 Assessing Knowledge

32 Assessing Knowledge

33 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?

34 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?

35 Understanding the Processes

36 Understanding the Processes

37 Understanding the Processes

38 Understanding the Processes Local sea level is the result of many local, regional and global processes and can only be fully understood in a complex-system approach

39 Understanding the Processes

40 Understanding the Processes Local Sea Level: vertical distance between sea surface and land surface

41 Understanding the Processes Local Sea Level: vertical distance between sea surface and land surface Local Sea Level (LSL) changes = Sea Surface Height (SSH) changes - Land surface height (LSH) changes.

42 Understanding the Processes Local Sea Level: vertical distance between sea surface and land surface Local Sea Level (LSL) changes = Sea Surface Height (SSH) changes - Land surface height (LSH) changes. LSL(x,t) = SSH(x,t) - LSH(x,t)

43 Understanding the Processes

44 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part

45 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months:

46 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months:

47 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months:

48 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months: Short-period variations are the result of local to regional processes

49 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part

50 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Important for projections of LSL

51 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Important for projections of LSL

52 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Important for projections of LSL Long-period variations are the result of local to global processes

53 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Comments on the relation between mass changes (exchange and redistribution) and LSL Important for projections of LSL Long-period variations are the result of local to global processes

54 Understanding the Processes

55 Understanding the Processes LSL change Load on ocean areas Load on land areas

56 Understanding the Processes LSL change All mass movements: - change the geoid Load on ocean areas - displace the ocean bottom vertically Load on land areas - redistribute the water masses in the ocean

57 Understanding the Processes Fingerprints of the large ice sheets Plag and Juettner, 2001

58 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes Greenland Antarctica Plag, 2006

59 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica Plag, 2006

60 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica reconstructed LSL Plag, 2006

61 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica reconstructed LSL Example global average: 1.14 mm/yr at tide gauges 0.90 mm/yr global average Plag, 2006

62 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica reconstructed LSL Greenland Ice sheet contribution: mm/yr Antarctica Ice sheet contribution: mm/yr Example global average: 1.14 mm/yr at tide gauges 0.90 mm/yr global average Plag, 2006

63 Understanding the Causes

64 Understanding the Causes

65 Understanding the Causes

66 Understanding the Causes

67 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change

68 Understanding the Causes

69 Understanding the Causes

70 Understanding the Causes

71 Understanding the Causes

72 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?

73 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?