Energy and Climate Security for a World of 10 Billion People

Transcription

1 Energy and Climate Security for a World of 10 Billion People Dr. Gerhard Knies,Dr. Oliver Steinmetz & Mouldi Miled DESERTEC Foundation Alexandrie 31 mars 2010

2 Agenda - The Context The Concept From Concept to Organisation DESERTEC Foundation DESERTEC s Industrial Initiative

3 Strategic Objectives Energy and Climate Security for a World of 10 Billion People

4 Climate Change is changing living conditions on Earth CC is REAL CC can get OUT OF CONTROLE: Δ T<2 amust CC is FAST: 25 years left for T < 2 CC is MAN-MADE: MADE who did it? (we know him!) Continued CC is CRASH for humankind: stop it! Stop it! -- Who? How? DESERTEC: Clean Power from Deserts for a sustainable world with10 billion people is a promising approach to stop CC in due time

5 World-Population & Earth s carrying cap bn NOW 5 bn Earth Carrying capacity: 5 bn 3 bn

6 Clean energy key to Humankind Security stability issues for an Earth with 10 billion people Limit POPULATION to 10 bn people more Civilization & wealth per cap Global and inter-generational justice Clean and sufficient energy/power can give for 10 bn people ecological and social stability more WATER desalination reprocessing more FOOD Irrigation, fertilizer distribution Bio Diversity Climate stability 6

7 Power demand & supply scenario (TWh/y) in MENA and EU Electricity [TWh/y] % Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear MENA: Transition Mix including export to Europe and power for water desalination Source: DLR studies Electricity [TWh/y] Year mport! I Year Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear EU: By clean power from deserts EU may gain years in the fight against climate change, by importing 17% from MENA Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear energy can be phased out completely, and oil, gas and coal largely.

8 Potential of Renewable Energies in EU-MENA Potential for electricity production in TWh/a Biomass Geothermal Solar TWh/a TWh/a TWh/a DESERTS: 6 hours sun shine = world energy demand 1 year TWh/a TWh/a Max Wind Hydro Min

9 How much power will be needed by 10 billion people? average power per person and year 2050 electro mobility per person and year World population 2050: 9-10 billion people 2500 solar hours per/y: Data 2006 World 3.1 OECD 8.6 USA 12.2 India 0.9 Germany 6.4 5MWh/y 1MWh/y km/person: 10,000 Germany 2007: 13,000 person/car 2 Electr./100km: 20kWh 60, TWh/y (+/- 20%) 2009: 18,000 TWh/y in 2050: 50% as solar power from DESERTS DESERTEC for 30,000 TWh/y (+/- 20%) 12,000 solar GigaWatt collectors globally 35 years, 1GW/day Saving the planet will become largest business case of the decades ahead of us 9

10 DESERTEC Concept for EU-MENA 1/7 th of world 1,400 GW solar collector capacity Studies by DLR for EUMENA region -MED-CSP - TRANS-CSP for German gov t CLUB OF ROME White Paper Sketch of a possible infrastructure t for a sustainable supply of power to Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EU-MENA)

11 Powerhouse desert for the world 12,000 solar GigaWatt from Deserts + HVDC super grid to a World with 10 billion People 3000 km 10% loss Within 3000 km from deserts: To more than 90% of world pop clean power from deserts available. 11

12 Social Consequences The wealth, well-being and peace of our partner countries in and near desert regions depends on Access to energy DESERTEC power Access to water DESERTEC desalination Conflicts, e.g. Jordan river: Israel / Palestine / Gaza Access to food even in currently arid regions?! Birth rates are inversely proportional to wealth!

13 A sustainable energy system for a world population of 10 billion is feasible There are many clean and renewable sources: Solar (PV and CSP), wind, waves, tidal, hydro, biomass, geothermal, 7 criteria i for a global l solution: 1. climate security 2. enough for 10 billion people, 3. accessible to >90% of world pop. p 4. long term source security 5. sufficiently fast deployable (1GW/day): 6. cost stability 7. available by demand There is to my knowledge only 1 such source complying with all 7 criteria: Solar power from deserts generated e by CSTP because of heat storage for day+night operation, best global availability 13

14 Concentrating solar collector technologies: basic layout schemes Absorber Tube Absorber tube and reconcentrator Curved mirror Linear Concentration conc: 100, T: ~ 500 C Curved mirror Pipe with thermal fluid Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel Receiver / Engine Reflector Solar Receiver Point Concentration conc: 1000+, T: ~ 1000 C Dish/Engine Heliostats t Central Receiver

15 Parabolic trough collectors Kramer Junction USA, 1990

16 Andasol 1: Andalusia, Spain, operating since 2009 molten salt heat storage = solar power day+night 16

17 Cost for CSP power plants + EU-MENA Supergrid for 15% of EU consumption Year Transfer Capacity GW 2x5 8x5 14 x 5 20 x 5 Electricity Transfer TWh/y Capacity Factor Turnover Billion /y Land Area CSP 15 x x x x 50 km x km HVDC 3100 x x x x 1.0 Investment CSP Billion grid HVDC Elec. Cost CSP /kwh HVDC Power plants 17

18 Where is the energy/climate problem? Resources Energy resource DESERT : over-abundant Capital: existing Initial DELTA-Financing to be solved Technologies Solar techno (CSP): working Heat storage techno: working Wind techno working HVDC transmission techno.: working Desalination techno working Implementation 1 GW CSP collector per day feasible 18

19 DESERTEC from Concept to Organisation

20 DESERTEC Foundation Non-profit foundation, founded 2008 in Berlin Objectives Roadblock Remover for clean energy from deserts Worldwide lobbying for favourable political & financial conditions Defending environmental and social standards Building alliances, mobilise partners, drive pilot projects Spreading know-how, promoting best practices Co-ordinating activities around the Globe Helping countries learn from each other Founders Private persons from the worldwide TREC network from their own money Additional Co-Founders, Sponsors, Partners welcome

21 DESERTEC Foundation Objectives Concept Feasibility studies to answer per country! - the questions What for? What? How? When? Acceptance on the ground Inform / infect (seminars, Conferences ) Involve: Politics, Business, Academic, Civil Society Realise projects & pilot projects Achieve willingness / Buy-in To invest: Incentives, Partnerships (De)regulation Finance

22 DESERTEC s Industrial Initiative (DII) Project company DII GmbH, founded October 30 th 2009 Shareholders Currently screening additional shareholders and partners, preferably from additional countries

23 DII Objectives In 3 years Creation a of ffavourable regulatory and dlegislative l environment Development of a roll-out plan Proposal of concrete reference projects Additional or more detailed studies, where needed (e.g. on feasibility) Pilot projects already during these 3 years Fostering local / regional development!

24 How to implement? 3 Phases for a DESERTEC roll-out programme DESERTEC GLOBAL DEPLOYMENT PLAN A rough implementation scheme: Phase 1 6 years HIGH SPEED MARKET INTRODUCTION 20 GW policy driven external financial support : Phase 2 20 years COLLECTOR PRODUCTION SCALE UP , market driven GW/year: +30% p.a., duplication in 2.5 years Phase 3 25 years HIGH SPEED DEPLOYMENT , market driven average 1.2 GW-coll/day, investment ca. 3 bn /day Fast completion of phase 1 = key to success! Main task for DESERTEC Foundation 24

25 THANK YOU